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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

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#251
Phil

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:34 PM

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High was 70 degrees today.

Could be snowing tomorrow evening. #march
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#252
iFred

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:48 PM

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That would be nice.

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#253
Phil

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:28 PM

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00z GFS is even deeper/further west. Nukes Fred.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#254
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:45 AM

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Snowing this morning..it was 70+ degrees 18hrs ago.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#255
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:50 AM

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Haha, 06z GFS puts an 85kt LLJ and monster UVVs right over Fred's head on Tuesday. Verbatim, with dynamics like that we're talking about a period of 4-6"/hr rates and 60-70mph winds well inland.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#256
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:15 AM

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CMC whiffs to the south. Ordinarily I wouldn't care but it was the first to recognize the south miss for Sunday's storm.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#257
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:51 AM

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Euro is a nuke. So is the UKMET.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#258
weatherfan2012

Posted 10 March 2017 - 02:51 PM

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Amazing runs but still because it march and the fact this is still the winter of 2016-17 makes me have a unease aspect to it would reather wrait until Sunday or Monday to make sure the data is still showing this or if it changed completely as exciting this looks alot can go wrong here so many have to keep expectations in check as we seen this game before where big storms were projected a few days out only to play out weaker or miss to the north march 2001 is one exsample why caution is wise.

#259
iFred

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:10 PM

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Kind of frustrating to see pro-met wet blankets out and about with "ban the snow maps" and "three inches of slop at best"

#260
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:29 PM

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Kind of frustrating to see pro-met wet blankets out and about with "ban the snow maps" and "three inches of slop at best"


Everyone is bearish..happens a lot after crappy winters.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#261
Phil

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:38 PM

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00z ECMWF buries Fred..

32052189-A08D-48C8-A984-E157E39E7E38_zps
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#262
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 08:26 AM

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What I wouldn't give to live 75 miles NE right now. These MillerB evolutions w/ the coastal redevelopment are often a problem for us here in DC. Most notable exception being the monster blizzard on 2/10/10.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#263
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 10:16 AM

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Euro shifted way east..I'm okay here but N/W gets screwed..I'm riding the edge.

Need a more amped/NW solution.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#264
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Fred went from 28" on the 00z to 6" on the 12z. This is why MillerA > MillerB evolutions 90% of the time.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#265
iFred

Posted 11 March 2017 - 03:19 PM

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Goddamnit.

 

Sounds like I won't have an idea about totals until the day after.



#266
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 03:43 PM

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Goddamnit.

Sounds like I won't have an idea about totals until the day after.


Last year's blizzard was a Miller-A. Those are usually easier to predict and perform well. This is a true Miller-B, which are much harder to predict, more unstable, and can vastly overperform even same-day expectations, or can also bust completely.

The 2/10/10 storm was a Miller-B that unexpectedly went nuclear right over us with an early phase, dropping 2ft of snow in areas forecast to receive only 6-10". Either way, you can't feel comfortable until you're within 36-48hrs when it comes to these Miller-Bs.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#267
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 08:28 PM

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So far, 00z models are amazing. Need the Euro to come back to the party, though. Snippet of the 00z CMC..epic:

271D5BDF-19AC-4A11-9C55-8E0A816667C5_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#268
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 08:35 PM

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Canadian has 30" just north of Philly according to the Kuchara methodology. Sick.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#269
iFred

Posted 11 March 2017 - 10:57 PM

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Canadian has 30" just north of Philly according to the Kuchara methodology. Sick.

Fingers crossed. Weird to think that with banding and a warm ocean water, 40 inches could be a thing.

#270
Phil

Posted 11 March 2017 - 11:29 PM

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Fingers crossed. Weird to think that with banding and a warm ocean water, 40 inches could be a thing.


That warm water actually helps, if anything. It takes a serious moisture source (like warm Gulf Stream waters) to drop 2-3 feet of snow in a subfreezing airmass. Cold airmasses can't hold that much water..it has to be continuously advected in. There aren't many places capable of pulling it off.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#271
happ

Posted 12 March 2017 - 09:19 AM

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Have fun guys! ;)

 

Is it remarkably late in winter to experience such heavy snowfall?



#272
Phil

Posted 12 March 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Have fun guys! ;)

Is it remarkably late in winter to experience such heavy snowfall?


It's nothing abnormal timing-wise, we get snow into April often times. We don't usually flip into the tropical summer circulation until May or June.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#273
Phil

Posted 12 March 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Jealous of Fred..every model nukes him with 18"+. I'm riding the fence here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#274
Phil

Posted 12 March 2017 - 10:33 AM

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Interesting to note that this is trending away from your typical Miller-B evolution given the stronger southern wave..not really a Miller-A either though. Almost a hybrid of sorts.

Oh, and about that 12z ECMWF run.. :o I'm on the edge here but my goodness..Philly gets pulverized in the deformation zone..monster UVVs/elevated instability would deliver all sorts of thunder snow and monster dendrites. Reminds me of the January 2011 storm here, almost like a summer thunderstorm except the precip was snow. Dropped 8-12" in 3hrs with temps above freezing the whole time.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#275
happ

Posted 12 March 2017 - 10:42 AM

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2011 was a good year :D


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#276
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 March 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Interesting to note that this is trending away from your typical Miller-B evolution given the stronger southern wave..not really a Miller-A either though. Almost a hybrid of sorts.
Oh, and about that 12z ECMWF run.. :o I'm on the edge here but my goodness..Philly gets pulverized in the deformation zone..monster UVVs/elevated instability would deliver all sorts of thunder snow and monster dendrites. Reminds me of the January 2011 storm here, almost like a summer thunderstorm except the precip was snow. Dropped 8-12" in 3hrs with temps above freezing the whole time.

I would hate to be the one trying to pin point snowfall tottels here when we don't really know exactly where that rain snow line sets up that really the million dollar question and why it such a challenging forecasts for the city's as if the line stays east the higher snow tottels could verfi but if the line came further west then expected it could be mostly a wet storm in the 95 location which is the issue with the early snow fall forecasts.one thing you got right Phil was you warned a while back ago that la nina years can have these sneaky late season events just when you thought it was over it sort of sneaks in at the last seacond which is not unusual with some nina years.I saw you brought up 3-6-13 and that a good exsample of what can go wrong and why caution has to be used.as exciting as it looks there is also an even chance it ends up being an epic failure in the local region not trying to pour on the prade but just stating it is a possibility.

#277
Phil

Posted 12 March 2017 - 09:29 PM

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For the DC area, I'm very skeptical that this will be anything special, though folks up north of the Mason-Dixon Line will still get hammered.

The southern 500mb vort keeps trending slower/SW-ward relative to the northern vort, which results in a more positively-tilted phase axis and boundary layer temperature issues on copious warm air advection. Great for folks in Philly/NYC/New England since the warm seclusion will occur later when the SLP has gained latitude, but it's terrible for DC/BWI.

Still, someone in that deformation band up north will probably wind up getting 30"+. Where it sets up is still a question.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#278
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 March 2017 - 09:51 PM

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For the DC area, I'm very skeptical that this will be anything special, though folks up north of the Mason-Dixon Line will still get hammered.
The southern 500mb vort keeps trending slower/SW-ward relative to the northern vort, which results in a more positively-tilted phase axis and boundary layer temperature issues on copious warm air advection. Great for folks in Philly/NYC/New England since the warm seclusion will occur later when the SLP has gained latitude, but it's terrible for DC/BWI.
Still, someone in that deformation band up north will probably wind up getting 30"+. Where it sets up is still a question.

this is why in these close call storms these early snow fall forecasts are looking for trouble as to many things can go wrong especially in march.we likey will have to wrait a few years when the next west Basen nino with the solar minimum that will likey be our next very big snow storm winter all.19-20 as you said may be a good one.

#279
iFred

Posted 13 March 2017 - 04:52 AM

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For the DC area, I'm very skeptical that this will be anything special, though folks up north of the Mason-Dixon Line will still get hammered.

The southern 500mb vort keeps trending slower/SW-ward relative to the northern vort, which results in a more positively-tilted phase axis and boundary layer temperature issues on copious warm air advection. Great for folks in Philly/NYC/New England since the warm seclusion will occur later when the SLP has gained latitude, but it's terrible for DC/BWI.

Still, someone in that deformation band up north will probably wind up getting 30"+. Where it sets up is still a question.

 

I kind of like the idea that Boston will be the screw zone for once.


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#280
Phil

Posted 13 March 2017 - 05:46 AM

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I kind of like the idea that Boston will be the screw zone for once.


I'm with you there. You're in just about the perfect spot for this storm..that deform band is gonna park right over you tomorrow morning.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#281
Phil

Posted 13 March 2017 - 08:46 AM

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Oh my freaking goodness..the new 12z CMC mutilates Philly with about 18" in 6hrs, assuming climatogical ratios under solid dendritic growth.

Fred better post pics!
  • iFred likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#282
iFred

Posted 13 March 2017 - 11:17 AM

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This is more exciting than last year. Fingers crossed for thundersnow. I'll be out driving at around 11am before things get too bad.



#283
iFred

Posted 13 March 2017 - 01:26 PM

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Worst case scenario would be two inches of snow, three to five of sleet, and a lot of rain.

Best case would be 24 to 30 inches of snow and little to no sleet. 



#284
Phil

Posted 13 March 2017 - 01:53 PM

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First flakes are falling..here we go!
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#285
Phil

Posted 13 March 2017 - 09:40 PM

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What a sandstorm so far. Got a bit over 1" of snow, now puking sleet like I've never seen before. Have had 1/2" of sleet over the last hour, and it's only getting heavier.

The RAP/HRRR dump 5-8" of sleet here through sunrise.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#286
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 March 2017 - 11:30 PM

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Even Philly is at the edge of there seat with the mix line the warm noze is alot more stronger then data gave credit for in this storm.wow what a slap in the face for Philly and all of the big citys if the new nam model is right talk about a pretty big fail from 2 feet to a foot or even less that's almost like 3-6-13 all over again for them.this winter Phil keeps finding new ways for suck age and unfortunately it looks like lots of us got fooled into it once again the trend when you have a pitiful winter this winter can screw it with these teases.

#287
Andie

Posted 14 March 2017 - 04:54 AM

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Bethlehem, PA has about 8" as of 9 am.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#288
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 March 2017 - 06:19 AM

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The problem wasn't really the storm track as it was a good track. It was more from the fact that the ocean has been warmer than normal due to this warm winter so the storm grab all of that ocean warmth and this gave us the very strong warmth that was stuck aloft in fact this was quite a nasty ice storm for alot of the city's and 95 which is some what unusual for March to have icestorms of this impressiveness.

#289
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 06:46 AM

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Ended up with about 5" of sleet on top of 1" of snow.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#290
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 06:49 AM

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This low is tracking well west of all guidance. Wow.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#291
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Yeah the theam of things being more amp up seems to be the 2017 trend and saw it happen again with this storm

#292
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:13 AM

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Measured wrong I think. On closer inspection, looks like between 3-4" of sleet, on top of 1" of snow. Wind is blowing now, picking up clouds of sleet off the ground and blowing them against the house.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#293
iFred

Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:18 AM

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This sucks.



#294
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:30 AM

Phil

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Mesoanalysis has the low a good 50 miles west of where it was expected to be. Blizzard warnings in NYC busted horribly, some places had all winter headlines cancelled. Wow. :lol:

One of the better short term busts I can remember.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#295
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:54 AM

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This sucks.

one lesson that we tend to go by is when the set up is complex in storms like these there is always a high risk of things going wrong.our big storms tend to happen from the simplex patterns the complex ones very seldom ever work out right one thing to keep in mind going forword.

#296
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 08:46 AM

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When the winds started gusting out of the ESE last night, I knew we were in trouble w/ the low pressure position. That doesn't happen under an ideal Gulf Stream-oriented track.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#297
Phil

Posted 14 March 2017 - 04:10 PM

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Why is there no wind advisory? Gusting well into the 45-50mph range right now.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#298
Andie

Posted 15 March 2017 - 06:34 AM

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Crazy weather for you guys. And here we sit in the southwest with gorgeous skies and cool weather.

Many here are worried the wildfires that are raging in Ok, Ks, Co, and the Panhandle will migrate into North Tx. If we don't get a respectable amount of rain, we'll be fighting wildfires here too. Spring winds in our area are usually strong and that spells disaster.

That said, any opinions on our rainfall in Texas this spring ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#299
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 March 2017 - 01:59 PM

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The winds are really howling today some impressive gust out there.today is the most feeling and looking winter type day that we have had all winter leave it to march to produce a real winter day.

#300
Andie

Posted 15 March 2017 - 06:23 PM

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When ave a dry week in the 80's ahead of us.

Wow, we need rain.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.