East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[Andie]

Trade Ya !

 

It may get worse.  We have roughly 20% of Texas experiencing flooding right now.

I don't even want to think about LA.

 

Dr. Edmund Russo, with the Corps of Engineers, said 25 inches of rain had already been added to the reservoir. The National Weather Service warned another 25 inches could be coming over the next several days.

Even with the controlled release, the reservoirs are rising at a rate of four inches per hour, Russo said.

"This event has the potential to exceed a 1,000 year flood plain threshold," Russo said, in a press conference on Monday morning.

[Phil]

Over 40" of rain has fallen on SE Texas, and another 20-30" falls on the 00z NAM. Ugh.

 

Then we have (future) hurricane Juan that could strike the east coast or recurve..either scenario is plausible at this point.

[Andie]

I heard from a met on Fox this morning that they're officially at a high mark of 48", record for Houston. . If they achieve 49" they'll tie the record for the State. With the dam overflowing as I write, that will be no problem as it is expected to make levels rise 5+".

 

Update: As of 10 am CST Houston had reached 49.32". This is a record high. Exceeds Hurricane Amelia at 48"

East of Houston at League City they've reached 53" of rain

 

They're now calling the flooded area Lake Houston. Flood is as large as Lake Michigan. 6-8+" of rainfall forecast. Oil pipeline pumps are close to being compromised which will affect the main fuel lijne from the coast to the Atlantic seaboard. Prices for gas will spike late this fall.

 

If anyone is feeling generous, please donate to the American Red Cross. 1-800-Red-Cross.

[epiceast]

From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-tropical-storm-harvey/?do=findComment&comment=4598914

[Phil]

From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-tropical-storm-harvey/?do=findComment&comment=4598914

Goodness. Hopefully that doesn't verify.

[Andie]

From a different weather forum I started visiting a couple days ago to keep track of Harvey. Looks like some of the latest runs of Euro/GFS are showing another 10"+ event 5 days from now somewhere on the gulf. That will not help the recovery efforts

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-tropical-storm-harvey/?do=findComment&comment=4598914

Holy Smoke.

Is that Harvey reorganizing? Or a different event ?

 

Texas has a $10 Billion "Rainy Day" fund for emergencies, but the projections. On this is in the $100 Billion family.

I still haven't heard how the oil platforms are or whether the pipeline pumps are still working.

Refineries take days to fire and heat up to operations. That's if they're ok.

[Andie]

PS. the recovery team hasn't been activated. Can't get in.

Idk when they'll go.

[Phil]

While I'm still leaning towards a milder than average winter, this certainly doesn't feel like the type of late summer/early fall pattern that would precede a warm winter.

 

If September/October average cool/wet overall, watch out.

[Phil]

Today's high was 66.7*F. That's the coolest I can remember for the month of August.

[Andie]

Some of the models show Irma could not only come into the Gulf, but come to the Texas coast.

 

Say it ain't so.

[weatherfan2012]

While I'm still leaning towards a milder than average winter, this certainly doesn't feel like the type of late summer/early fall pattern that would precede a warm winter.

If September/October average cool/wet overall, watch out.

and also interesting is that some of the model outputs on irma is alot like a Hurricane Donna from 1960 track and 1960 was quite a pattern fall/winter something to certainly bare watching over the next few months.

[Andie]

Hope you are right Phil. The mets on tv were showing a model that today took it literally the length of Fla. south to north. That would be a great deal of damage. I know you guys don't like fish storms, but we could do worse.

[Thunder98]

Scary weather forecast for Miami.

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

Localy the weather has been very nice especially for early September with highs in the 70s lows in the 50s those I feel bad about our nice weather giving the major weather events with Harvey Texas and now Irma and Josh in the islands and Irma in florda sure been a rough two week periold for the south states.unfortunately this was the price to pay when we have had such warm waters that began with the super niño in 2015-2016 something had to give sooner or later to balance this out and in turn the active tropics big powerful hurricanes plus as phil has been saying perhaps the beginning of the tide of a incoming new regem that will be setting up the next few years.it going to be very interesting to see how this plays out especially with solar cycles 25 and 26 in our modern age of record keeping.P.S I also don't think Irma is the last system we may have to contend with I still have concerns of a east coast threat between now and October giving the pattern in fact some models are hinting Josh or another system behind him could be something to keep an eye on with in 10 days..

[Andie]

While Irma has just begun her slow stroll up the peninsula of Florida, coastal areas of the coastline near Key Largo are void of water that has been sucked out to sea. It will return in time as a very high tide.

 

Also, Atlanta, Ga. has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is the first time in recorded history.

[weatherfan2012]

While Irma has just begun her slow stroll up the peninsula of Florida, coastal areas of the coastline near Key Largo are void of water that has been sucked out to sea. It will return in time as a very high tide.

Also, Atlanta, Ga. has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is the first time in recorded history.

tropical storm warning at the weather channel head qouters now there's something you don't here very often.

[Phil]

Stagnant as f**k out there. Dewpoints can still suck at this time of year..was 84/73 this afternoon.

[weatherfan2012]

Stagnant as f**k out there. Dewpoints can still suck at this time of year..was 84/73 this afternoon.

we also need to watch the tropics now through mid October if there was any year where we get a a tropical system to impact the entire eastern seaboard this may just be the year for it to happen.

[Andie]

Maria will hit the Leeward Islands by Monday night as a Cat 1 building to a Cat 3.

The same islands that were scraped bare from Irma will see 4-8" of rain.

It's already in the Stone Age, what more can these islands take?

[Phil]

12 degree difference where I live and the PHL airport heat island.

 

The topography out here supports a sharp gradient in the heat island. The snow storm two years ago was interesting in that where I lived in Lansdale, we were at 26º and snow and ice on the ground, but driving south, by the time I was in Ft Washington, it was 35º and in Center City Philly, up to 39º.

Yeah, same thing here with the Fall Line running thru DC and the warm tidal Potomac on the southern end. The thermal gradient between DCA and IAD can be outrageous sometimes.

[Phil]

Check out the difference topography made in 2013/14. DCA only received ~ 35" of snow, while Damascus (800ft+ in elevation) received over 80", only 35 miles away.

 

[Phil]

[Andie]

Low of 50 and

High tomorrow of 72.

Humidity 49%

Dew point 56

Sparkling clear. Just gorgeous.

[weatherfan2012]

Some 30-40mph gusts last night with Nate's remnants. Leaves and twigs all over the place this morning.

Currently a swampy 78/75.

this is about as bad as October can get with these warm temperatures dewpoints bad enough we deel with it in the summer let alone lasting well into the fall.

[Andie]

I always find it interesting that when Texas and Oklahoma have great Springs and Summers with plenty of rain and tolerable temps., all hell breaks loose on both coasts. But let us be dying from drought, and heat everyone else is fine.

 

Seems this continent can't make everyone happy. We've had a beautiful Fall and plenty of rain this year. Crazy.

[Phil]

Beautiful stretch of weather. Lows in the upper 30s the last few mornings, highs around 70 degrees.

[Andie]

Same here Phil. 83-63. That's heaven here.

Humidity a bit high to his morning at 80% and dew point 53*.

 

But we'll take it. Nice weather for working outside which is being done here

Painting the house and cleaning out the garage. It's Fall !

[Phil]

That was a pretty sick cold front Monday night. Summer-like downpour blown sideways in 50mph southerly winds. Much cooler and drier the last few days.

 

There's a chance for a very strong cyclone Sunday night as tropical energy gets pulled into the phase job, however when/where that thing bombs out will determine whether we get blasted with 60mph winds and squally rains, or 30-40mph downsloping winds and sunny skies.

[Andie]

Low of 48 tonight, high tomorrow 53, then down to 36. Nippy.

Winds will range between 20 and 35.

 

It's about time. It's well and truly Fall Y'all.

[Andie]

Hit a low of 36 last night. True fall weather here, clear as a bell at times then cloud cover.

We'll see a high of 61 today, low tonight 41, then a warmup to 78.

 

I love this time of year when weather is variable. Makes you feel alive and part of the universe.

[Phil]

That was quite the cyclone over the weekend. Gusts up to 102mph in New England (not counting Mt. Washington, which gusted into the 150's).

 

Gusted to around 50mph here for several hours with ~ 1-2" of rainfall and occasional thunder/lightning. Snowed several inches in the mountains, with blizzard conditions observed in the ridgetop communities, including Snowshoe, Wintergreen, and Wisp.

 

Took a bunch of leaves off the trees just as things were getting colorful, so this will probably go down as the worst fall foliage season since superstorm Sandy decimated the trees back in October of 2012.

[Phil]

Drizzle under this marine inversion.

[Phil]

Finally a hard freeze on the way later this week. Highs around 40*F, lows around 20*F? That's the vibe I'm getting from most guidance.

[Phil]

Another marine day today. Drizzly with a stiff east wind.

 

Looking forward to the cold shot this weekend.

[Phil]

Dropped to 22.1*F last night, still just 35*F as of 1pm here despite full sunshine. Not bad for so early in the season.

[Phil]

Decent winds last night. Tore up some of our porch screens and broke a few small branches. Probably between 50-60mph.

[Phil]

Lots of gusts between 50-60mph across the regional MESONET network, a few gusts near 65-70mph in the favored spots. Even with trees blocking my anemometer, I gusted to 43mph. Thought I was seeing lightning at first, but it was actually transformers going off as summer deadwood was breaking off trees and hitting power lines (very typical for the first windstorm of the winter, pretty much an adaptation most trees have here).

[Andie]

It's so boring here I can hardly stand it.

[Phil]

For Philly.

 

Things might be fun between the 8th and 20th.

That looks..surprisingly boring. The second week of December had serious potential, though.

[weatherfan2012]

Hey Phil was there just a small quake somewhere in the region there was for a few seconds some light rattling going on? Just wonder if you experience it as well.edit yes there was a 4.4 magatude reported in Delaware.