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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Warning shots no more!
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#10501
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:01 PM

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I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern. 

 

You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska.

 

It's a very unstable pattern that can lead to large snowfalls and epic busts, the latter more often than the former. But then the big PDX event in January came from a top heavy but lower amplitude block that collapsed onto a similar low shoving it through Oregon. This just hasn't been our year.



#10502
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:01 PM

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Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth.

 

 

The 00Z ECMWF shows what looks like a potential windstorm-type pattern to me later next week... if you squint.   :)

 

ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119


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#10503
Front Ranger

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:02 PM

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Bottom line: let's see what happens on Thursday.

 

Attached File  funny-groundhog-day-4.jpg   12.78KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#10504
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:03 PM

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It still doesn't end up looking too bad out at hour 168 (better than the GFS anyway), though this time frame seems kind of irrelevant now with how unstable things become. Go GEM!

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

Are you serious?   LMAO! cmon!



#10505
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:04 PM

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The NAVGEM continues to live in a parallel universe.

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_22.png



#10506
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:04 PM

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The NAVGEM continues to live in a parallel universe.

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_22.png

Yep.. that is why it is a useless!



#10507
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:05 PM

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Are you serious?   LMAO! cmon!

 

About the GEM or the irrelevance of the ECMWF out to hour 168?



#10508
Jesse

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:06 PM

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Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

#10509
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:07 PM

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The 00Z ECMWF shows what looks like a potential windstorm-type pattern to me later next week... if you squint.   :)

 

ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119

god I hope sooooo at least something to root for that might actually happen. 



#10510
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:08 PM

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Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

....and the puget sound still got screwed.  So, who knows, it could improve... whatever that means. 



#10511
Front Ranger

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:09 PM

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Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

 

Right. I mean it's easy to overlook the fact that the 0z Euro is pretty close to showing a big regional snowstorm Friday/Saturday, just because it's not near as good as the previous run. Wouldn't take a radical shift to at least bring more widespread lowland snow.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#10512
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:09 PM

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I am down to 27.6. :) Another exciting cold stat for the books. 



#10513
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:11 PM

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Right. I mean it's easy to overlook the fact that the 0z Euro is pretty close to showing a big regional snowstorm Friday/Saturday, just because it's not near as good as the previous run. Wouldn't take a radical shift to at least bring more widespread lowland snow.

 

 

True... 



#10514
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:12 PM

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About the GEM or the irrelevance of the ECMWF out to hour 168?

GEM



#10515
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:24 PM

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GEM

 

It's the only model left that doesn't split the vortex too far out into the GOA. It's also a terribly inconsistent model, if our hope rests on the GEM we're screwed.



#10516
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:13 AM

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Well the 06z is a step back in the right direction...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#10517
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:24 AM

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So the final numbers are in on January and in W. Oregon it was the coldest January since:

 

Eugene: 1993

Salem  :  1985

PDX    : 1979


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#10518
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Well the 06z is a step back in the right direction...

Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.

#10519
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:41 AM

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The east wind is pretty impressive for Tigard this morning. Going to be a very windy day. 



#10520
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:45 AM

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Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.

Nothing epic. But improved for sure.

#10521
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:47 AM

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Sarcasm or...? I don't have time to check.


Takes just as long to took briefly at the model as it does to type a new post.

6z GFS pushes the cold furthe south. Doubt it's a trend though, I've seen the 6z do this too many times after a 00z flip

#10522
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:52 AM

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My monthly average ended up at 36.1 putting it in a 3 way tie for coldest January of the century with 2007 and 2013. Weird. December also averaged 36.1. A pretty cold two month average.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#10523
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:53 AM

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Takes just as long to took briefly at the model as it does to type a new post.

6z GFS pushes the cold furthe south. Doubt it's a trend though, I've seen the 6z do this too many times after a 00z flip


I think we'll pretty much know on the 12z. Certainly by tonight.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#10524
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:58 AM

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I think we'll pretty much know on the 12z. Certainly by tonight.

I'll bet things come in further south than the 0z last night showed. Just a hunch.

#10525
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:01 AM

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I'll bet things come in further south than the 0z last night showed. Just a hunch.


One can hope at least

#10526
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:02 AM

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Wasn't Phil bragging about how he called this yesterday? "This" meaning the cold and snow next week?

#10527
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:07 AM

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My monthly average ended up at 36.1 putting it in a 3 way tie for coldest January of the century with 2007 and 2013. Weird. December also averaged 36.1. A pretty cold two month average.

 

January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This d**n month needs to get its act together... 



#10528
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:12 AM

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Wasn't Phil bragging about how he called this yesterday? "This" meaning the cold and snow next week?


He was referring to the -EPO, which will verify. Why do you care? Screw snow

#10529
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:13 AM

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January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This D**n month needs to get its act together...


Been a lot colder up this way, just hasn't helped much in the snow department unfortunately

#10530
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:22 AM

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Been a lot colder up this way, just hasn't helped much in the snow department unfortunately

 

Still waiting for your avatar to be an accurate depiction of an upcoming pattern...



#10531
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:27 AM

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Its February.  



#10532
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:33 AM

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Its February.


If your dafodyls haven't bloomed yet, it's been a good winter ?

#10533
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:42 AM

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January 2013? I don't recall that month being cold AT ALL... I mean, we skated on Lake Whatcom this month, and it was only the coldest Jan since 2013? This D**n month needs to get its act together...


Is Lake Whatcom in Covington?
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#10534
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Is Lake Whatcom in Covington?

I'm not sure, I know Bellingham is in Minnesota AND Massachusetts though, so it's possible. Not finding any Lake Whatcoms on the Thurston or Pierce County maps though. Weird.  


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#10535
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:12 AM

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Hard to believe it's already January 32nd. Time flies.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10536
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:21 AM

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I'm not sure, I know Bellingham is in Minnesota AND Massachusetts though, so it's possible. Not finding any Lake Whatcoms on the Thurston or Pierce County maps though. Weird.  

 

I guess there's only one in Whatcom county. Which means its pretty far from Jim's place and probably had a colder monthly average. ;)



#10537
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:24 AM

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Last ✊🏻
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#10538
nwsnow

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:50 PM

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Note that sleet is included in this.

 

namconus_asnow_nwus_21.png



#10539
DareDuck

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:57 PM

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I think it's been 24 years since Bend had a January with 31 days of snowcover greater than 6"
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Bend, OR Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow history:

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

 

Average: ~25"


#10540
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:23 PM

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Final January Stats....

 

17091237_614324178624_8137851_o.jpg?oh=3


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"