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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

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#701
Andie

Posted 24 August 2017 - 06:25 PM

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There was one run that showed 30 inches of rain over the span of a few days. This is going to be one hell of a storm and depending on where it tracks, something that could even impact Phil and I.

Yes?

What did the model look like ?

Found this.

Attached File  IMG_2682.JPG   176.06KB   0 downloads

According to the Weather Prediction Center, more than 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain from Corpus Christi to Houston is expected over the next week while some models forecast as much as 40 inches (1 meter) of rain through next Tuesday in southeast past of Texas.

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#702
Andie

Posted 24 August 2017 - 07:11 PM

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From Bloomberg, this is a report of rigs, refineries, terminals, and platforms fitting down.
Fuel may be impacted on the short term.

Refineries:

Flint Hills Corpus Christi East, West Plants, capacity 293k b/d
Magellan Corpus Christi, Texas, splitter, capacity 50k b/d
Citgo Corpus has begun shutting operations ahead of Hurricane Harvey, capacity 163k b/d
Ports, Terminals, Pipelines:

Mansfield sees Corpus Christi fuel terminals closing Friday
Corpus Christi ship pilots suspend incoming boardings
NuStar prepares to shut Corpus Christi, Texas, oil terminal
Tennessee Gas: Force Majeure at S. Texas Stations 1, 9 Aug. 25
Mexico’s Cayo Arcas, Dos Bocas ports reopen after bad weather
Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Tennessee gas pipeline declared force majeure for stations in south Texas
All major Ports have already been shut to large vessels Wednesday because of Harvey
Platforms:

Anadarko shuts four Gulf platforms before Harvey, evacuates staff
Noble Corp. evacuates Paul Romano rig in Gulf ahead of Harvey, and moved staff to shore
Shell shuts, evacuates Perdido platform ahead of Harvey
Exxon shut Galveston 209 and Hadrian South crude and nat gas platforms; Cutting Gulf Hoover Platform Rates Ahead of Harvey,

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#703
Andie

Posted 25 August 2017 - 05:00 AM

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Just wanted to say that it always amazes me when these big storms are on the coast.

Even this far north, this early in the process we can see and feel the change. Outer clouds are pushed as far north as DFW. I woke up to them this morning.

The sky gets peculiar and you can feel the air change. It affects you. Very emotional.

I find it a bit creepy. But cool.


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#704
Phil

Posted 25 August 2017 - 06:58 AM

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Harvey is about to strengthen into a major. Eye clearing out and ERC looks to complete within 2hrs.

Currently a humid 87/77 on the GA coast with a nice long period E/SE swell. Looking forward to getting knocked around by 10ft seas this weekend before heading home late on 8/27.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#705
Andie

Posted 25 August 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Today's Noon MDT run of the HWRF forecast model has sustained winds in Harvey of 151 knots or 174 mph and a central pressure of 938 millibars or 27.70 inches of mercury.

 

It'll be interesting to see just how low the pressure goes with Harvey as he wabbles about.

 

I'm also concerned about flooding in Hill Country west of San Antonio.  Creeks and rivers, such as the Guadalupe and Sabine are not deep rivers so the flooding will quickly come out into populated areas.   This could be a secondary, but very serious, issue in Texas.

 

Currently overcast here. We'll be in the low 80's for a week, then low 90's. But humid.  30% chance of rain this weekend from Harvey

ots_dark_wx_67.png
78°
Overcast
Feels Like 83 °
Weather Forecast Updated 11:00 AM CDT
current.jpg?t=1503676620
Humidity: 74%
Wind: East 3mph

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#706
Andie

Posted 25 August 2017 - 02:07 PM

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Well, the call finally came in this. Morning.

My husband is a Regional Commander for FEMA and the Fleet Manager for the City of Ft. Worth. He'll be organizing the equipment and men and materials to be ready to go down to the coast to aid in cleanup so people can get back to their homes.

The flooding won't subside quickly as flooding may go in nearly 100 miles. Incredible. The weather gurus may have underestimated this hurri. The area it's going into is very low deep into the state the looping goes over that low area. Port LaVaca could see 53". And inland from there too by 50 miles with 53".

Hard to say when these teams can get into the area. All they can do is organize, get supplied, and be ready for the caravan to roll.
Randy cut his teeth on Katrina, then Ike, and Rita, so they're well experienced as are other cities. Texas has an exceptional group of recovery teams. I recall him telling me they had to take earthmovers off the flatbeds and push yatchs and houses off of I35 to get into Houston.
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#707
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 August 2017 - 03:12 PM

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Well, the call finally came in this. Morning.

My husband is a Regional Commander for FEMA and the Fleet Manager for the City of Ft. Worth. He'll be organizing the equipment and men and materials to be ready to go down to the coast to aid in cleanup so people can get back to their homes.

The flooding won't subside quickly as flooding may go in nearly 100 miles. Incredible. The weather gurus may have underestimated this hurri. The area it's going into is very low deep into the state the looping goes over that low area. Port LaVaca could see 53". And inland from there too by 50 miles with 53".

Hard to say when these teams can get into the area. All they can do is organize, get supplied, and be ready for the caravan to roll.
Randy cut his teeth on Katrina, then Ike, and Rita, so they're well experienced as are other cities. Texas has an exceptional group of recovery teams. I recall him telling me they had to take earthmovers off the flatbeds and push yatchs and houses off of I35 to get into Houston.


Thoughts and prayers with Texas this weekend. Going to be a rough one. :(

#708
Phil

Posted 25 August 2017 - 03:18 PM

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Thoughts and prayers with Texas this weekend. Going to be a rough one. :(


Likewise. Hoping/praying for the best.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#709
Chris

Posted 25 August 2017 - 03:49 PM

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https://livestormchasing.com/map

 

For people who want live video of Harvey or other severe weather.



#710
Andie

Posted 27 August 2017 - 11:05 AM

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Thanks for that link Chris.

I've been checking in and trying to see what's happening to pass on to my husband.
He'll be down there with heading up a federal cleanup crew this week.
Something tells me they'll send him to Houston to get the economy back.
But Rockport is the real heartbreak. Houses in splinters in areas.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#711
Andie

Posted 27 August 2017 - 12:48 PM

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Storm summary to date.

http://www.wpc.ncep....ns/nfdscc1.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#712
Phil

Posted 27 August 2017 - 07:21 PM

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Back home in Bethesda. Temperature is 60 degrees, humidity is low, and crickets are chirping. Love it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#713
Andie

Posted 28 August 2017 - 05:57 AM

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Last night we were out working on moving my husband from one office to another and quit work around 1 am.
When we exited the building we couldn't believe the air. It was like walking and breathing underwater.

I've never felt Air this heavy and not be raining. It just keeps coming in and piling up in the atmosphere.

This far north after the wet summer, there's mold actually growing in places.
I hope we don't see another hurricane this year but it's still only August.

Rainfall totals in Houston updated.

http://www.wpc.ncep....ns/nfdscc1.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#714
Andie

Posted 28 August 2017 - 08:29 AM

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54 of 254 counties in Texas are declared disasters.
They're releasing water into city streams which further flood neighborhoods to avoid dam breeches.
Also, refineries, platforms, and some pipelines still down still down.

This is not what Texas is supposed to look like in August.
Mold. Get the bleach!

Attached File  IMG_2688.JPG   221.39KB   0 downloads
Taken today.


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#715
Phil

Posted 28 August 2017 - 09:42 AM

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Beautiful here today. Upper 70s, low humidity, and scattered clouds under easterly/onshore flow.

Still sounds like summer, though. Lots of cicadas.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#716
weatherfan2012

Posted 28 August 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Beautiful here today. Upper 70s, low humidity, and scattered clouds under easterly/onshore flow.
Still sounds like summer, though. Lots of cicadas.

yeah this beautiful weather has been with us this whole weekend can't ask for better temperature in late Augest then 70s for highs.welcome back home by the way
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#717
Andie

Posted 28 August 2017 - 11:28 AM

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Trade Ya !

 

It may get worse.  We have roughly 20% of Texas experiencing flooding right now.

I don't even want to think about LA.

 

Dr. Edmund Russo, with the Corps of Engineers, said 25 inches of rain had already been added to the reservoir. The National Weather Service warned another 25 inches could be coming over the next several days.

Even with the controlled release, the reservoirs are rising at a rate of four inches per hour, Russo said.

"This event has the potential to exceed a 1,000 year flood plain threshold," Russo said, in a press conference on Monday morning.


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#718
Phil

Posted 28 August 2017 - 07:17 PM

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Over 40" of rain has fallen on SE Texas, and another 20-30" falls on the 00z NAM. Ugh.

Then we have (future) hurricane Juan that could strike the east coast or recurve..either scenario is plausible at this point.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#719
Andie

Posted 29 August 2017 - 06:32 AM

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I heard from a met on Fox this morning that they're officially at a high mark of 48", record for Houston. . If they achieve 49" they'll tie the record for the State. With the dam overflowing as I write, that will be no problem as it is expected to make levels rise 5+".

Update: As of 10 am CST Houston had reached 49.32". This is a record high. Exceeds Hurricane Amelia at 48"
East of Houston at League City they've reached 53" of rain

They're now calling the flooded area Lake Houston. Flood is as large as Lake Michigan. 6-8+" of rainfall forecast. Oil pipeline pumps are close to being compromised which will affect the main fuel lijne from the coast to the Atlantic seaboard. Prices for gas will spike late this fall.

If anyone is feeling generous, please donate to the American Red Cross. 1-800-Red-Cross.

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#720
epiceast

Posted 29 August 2017 - 09:47 AM

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From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts :(

 

https://www.american...comment=4598914



#721
Phil

Posted 29 August 2017 - 10:25 AM

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From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts :(

https://www.american...comment=4598914


Goodness. Hopefully that doesn't verify.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#722
Andie

Posted 29 August 2017 - 01:44 PM

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From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts :(
 
https://www.american...comment=4598914


Holy Smoke.
Is that Harvey reorganizing? Or a different event ?

Texas has a $10 Billion "Rainy Day" fund for emergencies, but the projections. On this is in the $100 Billion family.
I still haven't heard how the oil platforms are or whether the pipeline pumps are still working.
Refineries take days to fire and heat up to operations. That's if they're ok.

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#723
Andie

Posted 29 August 2017 - 01:46 PM

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PS. the recovery team hasn't been activated. Can't get in.
Idk when they'll go.

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#724
Phil

Posted 29 August 2017 - 03:30 PM

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While I'm still leaning towards a milder than average winter, this certainly doesn't feel like the type of late summer/early fall pattern that would precede a warm winter.

If September/October average cool/wet overall, watch out.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#725
Phil

Posted 29 August 2017 - 05:56 PM

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Today's high was 66.7*F. That's the coolest I can remember for the month of August.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#726
Andie

Posted 31 August 2017 - 03:43 PM

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Some of the models show Irma could not only come into the Gulf, but come to the Texas coast.

Say it ain't so.

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#727
Phil

Posted 04 September 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Some of the models show Irma could not only come into the Gulf, but come to the Texas coast.

Say it ain't so.


Irma is very unlikely to enter the Gulf. Good to keep an eye on it however I don't think with the SE US ULL and NE trough that the storm could make it that far west.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#728
weatherfan2012

Posted 04 September 2017 - 11:36 AM

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While I'm still leaning towards a milder than average winter, this certainly doesn't feel like the type of late summer/early fall pattern that would precede a warm winter.
If September/October average cool/wet overall, watch out.

and also interesting is that some of the model outputs on irma is alot like a Hurricane Donna from 1960 track and 1960 was quite a pattern fall/winter something to certainly bare watching over the next few months.

#729
Andie

Posted 04 September 2017 - 03:54 PM

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Hope you are right Phil. The mets on tv were showing a model that today took it literally the length of Fla. south to north. That would be a great deal of damage. I know you guys don't like fish storms, but we could do worse.

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#730
Thunder98

Posted 08 September 2017 - 11:21 AM

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Scary weather forecast for Miami.

 

 

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#731
weatherfan2012

Posted 09 September 2017 - 05:14 AM

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Localy the weather has been very nice especially for early September with highs in the 70s lows in the 50s those I feel bad about our nice weather giving the major weather events with Harvey Texas and now Irma and Josh in the islands and Irma in florda sure been a rough two week periold for the south states.unfortunately this was the price to pay when we have had such warm waters that began with the super niño in 2015-2016 something had to give sooner or later to balance this out and in turn the active tropics big powerful hurricanes plus as phil has been saying perhaps the beginning of the tide of a incoming new regem that will be setting up the next few years.it going to be very interesting to see how this plays out especially with solar cycles 25 and 26 in our modern age of record keeping.P.S I also don't think Irma is the last system we may have to contend with I still have concerns of a east coast threat between now and October giving the pattern in fact some models are hinting Josh or another system behind him could be something to keep an eye on with in 10 days..



#732
Andie

Posted 10 September 2017 - 06:44 AM

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While Irma has just begun her slow stroll up the peninsula of Florida, coastal areas of the coastline near Key Largo are void of water that has been sucked out to sea. It will return in time as a very high tide.

Also, Atlanta, Ga. has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is the first time in recorded history.

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#733
weatherfan2012

Posted 10 September 2017 - 09:52 AM

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While Irma has just begun her slow stroll up the peninsula of Florida, coastal areas of the coastline near Key Largo are void of water that has been sucked out to sea. It will return in time as a very high tide.
Also, Atlanta, Ga. has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is the first time in recorded history.

tropical storm warning at the weather channel head qouters now there's something you don't here very often.

#734
Phil

Posted 16 September 2017 - 08:22 PM

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Stagnant as f**k out there. Dewpoints can still suck at this time of year..was 84/73 this afternoon.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#735
weatherfan2012

Posted 16 September 2017 - 10:11 PM

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Stagnant as f**k out there. Dewpoints can still suck at this time of year..was 84/73 this afternoon.

we also need to watch the tropics now through mid October if there was any year where we get a a tropical system to impact the entire eastern seaboard this may just be the year for it to happen.

#736
Andie

Posted 17 September 2017 - 10:52 AM

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Maria will hit the Leeward Islands by Monday night as a Cat 1 building to a Cat 3.
The same islands that were scraped bare from Irma will see 4-8" of rain.
It's already in the Stone Age, what more can these islands take?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.