The biggest stuff almost always waits until the later portions of winter. Would be fairly unusual if both February and March are snoozefests.
For context, summaries of the last 10 winters in the DC area.
2006/07: No snow until Feb.
- Blowtorch and *completely* snowless until early/mid February, before the regime flipped. Not even a trace of snow in November, December, or January. Multiple wintry events during the Feb/Mar window, including the great Valentine's Day cyclone, which dropped 6" of pure sleet here. Also, that powerful Arctic front mid-month, followed by the most intense snow squalls I've ever experienced here in late February, as well as additional accumulating snows in early/mid March and early/mid April.
2007/08: Snowless Nov/Dec, active Jan-Mar
- A mostly warm winter throughout, but a multitude of powerful cyclones threw down several strong frontal boundaries and subsequent anafrontal coastal riders, some of which delivered light snowfall to the area. No measurable snowfall in November or December. The highlight of that winter was the early March frontal passage, which delivered extremely high winds (BWI, DCA, and IAD all gusted between 70-80mph) followed by blinding snow squalls.
2008/09: Cold, but mostly snowless until Mar. Epic New Years windstorm.
- Frigid at times, but largely snowless until the blizzard in March, which dropped 6" here. There was a minor clipper system in January that dropped ~ 1", and several severe wind events, the most damaging one occurring just after New Years, one in February, and two in March. April frontal passage featured convective snow squalls.
2009/10: Record breaking, epic Dec/Feb, torch Nov/Jan/Mar.
- After a furnace November, three massive blizzards occurred, one in December and two in February, along with moderate snowfalls in every month except November and March. That incredible 12 day stretch from Jan 29th to Feb 10th was the highlight of the winter, featuring 4 snowstorms that dropped 5+ feet of snow in many areas. The February 10th blizzard was a beast, featuring convective snow bands and absolute white-out conditions once the sleet/zr changed to snow. A line of snow-thunderstorms developed along the airmass boundary, and produced 50-70mph gusts area wide along with extreme snowfall rates, almost as extreme as the February 2007 snow squalls. That said, winter abruptly ended after the blizzard on February 10th, which was/is perhaps the most anticlimactic finish to a winter in modern history here.
2010/11: Mostly snowless Nov/Dec, active Jan through Mar.
- Blowtorch November, including overnight severe squall line and Baltimore tornado. Cold/snowless December, including a narrow miss on the Boxing Day blizzard, after models had it nailing us just 48hrs out. This was followed by the "commutageddon" blizzard in January, which delivered a quick 6-12" of chowder with temps at/above 32 degrees, prolific thunder/lightning, and high winds, the combination of which knocked out power to many hundreds of thousands in the DC area alone. Walking outside, it was hard to decipher between lightning and transformer explosions. There was also an epic cyclone in February, which delivered extremely high winds to the area, the likes of which I have not seen surpassed during the winter, said March 2008, and have yet to be matched since. Additional light snowfalls occurred in February and March.
2011/12: Horrible winter, snow event in Oct, snowless Nov/Dec, still mostly shoddy thereafter.
- Torch for the ages. Snow event of 2-4" in October, massive torch onward from there, into early January. Strong frontal passage just after New Years, several powerful fronts in January and February delivering snow squalls/light accumulations, blast furnace in March, then a final hurrah in April.
2012/13: Mostly snowless until Mar, blowtorch until mid-Jan.
- Crappy winter, largely snowless until March. Horrible bust March 5th-6th, with 8-12" forecast by models/NWS, end result was a warm snow that failed to accumulate. Minor 2-4" snowfall occurred on March 28th-29th, one more very light snow in early April. A powerful wind event occurred in mid-March as well.
2013/14: Frigid, snowy, w/ ~ 80% of snowfall in Feb/Mar.
Amazing winter, started in November, lasted through April, with a total of 17 winter storms. Huge Arctic blast in January, amazing blizzard in February, dropped about 18" in 8hrs, before the warm nose flipped us to mostly sleet/zr. Another powerful storm in March, dubbed the Saint Patricks Day blizzard, dropped 8-12" of powder. Snowpack almost all winter, another epic windstorm in March, followed by another accumulating snow event in early April for much of the area.
2014/15: Mostly snowless until amazing Feb/Mar.
- November was cold with a light, sloppy snow event, followed by a warm/snowless December. Clipper storm in January dropped a modest 2-4" of powder, followed by frigid temperatures. That said, the real action started in mid-February. Massive Arctic front blew through on the eve of Valentine's Day, featuring intense convective snows (up to 4-5" in ~ 45 minutes) and hurricane force gusts that lasted through the night. Temperatures plunged from the low/mid 30s, down to zero/below zero in 4hrs. A few days later, 4" of powder fell with temperatures around 10 degrees, and a few days after that, yet another 6" of snow fell, followed by 1/4" to 1/2" of zr, then another Arctic plunge. Then in early March, another 1/4" to 1/2" of zr fell, followed by 5-8" of snow on March 5th. Winter took a hiatus thereafter, until a slew of early April frontal passages, before the flip to blowtorch in late April.
2015/16: Snowless until mid-Jan blizzard, episodic snows in Feb/Mar. Warmest winter on record in some areas.
- Absolute furnace in November/December, records fell just about everywhere. Snow squalls in mid-January, very light snow event January 19th-20th, followed by an amazing blizzard in late January. Another 4" of snow/ice in February, light snowfall in early March, followed by another epic torch until a powerful windstorm/frontal passage around April fools, and a light snow event on April 9th.
So, as can be seen, it's not unusual for winters here to remain anemic into February, before turning on thereafter. Whether or not that happens this winter remains to be seen, but I'm reasonably optimistic that February will deliver at some point, perhaps March as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#historyCold season 2017/18Snowfall:
3.4”Number of winter events:
-6.7*FHighest Sustained Wind:
37mphHighest wind gust: