2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's hard to believe February starts tomorrow. Winter will be half over in a few days.

 

We have gained back half an hour of Fall Back without any time change. Compare November 9 to January 31, which have about the same solar declination. The Equation of Time (solar noon) is what has changed.

[Guest happ]

If ECMWF verifies, there could significant rainfall coming our way, esp NorCal   

 

  Tuesday: 77/ 58

[Guest happ]

January was very wet here in Orange as well with 9.50" for the month and a season to date total (since July 1) of 16.34".

 

Dan, could you share your observation of SW rain effects via Santa Ana mountains? 

[Guest happ]

This looks scary; reminds me of last Feb's extreme heat

 

[Guest happ]

Currently, just light precipitation scattered about the state north of Point Conception.

 

Wednesday: 74/ 49

[Guest happ]

NWS_SACRAMENTO

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Dan, could you share your observation of SW rain effects via Santa Ana mountains? 

 

On the Weather West blog, I noticed that two bloggers, one from Redlands and one from Ontario had about a 3 inch difference in their January rainfall totals. I decided to look at the map and realized that Redlands is directly NE of the two highest peaks of the Santa Ana Mountains, nicknamed Saddleback, which consists of Modjeska Peak and Santiago Peak, while Ontario is NE of the Chino Hills, which are of much lower elevation. Since the flow has been out of the SW in many systems this year, I figured that Redlands is being rain shadowed to some extent by the Santa Ana Mountains. Also when I have traveled down the I-15 from Corona to Temecula, I have always noticed just how much drier the terrain is around and just to the north of Lake Elsinore than it is further south toward Murrieta and Temecula or further north in Corona. Some of the hills to the east of I-15 in this area practically look like desert, as opposed to the chaparral more typically seen in other similar areas. I believe the high peaks of Saddleback provide a more severe rain shadow to this immediate area, making it a drier microclimate compared to the Corona area and the Murrieta / Temecula area.

[Guest happ]

On the Weather West blog, I noticed that two bloggers, one from Redlands and one from Ontario had about a 3 inch difference in their January rainfall totals. I decided to look at the map and realized that Redlands is directly NE of the two highest peaks of the Santa Ana Mountains, nicknamed Saddleback, which consists of Modjeska Peak and Santiago Peak, while Ontario is NE of the Chino Hills, which are of much lower elevation. Since the flow has been out of the SW in many systems this year, I figured that Redlands is being rain shadowed to some extent by the Santa Ana Mountains. Also when I have traveled down the I-15 from Corona to Temecula, I have always noticed just how much drier the terrain is around and just to the north of Lake Elsinore than it is further south toward Murrieta and Temecula or further north in Corona. Some of the hills to the east of I-15 in this area practically look like desert, as opposed to the chaparral more typically seen in other similar areas. I believe the high peaks of Saddleback provide a more severe rain shadow to this immediate area, making it a drier microclimate compared to the Corona area and the Murrieta / Temecula area.

 

Thanks Dan

 

We can't underestimate the influence of the many mountain ranges in SoCal. Case-in-point, Pasadena compared to Palmdale; world of difference.

 

I am getting increasingly hopeful that another AR-type set up will form into next week but it still looks like the bulk of moisture will be more north this time [north of Bay Area].

 

Thursday: 69/ 50

 

Drizzle: 59° 

[Guest happ]

Very light/ scattered showers; a fine winter's day

 

60/ 54

 

0.10

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's about as cold as it gets in California. Let's hope the winter weather lovers can get out for a nice picnic or barbecue today.

[Guest happ]

European model    prevailed

 

A little bummed out over lack of rainfall down here. NorCal is under full force Pacific assault this week. 

 

Saturday: 67/ 54

[Anti Marine Layer]

Satellite imagery and weather observations show that the unseasonal June Gloom has pushed further inland throughout the morning rather than burning off.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sgx&sid=KRNM&num=72&raw=0

[Guest happ]

It has been raining for several hours and looks to remain wet today. Slightly over 0.50 so far.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The clouds are actually useful when they bring some rain, unlike yesterday. Rain has stopped for now, however, and it looks like San Diego will once again be left out. John Wayne Airport got over an inch, however, which is unusual for them, since they usually have some of the lowest rainfall totals in most storms.

[Guest happ]

Showers ended this afternoon w/ a good chance of more rain tonight/ tomorrow.

 

59/ 52

 

Rain: 0.78

Feb: 0.88

Year [jul-jun]: 16.11

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's raining pretty hard now, despite the forecast for light showers.

[Guest happ]

La Nina may have little to do with the delightful rain season this year but 2011 comes to mind

 

 

[Guest happ]

SNOW

 

[richard mann]

(.. cross reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-late-fall-early-winter-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=217726

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lots of green on the hills now, but by next fall it will be new fuel for fires.

[Guest happ]

Moist low level onshore flow today.

 

65/ 58

 

0.19

[Guest happ]

More light showers overnight but much heavier rainfall in NorCal. And yet another storm for SoCal Friday/ Saturday.

 

Rain: 0.15

Feb: 1.23

[Guest happ]

Today's cloud cover/ mild conditions reminded me of a 'May Gray' day

 

72/ 60

[Guest happ]

More rain tonight/ tomorrow before it dries out for a while. Models predict another series of storms later next week.

 

80/ 57

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cold front is moving very slowly. It still has not started to rain here.

[Guest happ]

Rain finally began early this evening; hope to pick up 0.50 or more tonight.

 

64/ 56

[Guest happ]

Rain is tapering off after overnight light showers. I recorded what I had hoped for [over 0.50]. Next storm system could occur in another 5 days; perfect pattern this winter.

 

0.58

Feb: 1.81

Year [jul-jun]: 17.04

[Jesse]

Rain is tapering off after overnight light showers. I recorded what I had hoped for [over 0.50]. Next storm system could occur in another 5 days; perfect pattern this winter.

 

0.58

Feb: 1.81

Year [jul-jun]: 17.04

Glad to see you guys finally get some drought relief down there! Hope it keeps up.

[Guest happ]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
139 PM PST Sat Feb 11 2017

CAZ054-088-120100-
Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range-
Santa Clarita Valley-
Including the cities of Acton, Mount Wilson, Sandberg,
Santa Clarita, Newhall, and Valencia
139 PM PST Sat Feb 11 2017

.NOW...
AT 1:30 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SHOWERS OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING.

The heavy downpours MAY cause ponding of water on area roadways
and local brief flooding of low lying areas and intersections.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Demolition of the marine layer looks to be a late night to early morning affair.

[Guest happ]

Looks like all the convective energy is well to the north. 

 

64/ 57

[Jesse]

Looks like all the convective energy is well to the north.

 

64/ 57

Looks like you still scored a coolish day!

[Guest happ]

"It was the first time in the 48-year history of Lake Oroville that the reservoir was so full that it triggered uncontrolled releases down an emergency spillway." http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-historic-spill-20170211-story.html

[Guest happ]

CPC accuracy isn't great esp on weekends but hoping this forecast verifies.  

 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

0.25" fell here in Orange from Friday's storm.

[Dan the Weatherman]

CPC accuracy isn't great esp on weekends but hoping this forecast verifies.  

 

Hopefully the brunt of the moisture is from central CA on south, so that more southern lakes and reservoirs such as Lake Cachuma can have a chance to fill. Norcal needs a bit of a break from the rain.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Short Term Forecast

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA

139 PM PST Sat Feb 11 2017

 

CAZ054-088-120100-

Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range-

Santa Clarita Valley-

Including the cities of Acton, Mount Wilson, Sandberg,

Santa Clarita, Newhall, and Valencia

139 PM PST Sat Feb 11 2017

 

.NOW...

AT 1:30 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...AND ARE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SHOWERS OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS

AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO

EXPAND OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING.

 

The heavy downpours MAY cause ponding of water on area roadways

and local brief flooding of low lying areas and intersections.

 

 

I heard a Flash Flood Warning regarding these t-storms announced on TV as an emergency broadcast message yesterday while watching the Pebble Beach Pro Am.

[Guest happ]

Dan the Weatherman, on 12 Feb 2017 - 4:35 PM, said:Dan the Weatherman, on 12 Feb 2017 - 4:35 PM, said:

I heard a Flash Flood Warning regarding these t-storms announced on TV as an emergency broadcast message yesterday while watching the Pebble Beach Pro Am.

 

I could see building altocumulus to the NW but the flow was to the NE yesterday.  Opposite today w/ offshore winds. Monterey/ Carmel looks so green like the rest of California this winter.

 

75/ 50

[Guest happ]

Evacuations ordered below Oroville Dam after a hole is found in its emergency spillway

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-update-20170212-story.html

[Thunder98]

Dam! (Pun intended) Its going to rain at least 7 days in a row!