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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017


Phil

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Florida storms are so different than DC storms. They're much more visually appealing, but move at a snails pace and dump a crapload of rain. The storms back home are much less generous in terms of rainfall, but are much windier.

you can see them in florda for mails and mails I seen some great lighting displays from storms in the western gulf of Mexico when we stayed in Daytona a few times.
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Pressure  29.75 in

Visibility 10.0 miles Clouds Few 3300 ft
Scattered Clouds 8000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 20000 ft

Heat Index 100 °F

Dew Point 75.3 °F

Humidity 64%

Rainfall 2.00

 

 

Well, this summer continues to go into the history books. 

We woke to thunder crashing and 2" of rain pouring down. 

 

The big monsoonal rain we got last week gave a friend west of me 2.5" rain in like 90 minutes. 

His small weather station recorded 72 mph winds, and circulation overhead. 

I received 1.5" in 90 mins. 

We've had such deluges this summer.  Clouds open and just dump rain. 

No ceremony, just...here ya are!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Okay, the tally is in. and while I got a measly 2" or so, NE of me areas from Sherman to east of Dallas received up to 10" of rain in like 2 hrs. 

Okay,... Monsoons anyone?

 

A bit more out west, not much, then 97* tomorrow with a heat index of 105-107*.  Yeah, dog days.

We'll have good viewing for the solar eclipse though, next Monday.

 

Any one have any special plans??

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Summary for US by Farmers Almanac for all you farmer types.

 

PREDICTIONS FOR THE WINTER

The Farmer's Almanac that goes on sale this week predicts a snowy winter from Maryland to Maine with five coastal storms to bring winter misery to the region.

 

Its reclusive weather prognosticator, who works under a pseudonym, suggests:

Colder-than-normal temperatures for eastern and central regions.

Wetter-than-normal weather for southeastern states.

Drier-than-normal conditions for the nation's western third that was pummeled by snow last winter.

 

The article I read said the Okla/La/Tx area will see some heavy wet weather this winter, so I better get out the rain gear.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4786680/Almanac-Plenty-cold-snow-winter-Northeast.html#ixzz4ppaTBukg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm not sold on a cold US winter this year. I'm thinking a seasonal to warm winter for most of the US this year under a +EPO.

 

Wildcard being any real -NAO/SSW that can occur if the solar wind/geotag forcing is weak enough.

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I'm not sold on a cold US winter this year. I'm thinking a seasonal to warm winter for most of the US this year under a +EPO.

Wildcard being any real -NAO/SSW that can occur if the solar wind/geotag forcing is weak enough.

we will likey eather see a mid winter change or the grand final

Of this warm pattern streak.as you said phil a while back these warm streaks tends to come in a span of 2 or threes the good news is with the lowering solar over the next few winters cold USA winters will likey make a come back eather 2018-2019 or 2019-2020. The big question I think is how this over all solar minimum behaves over the next few cycles will determined if we are going to see a simple cooling type periold like we saw in the 60s or if this is a much more deeper cooling that we will be seeing.the next few years are going to be interesting to see how this may play out.

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Lot's of west to east movement.  Hot and humid.  It's the monsoons, but it's Texas.

Overcast.  Very odd for August my friends.

 

87*

 

Pressure 29.83 in V

Visibility 10.0 miles

Clouds Few 3500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 10000 ft
Overcast 15000 ft

Heat Index 100 °F

Dew Point 77.2 °F

Humidity 71%

 

50% chance of rain tomorrow afternoon

Rain in the forecast for late next week.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Getting a gut feeling that this will be another lame winter, even by PacNW standards.

Me too, but it'll probably be the final warm winter in this torch cycle (which began with the 2015/16 super niño). They usually come in sets of three.

 

It could also be a transitional winter, where we see a midwinter flip to -NAO/cold, much like 2012/13. That year opened the door for the 2yr stretch of brutal cold and frequent snow in 2013/14 and 2014/15. In those two winters alone, we had over fifty snow events and multiple Arctic blasts with subzero lows, hurricane force winds, and even a severe thunderstorm warning for a snow squall. ☃️

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http://media.nbcdfw.com/designimages/ots_dark_wx_66.png
98* High
Partly Cloudy
Feels Like 110°
Weather Forecast Updated 4:22 PM CDT
Humidity:58%
Wind:12 mph
ESE 17mph
Dewpoint:  79*..............This is the highest the met had ever seen for here
 
 
Currently 89*
 
Scattered Storms,Thunder, Lightning

Some areas reporting up to 4" unofficially

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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These dewpoints stink!

 

Ours haven't been this high in our record keeping.

80 is just painful to think about.

 

We still have some local downpours around us.

Texas August temps and all this rain makes for bad ju-ju !

 

I have an ear infection attributed to this concoction out there.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Holy hell ! On the east coast, you won't even have to build a fire for that clam bake.

 

You can have it !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like Fred finally got into some severe action today. That meso actually looked pretty decent to me. Probably at least gusts in the 45-55mph range for whoever got into the heart of the rear flank downdraft. Maybe higher within any burst swaths.

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Looks like Fred finally got into some severe action today. That meso actually looked pretty decent to me. Probably at least gusts in the 45-55mph range for whoever got into the heart of the rear flank downdraft. Maybe higher within any burst swaths.

I would be watching the tropics late month and September as well if we have 1 or 2 systems to come up doing the periold flooding would be a legit concern giving the heavey rain fall as of late.
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I would be watching the tropics late month and September as well if we have 1 or 2 systems to come up doing the periold flooding would be a legit concern giving the heavey rain fall as of late.

I'm more interested in the first three weeks of October, haha.

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That thunderstorm cluster put down between 700 to 800 cloud to ground lightning strikes per minute in central Maryland this afternoon. :o

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Very Impressive.

 

Hope your electronics are ok.

 

We're sitting at 102* at 4pm. Feels like 110*.

 

Pressure 29.91 in

Visibility 10.0 miles

Clouds Clear

Heat Index 110 °F

Dew Point 70 °F

Humidity 36

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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With only a 75% coverage on the eclipse, we still got a nice 4* drop and some eerie light. 

 

Beautiful thing though.  Posting a composite image of the ISS crossing the sun in partial eclipse.

 

Imagine the view they got

 

 

space station crossing sun.jpg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Crazy, beginning Thursday we will be seeing temperatures in the high 80's. 

A front comes through tomorrow with some rain, 40% chance, but it's the tropical storm that will change our rain chances, and lower those temps. 

It's certainly been a summer for the books.  If t his is the trend, I'm looking forward to a lovely long Fall !!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Models are still showing TS Harvey coming in to Texas but what it does once on land in terms of rain for North Texas is in the air. 

If we do get any precip. it will be late Sat. or Sunday.

 

Temps forecast in the 80's for 10 days.  Fall is early.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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There was one run that showed 30 inches of rain over the span of a few days. This is going to be one hell of a storm and depending on where it tracks, something that could even impact Phil and I.

There was one GFS run that dumped 50"+ of rain there. That would be ridiculous.

 

It's been awhile since we've had a tropical deluge. Sandy dumped a mediocre 5-8" across the Mid-Atlantic, while Lee dumped a respectable 8-16"+ around here the year before (9.8" in 12hrs IMBY). Irene also struck in 2011, but only dropped ~ 3" here despite producing 50-80mph wind gusts across the DC/MD/VA region. Irene was actually legit, probably stronger than Sandy in this area. It's rare that I'm able to record winds over 60mph through large trees.

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Saw one model that put 34" over Port LaVaca.

 

The high over New Mexico will just leave the hurri churning in a circle.

I've heard North Texas could only see 1-2". But that was early this morning.

 

Al Gore said our Hurricanes would pick up markedly 12 yrs ago.

I guess a broken clock is right twice a day.

Haven't seen that prognostication fulfilled yet.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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There was one run that showed 30 inches of rain over the span of a few days. This is going to be one hell of a storm and depending on where it tracks, something that could even impact Phil and I.

Yes?

 

What did the model look like ?

 

Found this.

 

IMG_2682.JPG

 

According to the Weather Prediction Center, more than 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain from Corpus Christi to Houston is expected over the next week while some models forecast as much as 40 inches (1 meter) of rain through next Tuesday in southeast past of Texas.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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From Bloomberg, this is a report of rigs, refineries, terminals, and platforms fitting down.

Fuel may be impacted on the short term.

 

Refineries:

 

Flint Hills Corpus Christi East, West Plants, capacity 293k b/d

Magellan Corpus Christi, Texas, splitter, capacity 50k b/d

Citgo Corpus has begun shutting operations ahead of Hurricane Harvey, capacity 163k b/d

Ports, Terminals, Pipelines:

 

Mansfield sees Corpus Christi fuel terminals closing Friday

Corpus Christi ship pilots suspend incoming boardings

NuStar prepares to shut Corpus Christi, Texas, oil terminal

Tennessee Gas: Force Majeure at S. Texas Stations 1, 9 Aug. 25

Mexico’s Cayo Arcas, Dos Bocas ports reopen after bad weather

Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Tennessee gas pipeline declared force majeure for stations in south Texas

All major Ports have already been shut to large vessels Wednesday because of Harvey

Platforms:

 

Anadarko shuts four Gulf platforms before Harvey, evacuates staff

Noble Corp. evacuates Paul Romano rig in Gulf ahead of Harvey, and moved staff to shore

Shell shuts, evacuates Perdido platform ahead of Harvey

Exxon shut Galveston 209 and Hadrian South crude and nat gas platforms; Cutting Gulf Hoover Platform Rates Ahead of Harvey,

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just wanted to say that it always amazes me when these big storms are on the coast.

Even this far north, this early in the process we can see and feel the change. Outer clouds are pushed as far north as DFW. I woke up to them this morning.

The sky gets peculiar and you can feel the air change. It affects you. Very emotional.

I find it a bit creepy. But cool.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Harvey is about to strengthen into a major. Eye clearing out and ERC looks to complete within 2hrs.

 

Currently a humid 87/77 on the GA coast with a nice long period E/SE swell. Looking forward to getting knocked around by 10ft seas this weekend before heading home late on 8/27.

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Today's Noon MDT run of the HWRF forecast model has sustained winds in Harvey of 151 knots or 174 mph and a central pressure of 938 millibars or 27.70 inches of mercury.

 

It'll be interesting to see just how low the pressure goes with Harvey as he wabbles about.

 

I'm also concerned about flooding in Hill Country west of San Antonio.  Creeks and rivers, such as the Guadalupe and Sabine are not deep rivers so the flooding will quickly come out into populated areas.   This could be a secondary, but very serious, issue in Texas.

 

Currently overcast here. We'll be in the low 80's for a week, then low 90's. But humid.  30% chance of rain this weekend from Harvey

http://media.nbcdfw.com/designimages/ots_dark_wx_67.png
78°
Overcast
Feels Like 83 °
Weather Forecast Updated 11:00 AM CDT
http://icons.wunderground.com/webcamramdisk/c/a/carrse/1/current.jpg?t=1503676620
Humidity: 74%
Wind: East 3mph

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, the call finally came in this. Morning.

 

My husband is a Regional Commander for FEMA and the Fleet Manager for the City of Ft. Worth. He'll be organizing the equipment and men and materials to be ready to go down to the coast to aid in cleanup so people can get back to their homes.

 

The flooding won't subside quickly as flooding may go in nearly 100 miles. Incredible. The weather gurus may have underestimated this hurri. The area it's going into is very low deep into the state the looping goes over that low area. Port LaVaca could see 53". And inland from there too by 50 miles with 53".

 

Hard to say when these teams can get into the area. All they can do is organize, get supplied, and be ready for the caravan to roll.

Randy cut his teeth on Katrina, then Ike, and Rita, so they're well experienced as are other cities. Texas has an exceptional group of recovery teams. I recall him telling me they had to take earthmovers off the flatbeds and push yatchs and houses off of I35 to get into Houston.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, the call finally came in this. Morning.

 

My husband is a Regional Commander for FEMA and the Fleet Manager for the City of Ft. Worth. He'll be organizing the equipment and men and materials to be ready to go down to the coast to aid in cleanup so people can get back to their homes.

 

The flooding won't subside quickly as flooding may go in nearly 100 miles. Incredible. The weather gurus may have underestimated this hurri. The area it's going into is very low deep into the state the looping goes over that low area. Port LaVaca could see 53". And inland from there too by 50 miles with 53".

 

Hard to say when these teams can get into the area. All they can do is organize, get supplied, and be ready for the caravan to roll.

Randy cut his teeth on Katrina, then Ike, and Rita, so they're well experienced as are other cities. Texas has an exceptional group of recovery teams. I recall him telling me they had to take earthmovers off the flatbeds and push yatchs and houses off of I35 to get into Houston.

Thoughts and prayers with Texas this weekend. Going to be a rough one. :(

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Thoughts and prayers with Texas this weekend. Going to be a rough one. :(

Likewise. Hoping/praying for the best.

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Thanks for that link Chris.

 

I've been checking in and trying to see what's happening to pass on to my husband.

He'll be down there with heading up a federal cleanup crew this week.

Something tells me they'll send him to Houston to get the economy back.

But Rockport is the real heartbreak. Houses in splinters in areas.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Back home in Bethesda. Temperature is 60 degrees, humidity is low, and crickets are chirping. Love it.

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Last night we were out working on moving my husband from one office to another and quit work around 1 am.

When we exited the building we couldn't believe the air. It was like walking and breathing underwater.

 

I've never felt Air this heavy and not be raining. It just keeps coming in and piling up in the atmosphere.

 

This far north after the wet summer, there's mold actually growing in places.

I hope we don't see another hurricane this year but it's still only August.

 

Rainfall totals in Houston updated.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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54 of 254 counties in Texas are declared disasters.
They're releasing water into city streams which further flood neighborhoods to avoid dam breeches.
Also, refineries, platforms, and some pipelines still down still down.

This is not what Texas is supposed to look like in August.
Mold. Get the bleach!

IMG_2688.JPG
Taken today.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Beautiful here today. Upper 70s, low humidity, and scattered clouds under easterly/onshore flow.

 

Still sounds like summer, though. Lots of cicadas.

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