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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Warning shots no more!
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#1
Goducks09

Posted 31 December 2016 - 10:47 PM

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New year, no more warning shots.


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#2
Heavy Snow

Posted 31 December 2016 - 11:37 PM

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Happy New Year! Snow God Ullr, please give me lots of snow next week!

 

ullr4.jpg

giphy.gif


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#3
G-Sax

Posted 31 December 2016 - 11:58 PM

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Wait I thought Timmy_Supercell started a Jan 2017 thread earlier?


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#4
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:02 AM

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Snow at midnight!



#5
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:06 AM

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It has snowed ALL YEAR here.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#6
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:08 AM

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Happy New Year everyone! Here's to a great 2017!

#7
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:09 AM

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There is a band of moisture rounding the bend that might side swipe the swamp in an hour.  I might stay up for this one!



#8
G-Sax

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:10 AM

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Looks like Seattle is about to get in on some action.



#9
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:10 AM

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The 00z GFS ensemble members are all over the place at hour 84 and 96. 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_15.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_17.png


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#10
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:12 AM

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My problem is that it is still too warm for sticking snow.  39



#11
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:14 AM

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My problem is that it is still too warm for sticking snow.  39

Arctic front has not reached you?

#12
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:16 AM

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Very fine snow falling here and blowing sideways. Getting a little breezy.

#13
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:19 AM

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Arctic front has not reached you?

 

Come on man.  It hasn't reached Bellingham yet.  You pulling my leg?


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#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:21 AM

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Actually... this picture is from January.  

 

15731924_1194814557253417_91409349217820


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#15
kokaneekidz

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:26 AM

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May 2017 prove that Seattle can still get snow that lasts for more than 20 minutes.... 



#16
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:26 AM

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I just looked at the initial 00z EURO ensemble members and they don't look good as as the majority of them send the midweek system into Northern California. If you live in Medford/Klamath Falls/Roseburg/Eugene/Bend you have better chances to score. Still a long ways out and will hope for the usual northward trend.


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#17
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:27 AM

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Come on man.  It hasn't reached Bellingham yet.  You pulling my leg?

You know it

#18
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:31 AM

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Who's staying up for the 6z???

#19
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:32 AM

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Good news, 06z NAM trending northward and a little stronger with the midweek system than the 00z NAM.


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#20
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:36 AM

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lol I started this topic earlier and it got no replies. 


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 2 (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#21
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:37 AM

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I just looked at the initial 00z EURO ensemble members and they don't look good as as the majority of them send the midweek system into Northern California. If you live in Medford/Klamath Falls/Roseburg/Eugene/Bend you have better chances to score. Still a long ways out and will hope for the usual northward trend.

 

So you are saying the EURO ensembles are colder than the absolute s**t of the NAM/GFS/GEM


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#22
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:38 AM

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Good news, 06z NAM trending northward and a little stronger with the midweek system than the 00z NAM.

 

Why is that good news?! Just means we warm up sooner. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#23
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:39 AM

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Why is that good news?! Just means we warm up sooner.


Looks the same to me.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#24
Skagit Weather

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:40 AM

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The radar is quickly fizzling out up here. My new years cheer is dying. Who's ready for 2018?


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"

2016-17: 8.0" (12/9: 1", 12/18: 0.5", 12/23: 0.75", 12/31-1/1: 1", 2/3: 0.25", 2/6: 3.0", 2/8: 1.5")


#25
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:40 AM

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Looks the same to me.

 

Good. Yev, wants to wish cast a snow storm out of the southern stream going north into Vancouver Island lol. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#26
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:42 AM

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So you are saying the EURO ensembles are colder than the absolute s**t of the NAM/GFS/GEM

Why is that good news?! Just means we warm up sooner. 

 

Yes, ensemble average send system into California so we remain colder but drier. 

 

sfcmslp.conus.png

850t.conus.png

850t.conus.png850t.conus.png


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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#27
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:44 AM

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Yes, ensemble average send system into California so we remain colder but drier. 

 

sfcmslp.conus.png

850t.conus.png

850t.conus.png850t.conus.png

 

I am a cold anomaly freak you know. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#28
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:47 AM

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Good. Yev, wants to wish cast a snow storm out of the southern stream going north into Vancouver Island lol. 

 

Seriously Andrew, I told you before, I don't post or talk about weather on any other forum. Your obsessed that I'm somebody else. I only talk about weather here. If your basing my post that I'm some guy named Yev on another forum than you're wrong.


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#29
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:48 AM

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Looks the same to me.

 

It's a bit north.

 

Lousy setup for a snowstorm for anyone though, with the mid level energy so cut off from the block and thus nothing to protect us from rapid WAA.



#30
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:49 AM

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I am a cold anomaly freak you know. 

 

I'm factoring in what jaya said. The EURO has a chance to warm us up before any precip arrives.


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#31
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:52 AM

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Going to predict that tonight will be snowier for the Portland/Vancouver area than anything we will see next week. Actually seems like a fairly easy call right now.



#32
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:53 AM

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I'm factoring in what jaya said. The EURO has a chance to warm us up before any precip arrives.

 

I will take my chances with the coolest solution...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#33
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:54 AM

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Going to predict that tonight will be snowier for the Portland/Vancouver area than anything we will see next week. Actually seems like a fairly easy call right now.

 

Yeah the moisture doesn't loo to end any time soon and the upper levels are going to really start cooling off here in the next 2-3 hours. I think Clark Co. and the East Side will be the biggest winners.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#34
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 12:59 AM

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I'm tired of staring up into the street lights for tonight. Hoping I awake to an inch of snow.

#35
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:01 AM

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Cold drizzle here... lol!

#36
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:02 AM

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I will take my chances with the coolest solution...

 

We will see what happens. 


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#37
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:03 AM

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Well of the first 60 mins of 2017, I had light snow falling for about 46 minutes.

Now if only we could keep up that ratio for the year.

#38
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:03 AM

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We will see what happens. 

 

 

All you can do I guess.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#39
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:04 AM

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I'm tired of staring up into the street lights for tonight. Hoping I awake to an inch of snow.

I feel ya!! We knew how this was going to play out here. Not sure why I keep wishing. ☹️

#40
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:04 AM

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Cold drizzle here... lol!


There is still hope for us. If an actual arctic front slides through the sound the atmosphere is juiced and it will wring out all the juice giving us an inch.

#41
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:05 AM

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When does the 6z GFS start? I'm never usually up this late!
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#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:06 AM

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It is weird how W. Oregon keeps being so much better than W. WA for snow...Odd times we live in. I feel bad for Jim. His silence leads me to believe he is getting screwed again. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#43
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:07 AM

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Going to predict that tonight will be snowier for the Portland/Vancouver area than anything we will see next week. Actually seems like a fairly easy call right now.

Haven't seen the latest runs, can we expect any real accumulation?



#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:09 AM

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When does the 6z GFS start? I'm never usually up this late!

 

1:30am


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#45
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:09 AM

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It is weird how W. Oregon keeps being so much better than W. WA for snow...Odd times we live in. I feel bad for Jim. His silence leads me to believe he is getting screwed again.

Perhaps...just perhaps next week us norhenders get a low that comes in right at the mouth of the Columbia....like the good old days leaving Oregon screwed.

#46
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:10 AM

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2-3" so far, radar filling in. Scappoose is a mess as well,
Mixed precip by side roads are frozen.

#47
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:14 AM

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2-3" so far, radar filling in. Scappoose is a mess as well,
Mixed precip by side roads are frozen.

 

That last shower that went through looked really good for you guys! I'm at about 1.5", looks like around 3-4 through about 7-8am will be the focus down here. Performing fairly well so far. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#48
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:18 AM

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Wow some interesting OBS in E. Oregon. Burns sitting at -12 this morning. Pendleton 37 with a 40mph W wind. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#49
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:22 AM

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Haven't seen the latest runs, can we expect any real accumulation?

 

Unlikely anything accumulates beyond a dusting below about 200', but areas above that should mostly see some ground covering at some point. Some folks, especially those further north or near the Cascade foothills, could see up to 3".



#50
G-Sax

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:22 AM

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Just added up all my snow events/totals this winter so far.

12-8/12-9: 3"

12-17: 0.25"

12-23: 2.5"

12-31/1-1: 0.75"(Possibly more)

 

I'll gladly take 6.5" even though there could've been more, much better than the last few winters here.


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