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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Warning shots no more!
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#101
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2017 - 05:05 AM

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Holy crap, just let the dog out, looks like close to 6" of snow! I was thinking 4" tops!

#102
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 05:38 AM

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Radar shows nothing but I do have light snow currently.

#103
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:20 AM

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It is snowing like  moFo here in the swamp highlands. Have about an inch.  :wub:  :)



#104
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:27 AM

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The 06z ensembles appear to have treneded a bit toward the EURO


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#105
FroYoBro

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:31 AM

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There has been quite a bit of moisture the past 8 hours. It has led to a lot of cold rain here.

#106
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:40 AM

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WOW I thought by now most of the precip would have moved through, a ton of moisture still upstream. 

 

Just measured a solid 4". 

 

Would be cool if the EURO was somehow right and we actually were heading into a legit arctic outbreak.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#107
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:42 AM

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Sea Tac is reporting a snow depth of 2"! 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#108
crf450ish

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:49 AM

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Where's Jim?

#109
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:55 AM

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Where's Jim?

 

Sleeping?


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#110
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 06:57 AM

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Getting heavy snow here currently and have about 4-5" of accumulations so far! System has had way more moisture than modeled.

 

Feel for those that have only seen mainly rain through all this moisture we have gotten already.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 10.0"
Largest snowfall: 2.5"
Coldest high: 38ºF
Coldest low: 18ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#111
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:03 AM

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Getting heavy snow here currently and have about 4-5" of accumulations so far! System has had way more moisture than modeled.

 

Feel for those that have only seen mainly rain through all this moisture we have gotten already.

 

No Langley radar, so can't know for sure, but it looks like that is the final big push for areas in the metro area. Looks juicy so I bet you could pick up another 1-2" easily with it. Down to 37 at AST so cooler air has filtered in, maybe this drops snow levels to the valley floor as it rolls through. Down here in the Central Valley looks like that band and then one more behind it before things shift south. I would say definitely more precip than modeled for places on the West side and the N. Coast range. For my area the Euro did well with this. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#112
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:09 AM

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Where's Jim?


Might not be on today... he got no snow at all. Snowed in every direction around him though. Even in the swamp.

#113
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:09 AM

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2016 was the 2nd warmest year on record at PDX. 

 

December was the 7th coldest on record at PDX.

 

2016 was the 4th warmest year at SLE.

 

December was the 10th coldest on record at SLE. 

 

2016 was the 8th warmest on record at EUG.

 

December was the 13th coldest on record at EUG. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:10 AM

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Might not be on today... he got no snow at all. Snowed in every direction around him though. Even in the swamp.

 

Serious? I thought he was due east of Sea Tac and they got 2".


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#115
Skagit Weather

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:11 AM

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Ended up with just under 1" here. Pretty happy that I got enough for everything to turn white and this should be enough to last through the cold spell. Hanging around at 32F with partly cloudy skies.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"

2016-17: 8.0" (12/9: 1", 12/18: 0.5", 12/23: 0.75", 12/31-1/1: 1", 2/3: 0.25", 2/6: 3.0", 2/8: 1.5")


#116
crf450ish

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:14 AM

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Might not be on today... he got no snow at all. Snowed in every direction around him though. Even in the swamp.


Man that poor guy 😑 For real. He cannot catch a break.

#117
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:16 AM

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Serious? I thought he was due east of Sea Tac and they got 2".

 

 

He is very close to this traffic cam... that area was missed by the c-zone over SEA and the other one to the south in Pierce County.      Bad luck   I did not think SEA would have that much snow.

 

516vc01152.jpg



#118
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:16 AM

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Coldest December on record at Baker City, OR

 

Monthly mean

 

2016: 14.7

1978: 14.9

1948: 16.0


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#119
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:17 AM

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He is very close to this traffic cam... that area was missed by the c-zone over SEA and the other one to the south in Pierce County.      Bad luck   I did not think SEA would have that much snow.

 

516vc01152.jpg

 

Seattle down to 31 with snow on the hour. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#120
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:20 AM

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He is very close to this traffic cam... that area was missed by the c-zone over SEA and the other one to the south in Pierce County.      Bad luck   I did not think SEA would have that much snow.

 

516vc01152.jpg

 

He was supremely confident.


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#121
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:21 AM

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Wouldn't be surprised to see some mid-range improvements in one of the GFS runs today...

 

Morning wishcast.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#122
Skagit Weather

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:23 AM

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Not too often you see Seatac colder than Bellingham in this setup (or ever). SEA is at 31F while BLI is 33F.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"

2016-17: 8.0" (12/9: 1", 12/18: 0.5", 12/23: 0.75", 12/31-1/1: 1", 2/3: 0.25", 2/6: 3.0", 2/8: 1.5")


#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:25 AM

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Not too often you see Seatac colder than Bellingham in this setup (or ever). SEA is at 31F while BLI is 33F.

 

Seems the colder air is filtering in from the NW right now. Astoria has dropped quite a bit the past few hours. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#124
snow maniac

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:35 AM

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Barely a dusting of snow this morning, well that was fun.

#125
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:42 AM

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Komo 4 reported half a foot of snow in south seattle. Just a dusting here north of seattle.

Attached Files


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#126
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:42 AM

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Precip is winding down just in time here. Back to 32.7 with light snow but looks like that's about as far as I'll go.



#127
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:42 AM

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I doubt there will be an arctic intrusion. Just a cold low that swung through.

I got a Trace over-night and my prediction was correct. Not enough to build a snow person.

#128
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:44 AM

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GFS pretty much the same through hour 48. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#129
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:52 AM

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Komo 4 reported half a foot of snow in south seattle. Just a dusting here north of seattle.

 

That is really impressive.

 

I honestly was not expecting that much for Seattle. I think there is some crow to be eaten in here.



#130
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Still a few flakes coming down here, ended with 1" so everything is covered, even the roads. Also no more dripping at 31 degrees.

#131
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:56 AM

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Got about a half inch here in the swamp highlands. About what I predicted. Feel bad for Jim. :(

#132
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 January 2017 - 07:58 AM

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My heart goes out to anyone going into this arctic outbreak without any snow cover. Been there... it stings. A lot.



#133
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:04 AM

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3/4" here overnight. North wind just picked up and it's pretty gusty. Temp has warmed to 32F though.

#134
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:07 AM

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Arctic front should come blasting through Vancouver in a few hours.

 

Pretty impressive dew points being modelled for the next couple of days... Vancouver could be seeing dew points as low as -5 F



#135
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:07 AM

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

#136
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Close to 7 inches here last night... and the roads are plowed out already.

 

15774854_1195104213891118_77779996379578



#137
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

 

I'd put my money on the Euro at this point. The Euro has done quite well this month and in situations where the Euro sticks to its guns in the medium range, always bet on the Euro.



#138
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:10 AM

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Snow potential looks phenomenal for most of Oregon out to hr 108... not so good for the puget sound

#139
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Out to hour 102 on the 12z GFS and looks nothing like the euro. Southern stream still wins and it warms up late in the week. Amazing how two models can be so far apart. I wonder if they will converge in the middle and give us what we all want. Enough long lasting cold with snow.

102 hours out is just too much for the models to handle right now. I do think someone will get clobbered when the time comes...just a matter of who...stay tuned! Will be interesting to see what the Canada and Europe spit out.
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#140
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:14 AM

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I'd put my money on the Euro at this point. The Euro has done quite well this month and in situations where the Euro sticks to its guns in the medium range, always bet on the Euro.


Yes, I also bet on the euro but it literally just flipped last night back to a cold solution after many runs showing the same thing the GFS is. I hope for a middle of the road outcome but honestly anything is possible as consistent runs are not enough to believe anything other than the averages. Climo usually wins, but we shall see.

#141
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Snow potential looks phenomenal for most of Oregon out to hr 108... not so good for the puget sound


Looks a little warm to me, maybe zr

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#142
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Komo 4 reported half a foot of snow in south seattle. Just a dusting here north of seattle.

Just ran the 8 hour radar loop before seeing this and was thinking a small area of South Seattle must have been clobbered. CZ sat over them for hours.

 

Impressive.


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#143
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:18 AM

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Arctic front should come blasting through Vancouver in a few hours.

Pretty impressive dew points being modelled for the next couple of days... Vancouver could be seeing dew points as low as -5 F

Dew points are dropping fast in the eastern valley as the outflow kicks in. No sign of a temp drop though, and not really any cold air in the canyon at this point.

#144
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:26 AM

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8" here and still snowing lightly #overachiver
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#145
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:26 AM

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Canadian is still on team northern stream.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#146
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:27 AM

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If we transition out of this as poorly as the GFS suggests is possible. This will be a far bigger let down than 2005 or 2011 for MBY.

#147
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:27 AM

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Flying blind now as I only get one bar of service at home, and the internet is down.

#148
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:28 AM

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8" here and still snowing lightly #overachiver


Yeah, but it's trending east.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#149
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Nice to see Sea-Tac score since that's the official station for Seattle.

 

Attached File  518vc00252.jpg   55.75KB   0 downloads


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#150
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 08:31 AM

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Well, it's no 7 inches but I got just enough to coat everything in white and with the fog it certainly has a 'cold winter's morning' feel.

Attached Files


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