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2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread


Thunder98

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2016 is pretty much in the books now. The upcoming forecast turns much wetter next week with a potential of strong series of storms impacting all of California. 

 

SantaMariawxforcast19.PNG

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

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Here is the monthly YTD rain totals for Santa Maria Airport, starting from July 1st,
We are above average so far!

July: 0.00" | Avg: 0.03" | 0%
August: 0.00" | Avg: 0.02" | 0%
September: 0.00 | Avg: 0.14" | 0%
October: 1.28" | Avg: 0.60" | 213%
November: 1.30" | Avg: 1.33" | 98%
December: 2.22" | Avg: 2.12" | 105%
Overall: 4.80" | Avg: 4.24" | 113%

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They are lowering the rain chances for next weekend. Otherwise a very damp and gloomy cold day today with little rain to deliver.

 

For whose area? I don't think Orange County's chances have changed since yesterday.

 

Geez, I didn't realize how much the San Diego NWS was downplaying the possible AR event this weekend on their afternoon AFD as far as effects on far Socal. I just read an updated NWS Oxnard AFD, and they are much more bullish on the rain prospects for their entire CWA, which begins north and west of Orange County, even if their more northern areas are more favored. 

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Sunset is now later than when we switched back to Standard Time in November. It will be reaching 5:00 PM next week. Meanwhile, sunrise continues to get a few seconds later each day.

 

It now looks like chances of rain are being removed for this weekend, at least south of Los Angeles. Still hope to get something Sunday night or Monday.

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Some weather geeks are complaining that the "Artic event" is missing in-action down here. Portland is on the 45th Parallel along with Minneapolis/ Montreal/ Nova Scotia [seattle latitude = Duluth/ Halifax]. I'm enjoying the discussions. But no complaints about precipitation especially in Central Cal where they need it most. Hopefully this activity will continue long-term.

 

Tuesday: 58/ 47

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First rainfall of the new year overnight. Storm track looks quite favorable for California into next week; maybe too much rain in NorCal.  When was the last time we had too much rainfall? ;)

 

Wednesday: 62/ 48

 

0.55

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Aside from low elevation freezing temps tonight in NorCal the freeze line could exceed 10,000' in the Sierra Nevada this weekend under extremely heavy rainfall. The possibility of flooding is very real. What a difference this year has made in comparison to the past 6.

 

63/ 54

 

0.65

7.21 [year jul-jun]

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I am just hoping that these storms don't bypass Socal just to the north. While I am really glad that northern and central CA are getting copious rains, I feel left out if we don't get at least some of the action. It only rained here in Orange overnight last night until about mid-morning, and there wasn't any more rain for the remainder of the day.

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I am just hoping that these storms don't bypass Socal just to the north. While I am really glad that northern and central CA are getting copious rains, I feel left out if we don't get at least some of the action. It only rained here in Orange overnight last night until about mid-morning, and there wasn't any more rain for the remainder of the day.

 

Well, at least most areas are averaging above normal rainfall in SoCal. I also hope we get in on some heavy rain this weekend/ early next week but the hillsides are now lush with grass and the reservoirs are filling up! 

 

L: 51

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Atmospheric river appears to be under-performing but that is good news for Sierra.  Perhaps isolated flooding. 

 

SQUAW VLY 8000   N/A     36  36 100 S28  

 

Warm morning: 61°

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Satellite loop nicely illustrates the GOA upper low spinning up tropical moisture. Went hiking this afternoon; kind of sweaty [dewpoints in 40/50's.]

 

Rain heading south :)

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