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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017


Phil

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Amazing runs but still because it march and the fact this is still the winter of 2016-17 makes me have a unease aspect to it would reather wrait until Sunday or Monday to make sure the data is still showing this or if it changed completely as exciting this looks alot can go wrong here so many have to keep expectations in check as we seen this game before where big storms were projected a few days out only to play out weaker or miss to the north march 2001 is one exsample why caution is wise.

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Kind of frustrating to see pro-met wet blankets out and about with "ban the snow maps" and "three inches of slop at best"

Everyone is bearish..happens a lot after crappy winters.

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00z ECMWF buries Fred..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/32052189-A08D-48C8-A984-E157E39E7E38_zpsrgglmz0o.png

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What I wouldn't give to live 75 miles NE right now. These MillerB evolutions w/ the coastal redevelopment are often a problem for us here in DC. Most notable exception being the monster blizzard on 2/10/10.

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Euro shifted way east..I'm okay here but N/W gets screwed..I'm riding the edge.

 

Need a more amped/NW solution.

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Fred went from 28" on the 00z to 6" on the 12z. This is why MillerA > MillerB evolutions 90% of the time.

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Goddamnit.

 

Sounds like I won't have an idea about totals until the day after.

Last year's blizzard was a Miller-A. Those are usually easier to predict and perform well. This is a true Miller-B, which are much harder to predict, more unstable, and can vastly overperform even same-day expectations, or can also bust completely.

 

The 2/10/10 storm was a Miller-B that unexpectedly went nuclear right over us with an early phase, dropping 2ft of snow in areas forecast to receive only 6-10". Either way, you can't feel comfortable until you're within 36-48hrs when it comes to these Miller-Bs.

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So far, 00z models are amazing. Need the Euro to come back to the party, though. Snippet of the 00z CMC..epic:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/271D5BDF-19AC-4A11-9C55-8E0A816667C5_zpskvvbj3hp.png

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Fingers crossed. Weird to think that with banding and a warm ocean water, 40 inches could be a thing.

That warm water actually helps, if anything. It takes a serious moisture source (like warm Gulf Stream waters) to drop 2-3 feet of snow in a subfreezing airmass. Cold airmasses can't hold that much water..it has to be continuously advected in. There aren't many places capable of pulling it off.

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Have fun guys! ;)

 

Is it remarkably late in winter to experience such heavy snowfall?

It's nothing abnormal timing-wise, we get snow into April often times. We don't usually flip into the tropical summer circulation until May or June.

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Interesting to note that this is trending away from your typical Miller-B evolution given the stronger southern wave..not really a Miller-A either though. Almost a hybrid of sorts.

 

Oh, and about that 12z ECMWF run.. :o I'm on the edge here but my goodness..Philly gets pulverized in the deformation zone..monster UVVs/elevated instability would deliver all sorts of thunder snow and monster dendrites. Reminds me of the January 2011 storm here, almost like a summer thunderstorm except the precip was snow. Dropped 8-12" in 3hrs with temps above freezing the whole time.

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Interesting to note that this is trending away from your typical Miller-B evolution given the stronger southern wave..not really a Miller-A either though. Almost a hybrid of sorts.

Oh, and about that 12z ECMWF run.. :o I'm on the edge here but my goodness..Philly gets pulverized in the deformation zone..monster UVVs/elevated instability would deliver all sorts of thunder snow and monster dendrites. Reminds me of the January 2011 storm here, almost like a summer thunderstorm except the precip was snow. Dropped 8-12" in 3hrs with temps above freezing the whole time.

I would hate to be the one trying to pin point snowfall tottels here when we don't really know exactly where that rain snow line sets up that really the million dollar question and why it such a challenging forecasts for the city's as if the line stays east the higher snow tottels could verfi but if the line came further west then expected it could be mostly a wet storm in the 95 location which is the issue with the early snow fall forecasts.one thing you got right Phil was you warned a while back ago that la nina years can have these sneaky late season events just when you thought it was over it sort of sneaks in at the last seacond which is not unusual with some nina years.I saw you brought up 3-6-13 and that a good exsample of what can go wrong and why caution has to be used.as exciting as it looks there is also an even chance it ends up being an epic failure in the local region not trying to pour on the prade but just stating it is a possibility.
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For the DC area, I'm very skeptical that this will be anything special, though folks up north of the Mason-Dixon Line will still get hammered.

 

The southern 500mb vort keeps trending slower/SW-ward relative to the northern vort, which results in a more positively-tilted phase axis and boundary layer temperature issues on copious warm air advection. Great for folks in Philly/NYC/New England since the warm seclusion will occur later when the SLP has gained latitude, but it's terrible for DC/BWI.

 

Still, someone in that deformation band up north will probably wind up getting 30"+. Where it sets up is still a question.

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For the DC area, I'm very skeptical that this will be anything special, though folks up north of the Mason-Dixon Line will still get hammered.

The southern 500mb vort keeps trending slower/SW-ward relative to the northern vort, which results in a more positively-tilted phase axis and boundary layer temperature issues on copious warm air advection. Great for folks in Philly/NYC/New England since the warm seclusion will occur later when the SLP has gained latitude, but it's terrible for DC/BWI.

Still, someone in that deformation band up north will probably wind up getting 30"+. Where it sets up is still a question.

this is why in these close call storms these early snow fall forecasts are looking for trouble as to many things can go wrong especially in march.we likey will have to wrait a few years when the next west Basen nino with the solar minimum that will likey be our next very big snow storm winter all.19-20 as you said may be a good one.
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I kind of like the idea that Boston will be the screw zone for once.

I'm with you there. You're in just about the perfect spot for this storm..that deform band is gonna park right over you tomorrow morning.

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Oh my freaking goodness..the new 12z CMC mutilates Philly with about 18" in 6hrs, assuming climatogical ratios under solid dendritic growth.

 

Fred better post pics!

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What a sandstorm so far. Got a bit over 1" of snow, now puking sleet like I've never seen before. Have had 1/2" of sleet over the last hour, and it's only getting heavier.

 

The RAP/HRRR dump 5-8" of sleet here through sunrise.

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Even Philly is at the edge of there seat with the mix line the warm noze is alot more stronger then data gave credit for in this storm.wow what a slap in the face for Philly and all of the big citys if the new nam model is right talk about a pretty big fail from 2 feet to a foot or even less that's almost like 3-6-13 all over again for them.this winter Phil keeps finding new ways for suck age and unfortunately it looks like lots of us got fooled into it once again the trend when you have a pitiful winter this winter can screw it with these teases.

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Bethlehem, PA has about 8" as of 9 am.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The problem wasn't really the storm track as it was a good track. It was more from the fact that the ocean has been warmer than normal due to this warm winter so the storm grab all of that ocean warmth and this gave us the very strong warmth that was stuck aloft in fact this was quite a nasty ice storm for alot of the city's and 95 which is some what unusual for March to have icestorms of this impressiveness.

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Measured wrong I think. On closer inspection, looks like between 3-4" of sleet, on top of 1" of snow. Wind is blowing now, picking up clouds of sleet off the ground and blowing them against the house.

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Mesoanalysis has the low a good 50 miles west of where it was expected to be. Blizzard warnings in NYC busted horribly, some places had all winter headlines cancelled. Wow. :lol:

 

One of the better short term busts I can remember.

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When the winds started gusting out of the ESE last night, I knew we were in trouble w/ the low pressure position. That doesn't happen under an ideal Gulf Stream-oriented track.

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Crazy weather for you guys. And here we sit in the southwest with gorgeous skies and cool weather.

 

Many here are worried the wildfires that are raging in Ok, Ks, Co, and the Panhandle will migrate into North Tx. If we don't get a respectable amount of rain, we'll be fighting wildfires here too. Spring winds in our area are usually strong and that spells disaster.

 

That said, any opinions on our rainfall in Texas this spring ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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When ave a dry week in the 80's ahead of us.

 

Wow, we need rain.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm in FL currently, escaping the nasty wx back home. My cousin says the wind was crazy, but no damage to our trees or the house, thankfully.

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Where are you located ?

 

We have a week of 80* ahead and no rain in the long term forecast. April and early May are our best rain months until fall. If we don't get enough rain, this is going to get ugly.

 

On another note: in Peru they're having torrential rains and mud flows. It's their Fall and with all that moisture it makes one wonder what their winter will be like.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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