East/Gulf Coast Weather 2017

[Phil]

So, I've been looking far ahead in my research over the last several months, and I think I'm ready to make a few calls. For one, I believe there is very strong evidence, perhaps undeniably so, that a slew of multidecadal system-state flips are officially upon us, operating underneath the interdecadal oscillators that have driven our clusters of warm/cold winters in recent years.

 

In regards to the upcoming winters, it should be noted that, minus a few stand-alone exceptions during solar maximums, most of our "very warm" winters tend to cluster in groups of three, with the final year featuring a clear mid-winter system state shift.

 

It just so happens that the winters of 2015/16 and 2016/17 were both historically warm, and were consistent in a number of ways outside the realm of ENSO. So, both for statistical reasons and via more complicated scientific interpolations, I believe there's a very good chance that next winter (2017/18) will mark the grand finale of the ongoing cycle of warm winters, and I also believe there will be a very notable shift in the low frequency polar/NATL circulation(s), sometime January and April of next winter.

 

While next winter will probably average warm overall, most of the governing parameters are/will be headed in a decisively "colder" direction as the current 11 year Schwabe solar magnetic cycle winds down, the QBO eventually flips negative (evidence of the next -QBO is now manifesting at the stratopause following the most recent SAO cycle), and the global meridional thermal gradient in ocean-heat content continues to sharpen (both due to multidecadal fluid-inertial resonances already ongoing, and a continuation of the longer during transition into the neiglacial circulation, in response to decreasing obliquity/tightening meridional insolation gradient).

 

So, without getting into the mechanics of it all, I really do think the next several years (2017-2020) will be exciting to watch unfold, and if anything are a prelude to even bigger changes during 2020-2025. Assuming the system state remains in its late-Holocene, post-LIA mode, then, given the established system state response(s) to external forcings in relation to its antecedent fluid resonant mode during perturbation, I think we can expect the following ENSO results:

 

2017/18: Weak Niño/warm neutral

2018/19: Uncertain (boundary year)

2019/20: Mod/Strong El Niño (solar minimum response)

2020/21: Mod/Strong La Niña (rebound year)

2021/22: Mod/Strong La Niña (rebound year)

2022/23: Uncertain (boundary year)

 

Looking forward to watching this all unfold.

[weatherfan2012]

I'm concerned about the over all dryness we are seeing from the south up to pa having a dry April and may after a dry winter is never a good combination when you are going into the summer months.we could very well have a weak to moderate drought this summer into early fall if so this will only increase the hot out come this summer.another thing is if we do have a moderate drought this summer thunderstorm season this summer could well suck even more then last summer which would really be the ultimate slap in the face after a almost complete no show of much happening excitement wise for most of this past fall and winter .it really has been as bad as it gets for excitement weather wise since the 2015 fall really.

[Andie]

Gorgeous spring week this week and Saturday will deliver a cold front, chilly temps and more rain.

We're actually having a very classic spring.

[Phil]

Nice thunderstorm rolling through here. Just missed by a 70+mph microburst:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D3C7EC5F-425F-4480-B3C6-266291F6B910_zps1az5rzzp.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/876C8833-9666-468B-A7E5-4AE3EE6B713F_zps26kwjwgs.jpg

[Phil]

I'll be out in Atlanta next week. Just in time for any chance of severe to evaporate away.

Going to be some big-time severe weather between 4/28 and 5/3 somewhere in the central/eastern US. Exactly where TBD.

[weatherfan2012]

Pretty potent cell to the west it's a lone cell but pretty potent looking on radar have to see if it expands or not.

[Phil]

Pretty potent cell to the west it's a lone cell but pretty potent looking on radar have to see if it expands or not.

Yeah, that should be severe warned. Might miss just to the north of here but hoping it makes a slight southward jog.

 

Kinda muggy out there, 80*F, dewpoint of 70*F.

[weatherfan2012]

Nice thunderstorm rolling through here. Just missed by a 70+mph microburst:http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D3C7EC5F-425F-4480-B3C6-266291F6B910_zps1az5rzzp.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/876C8833-9666-468B-A7E5-4AE3EE6B713F_zps26kwjwgs.jpg

the worse of the storms split just south and North of me baltimore county look like it got hit pretty hard as the storms sort of emerge a bit there.can't complain those as most April events we would be stuck in the crappy northeast flow with light rain or mist.so to get good convection is a win eather way.

[Phil]

Here we go, just got severe warned:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E8992C9E-2865-4569-B1D6-6918EAA67BA6_zps0cjdb9bm.png

[Phil]

Here she comes:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/15C954A7-1129-4EC1-8908-F64FF382F2CD_zpseta4nd8k.jpg

[weatherfan2012]

DC getting raked pretty good or just to the northeast of dc that was quite a hail storm in Chevy chase looking at that video just now which confirms a severe cell and not just doppler indicated.

[weatherfan2012]

Chasers reported ping pong size hail that storm took on some supercell types to it nice.

[Phil]

Near miss, breezy and moderate rain. Barely even heard thunder, but saw some epic clouds. Dropped temps into the 60s.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah tottel miss here as well just got the anvel and 2 Distence rumbles of thunder no rain.amazing differents locations can make with small size convection.

[Phil]

Narrow swath of microburst damage across east Bethesda and NW DC, almost in the same place as last night. Most of the downed trees are older oaks and pines compromised by the drought.

 

Don't see any tulip poplars or sycamores down, though that's not surprising given they naturally conform to westerly winds. It generally takes winds over 80mph to take them down, so I think we can assume the winds in this storm were

[Phil]

Found these on Twitter:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6FC034E9-AB19-4259-9770-CF756C8A1372_zpsz7ccrl8w.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4DE17957-DD52-47A8-96C4-46CEE792AE76_zpszrkiftv7.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CE8C2456-3B03-4D55-9C7A-0EBA38272C6D_zpsuzzubtrf.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/01FB570E-AE88-40EB-83C8-87C4B5A17788_zpsxyxtbexx.jpg

[Phil]

Some of my own pictures:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E83B0BDA-AF99-4F76-88A3-405DC83FAE8A_zpscmwecx9z.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1F67BE0D-9CD7-4938-850E-CDFFE745D771_zpsymxilbxa.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3DB3229E-3610-44E5-9387-A390CDA613D6_zpswpp9ejju.jpg

[weatherfan2012]

was the top first and bottom last  picture was before the storm came by or after it went pass nice pictures impressive cloud tops for sure.In the first picture it look like a bit of an overshooting top was forming.which can be a sign of a a storm that is getting stronger or is currently being a storm that is severe.

[weatherfan2012]

Near miss, breezy and moderate rain. Barely even heard thunder, but saw some epic clouds. Dropped temps into the 60s.

storm did have a bunch of lighting as the AM radio was crackling pretty actively..

[Phil]

was the top first and bottom last picture was before the storm came by or after it went pass nice pictures impressive cloud tops for sure.In the first picture it look like a bit of an overshooting top was forming.which can be a sign of a a storm that is getting stronger or is currently being a storm that is severe.

First and third pics were taken after the storm departed. Second picture was taken upon approach.

[weatherfan2012]

Cool thanks Phil and now part two starting of this system with the showery cool ocean flow for a few days those we do need the nice gentel rain.as we have been dry.

[Phil]

Cool thanks Phil and now part two starting of this system with the showery cool ocean flow for a few days those we do need the nice gentel rain.as we have been dry.

Yeah we need the rain, though the weekend timing isn't ideal.

[Andie]

We received less than a 1/2" yesterday.

 

Today it's very windy and 57* at 1 pm.

Another set of rain coming late in the week.

 

Thank God it's a rainy spring.

It's been really nice to enjoy it.

[weatherfan2012]

Next weekend data is strongly showing what could be a taste of real summer like weather for a few days.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah we need the rain, though the weekend timing isn't ideal.

Yeah the timing does suck for sure.

[Phil]

Next weekend data is strongly showing what could be a taste of real summer like weather for a few days.

Yeah, we're heading well into the 90s late next week. Looks like the NATL boreal summer circulation is already setting up, with the azores high migrating towards Bermuda.

 

Last year, this did not begin until June, and didn't establish firmly until ~ the 4th of July.

[Phil]

We might not see any sunshine until Thursday. Looks like our annual spring drenching has arrived.

 

Last May, I saw the sun maybe three times? Hopefully it doesn't last as long this year.

[Thunder98]

The high in Bangor, Maine yesterday was 39F.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBGR/2017/4/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Bangor&req_state=ME&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=04401&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

[Phil]

The high in Bangor, Maine yesterday was 39F.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBGR/2017/4/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Bangor&req_state=ME&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=04401&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

Ouch. Yeah I'd take heat over that, at this point at least.

[Phil]

The first 10 days of May have potential to be huge in the severe weather department around these parts, as well as the Plains and Midwest. The pattern evolution depicted going forward reminds of some of our most memorable events.

[Andie]

We'll see 90* today then back to a high of 80.

Summers on the doorstep.

[Phil]

Windy from the E/NE today with this coastal storm. We need the rain badly, but I'd prefer it fall in thunderstorms rather than prolonged stratiform events like this.

[Phil]

Both Saturday and Monday could be bigly severe days.

[Phil]

Saturday could be a historic severe day *if* there was more forcing around, verbatim. Soundings are insane looking, but there's no large scale trigger.

 

Though sometimes it just takes one storm to perturb the atmosphere and start dropping the dominoes.

[Andie]

North Texas should get 1" of rain Saturday.

 

It's been a good Spring for rain here.

[weatherfan2012]

Saturday could be a historic severe day *if* there was more forcing around, verbatim. Soundings are insane looking, but there's no large scale trigger.

Though sometimes it just takes one storm to perturb the atmosphere and start dropping the dominoes.

the follow up storm the 3-5th may is the one some is excited about currently for severe weather.

[Phil]

Flashbulb lightning ongoing in the distance as this QLCS moves out of the mountains.

 

Currently 69/67 with a light haze.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah plus a cell went up over the bay as well

[weatherfan2012]

Flashbulb lightning ongoing in the distance as this QLCS moves out of the mountains.

Currently 69/67 with a light haze.

many people are likey getting woke up by some loud thunder boomers giving the lighting with these storms

[weatherfan2012]

Lancaster pa about to get raked over the next hafe an hour