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2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

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#1
Thunder98

Posted 31 December 2016 - 12:48 PM

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2016 is pretty much in the books now. The upcoming forecast turns much wetter next week with a potential of strong series of storms impacting all of California. 

 

Attached File  SantaMariawxforcast19.PNG   108.59KB   0 downloads

 

 

610temp.new.gif

 

610prcp.new.gif



#2
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 31 December 2016 - 12:59 PM

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I am glad you started a new thread for California weather for 2017! Hopefully one of the moderators pins the thread so that it stays near the top of the list in the unlikely case it doesn't get updated for a few days.


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#3
happ

Posted 31 December 2016 - 03:38 PM

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Outlook for rainfall is very good into the new year!



#4
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 December 2016 - 03:41 PM

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Not 2017 yet. Yesterday models were showing offshore flow for the first weekend of 2017. Now they show a possible atmospheric river. Who knows what tomorrow will show. Hopefully they come into agreement soon.

#5
Thunder98

Posted 31 December 2016 - 03:47 PM

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18z GFS

 

Attached File  18zGFS.PNG   283.5KB   0 downloads

 

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Attached File  18zGFS4.PNG   278.38KB   0 downloads


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#6
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:28 AM

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Happy New Year everyone!!

 

0.80" fell here in Orange from yesterday to today, bringing my season total from July 1 to December 31 to 6.84".

 

Here's hoping for more storminess for the winter months!



#7
happ

Posted 01 January 2017 - 03:21 AM

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Finally Southern California is experiencing what northern California has enjoyed since October! Central Valley, Sierra Nevada receiving good moisture. 


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#8
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2017 - 10:24 AM

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Someone still needs to pin this.

 

Sunny weather so far today. This could be the sunniest day of the week.



#9
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:23 PM

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Marine layer is quickly reasserting itself.

#10
happ

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:07 PM

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Cool start to new year. Looking forward to more rainfall this week.

 

58/ 43



#11
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Someone still needs to pin this.

 

Sunny weather so far today. This could be the sunniest day of the week.

 

I noticed that this thread is now pinned as is the January 2017 Pacific NW thread.



#12
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Attached File  2016Temps.png   22.82KB   0 downloads

Attached File  2016TempsDeptAvg.png   21.36KB   0 downloads

Attached File  2016Precip.png   16.11KB   0 downloads


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#13
Thunder98

Posted 02 January 2017 - 08:48 AM

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Get the Sandbags ready!

cmc_total_precip_norcal_39.png


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#14
happ

Posted 02 January 2017 - 09:59 AM

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Get the Sandbags ready!

cmc_total_precip_norcal_39.png

 

That is a very impressive graph. Mainly NorCal and Central Cal get the goods but nice projections for SoCal also.


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#15
iFred

Posted 02 January 2017 - 12:20 PM

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Anyone tracking cold anomalies for SF and the Valley?

#16
Thunder98

Posted 02 January 2017 - 02:27 PM

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Here is the monthly YTD rain totals for Santa Maria Airport, starting from July 1st,
We are above average so far!

July: 0.00" | Avg: 0.03" | 0%
August: 0.00" | Avg: 0.02" | 0%
September: 0.00 | Avg: 0.14" | 0%
October: 1.28" | Avg: 0.60" | 213%
November: 1.30" | Avg: 1.33" | 98%
December: 2.22" | Avg: 2.12" | 105%
Overall: 4.80" | Avg: 4.24" | 113%


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#17
Thunder98

Posted 02 January 2017 - 02:29 PM

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d00f0e356f32047112cf3a00fdcd801111608955



#18
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 January 2017 - 03:10 PM

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They are lowering the rain chances for next weekend. Otherwise a very damp and gloomy cold day today with little rain to deliver.

#19
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 02 January 2017 - 07:47 PM

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They are lowering the rain chances for next weekend. Otherwise a very damp and gloomy cold day today with little rain to deliver.

 

For whose area? I don't think Orange County's chances have changed since yesterday.

 

Geez, I didn't realize how much the San Diego NWS was downplaying the possible AR event this weekend on their afternoon AFD as far as effects on far Socal. I just read an updated NWS Oxnard AFD, and they are much more bullish on the rain prospects for their entire CWA, which begins north and west of Orange County, even if their more northern areas are more favored. 



#20
Chris

Posted 03 January 2017 - 08:59 AM

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Hopefully 2017 goes down as the year that the drought ended.  January is off to a wet start.


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#21
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2017 - 09:07 AM

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Low clouds are gone, but still a lot of mid to high clouds.

#22
happ

Posted 03 January 2017 - 10:17 AM

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If today's maximum is under 60° it will be the 4th consecutive day in the 50's since January 2013 when there were 5 days straight below 60°.

 

Monday: 57/ 51


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#23
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2017 - 08:18 PM

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Sunset is now later than when we switched back to Standard Time in November. It will be reaching 5:00 PM next week. Meanwhile, sunrise continues to get a few seconds later each day.

It now looks like chances of rain are being removed for this weekend, at least south of Los Angeles. Still hope to get something Sunday night or Monday.

#24
happ

Posted 04 January 2017 - 09:56 AM

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Some weather geeks are complaining that the "Artic event" is missing in-action down here. Portland is on the 45th Parallel along with Minneapolis/ Montreal/ Nova Scotia [Seattle latitude = Duluth/ Halifax]. I'm enjoying the discussions. But no complaints about precipitation especially in Central Cal where they need it most. Hopefully this activity will continue long-term.

 

Tuesday: 58/ 47



#25
happ

Posted 04 January 2017 - 01:48 PM

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Central Cal getting pounded; San Lorenzo river over run its bank in Santa Cruz.



#26
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 04 January 2017 - 09:12 PM

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Rain is not showing up very well on the radar at desertweather.com. San Francisco barely got over an inch.

#27
happ

Posted 05 January 2017 - 07:57 AM

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First rainfall of the new year overnight. Storm track looks quite favorable for California into next week; maybe too much rain in NorCal.  When was the last time we had too much rainfall? ;)

 

Wednesday: 62/ 48

 

0.55



#28
happ

Posted 05 January 2017 - 08:25 AM

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I can get use to this all winter!

 

 

Attached Files


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#29
happ

Posted 05 January 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Aside from low elevation freezing temps tonight in NorCal the freeze line could exceed 10,000' in the Sierra Nevada this weekend under extremely heavy rainfall. The possibility of flooding is very real. What a difference this year has made in comparison to the past 6.

 

63/ 54

 

0.65

7.21 [year jul-jun]



#30
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 January 2017 - 12:18 AM

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I am just hoping that these storms don't bypass Socal just to the north. While I am really glad that northern and central CA are getting copious rains, I feel left out if we don't get at least some of the action. It only rained here in Orange overnight last night until about mid-morning, and there wasn't any more rain for the remainder of the day.



#31
BLI snowman

Posted 06 January 2017 - 12:35 AM

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Definitely looks like a significant flood event is on the way for the Sacramento Valley rivers and likely the Reno area as well. Lots of snow will be melting on Sunday and Monday.



#32
Thunder98

Posted 06 January 2017 - 06:37 AM

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Its 21F degrees colder than this time yesterday. Currently its 36F and yesterday at this time was 57F! It is also much colder than forecasted.


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#33
happ

Posted 06 January 2017 - 09:08 AM

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I am just hoping that these storms don't bypass Socal just to the north. While I am really glad that northern and central CA are getting copious rains, I feel left out if we don't get at least some of the action. It only rained here in Orange overnight last night until about mid-morning, and there wasn't any more rain for the remainder of the day.

 

Well, at least most areas are averaging above normal rainfall in SoCal. I also hope we get in on some heavy rain this weekend/ early next week but the hillsides are now lush with grass and the reservoirs are filling up! 

 

L: 51



#34
happ

Posted 06 January 2017 - 05:46 PM

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Bay Area/ Sierras in for some mighty rainfall.  :)

 

Still iffy south of Santa Barbara.

 

MIRAMAR            477 :   70 /  53 /  0.06 /

 

65/ 51
 



#35
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:46 AM

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It rained a little bit this morning, but now there are just a lot of high clouds. Looks like Monday's storm should be pretty good for L.A. but weaken drastically by the time it gets to San Diego.

Latest sunrise in Pacific Standard Time was this morning for Orange County.

#36
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 January 2017 - 02:09 PM

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San Francisco has picked up a measly 0.69" so far in the last two days and not all of it is from the atmospheric river. Where is the heavy rain?

#37
happ

Posted 07 January 2017 - 06:51 PM

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Light rain overnight produced 0.12 for today; heavy showers begin tomorrow night. It seems like most of the rain happens at night in LA. 

 

70/ 51

 

Jan: 0.77



#38
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 January 2017 - 07:17 PM

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Lots of sunshine today after a few morning sprinkles. It looks like the atmospheric river is not as strong as expected, even up north.

#39
happ

Posted 08 January 2017 - 08:46 AM

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Atmospheric river appears to be under-performing but that is good news for Sierra.  Perhaps isolated flooding. 

 

SQUAW VLY 8000   N/A     36  36 100 S28  

 

Warm morning: 61°



#40
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 January 2017 - 12:04 PM

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It's getting quite warm and the air is dry like offshore flow.

#41
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 January 2017 - 12:23 PM

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76 already. Typical Santa Ana conditions.

#42
happ

Posted 08 January 2017 - 03:29 PM

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Satellite loop nicely illustrates the GOA upper low spinning up tropical moisture. Went hiking this afternoon; kind of sweaty [dewpoints in 40/50's.]

 

Rain heading south :)



#43
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 January 2017 - 05:29 PM

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Beautiful, warm day today and I got out to enjoy the sunshine and spring-like weather, but tomorrow is back to work and I hope to see some decent rain. The storm will need to fight off the ridge that gave us the nice weather.



#44
happ

Posted 08 January 2017 - 07:47 PM

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Reports of snowfall at 7000' in southern Sierra now; freeze line is lowering.  Quite warm today w/ several locations above 80°.

 

79/ 54



#45
happ

Posted 09 January 2017 - 08:59 AM

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Heavy rainfall/ lightning occurred overnight; now just drizzle. January is looking even more promising than December especially in NorCal. Lots of snow melt/ flooding in the Sierra but snow levels are much lower today.  Great pattern for more rain this week.

 

0.70

 

Jan: 1.47

 

Year [jul-jun]: 8.03



#46
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 09 January 2017 - 02:55 PM

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Anybody see this about the big Sequoia tree that fell down?

http://news.national...len-california/

#47
happ

Posted 10 January 2017 - 11:29 AM

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This has been a remarkable winter. I'll look through data to see when was the last time California experienced on-going periods of rainfall or post question on Weather West. Just drizzle so far, shy of 0.10  but w/ more substantial rain likely tonight.

 

Monday: 64/ 54



#48
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 January 2017 - 01:38 PM

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Anybody see this about the big Sequoia tree that fell down?

http://news.national...len-california/

 

I saw a post on Weather West the other day that the Tunnel Tree had fallen and the Orange County Register (Orange County newspaper) had an article about it today.



#49
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 January 2017 - 01:40 PM

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Heavy rainfall/ lightning occurred overnight; now just drizzle. January is looking even more promising than December especially in NorCal. Lots of snow melt/ flooding in the Sierra but snow levels are much lower today.  Great pattern for more rain this week.

 

0.70

 

Jan: 1.47

 

Year [jul-jun]: 8.03

 

I saw some of that lightning the other night to my NW, just before it began raining here in Orange.



#50
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 January 2017 - 01:41 PM

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It has been raining lightly here in Orange off and on for much of the late morning and early afternoon so far. The main front is still in the Bay area, but Socal is under a moist westerly flow at this time.