Madtown Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Let's see what happens! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I love the title to this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Exciting thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS really driving down the energy. 1006 L in SE CO at HR 120 with Nebraska getting snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS is faster with the energy which forces it to start to dig because of the incoming HP 1006 L in N. Texas at HR 132 with snow in IL/IA/NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 00z GFS a little colder for next Mon/Tue system and keeps it all snow from the IL/WI border on north.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 00z GFS...weak sauce... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/132/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/144/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/150/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Funny title, but man, kinda out there, ay? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GEM way different than GFS. 992 over Madison or so at HR 144 gosaints gets hammered. Strong/wrapped up system with a 1037 high in North Dakota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gotta find the humor somehow in Madtown...too bad what snow does fall will prob be gone in a few days if that storm on its heels cuts NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS keeps it a 2 piece system from what it looks like sending some WAA snows on Monday with the main system coming in from the SW on Tue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GEM gets it down to 986 in W. MI. Goes from KS to eastern/central IA through MSN and then up by Sheboygan. 12+ for Green Bay North. 4-6 for gosaints area with a lot of ice (most likely) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 When does the GGEM not have a wound up bomb? Seems like every system this year it has several runs showing a very strong storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 When does the GGEM not have a wound up bomb? Seems like every system this year it has several runs showing a very strong storm. True. I don't think we'll get a model consensus on this system for another 3 days or so. GFS jumped big time the last few runs, and GEM is doing the same for the most part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 True. I don't think we'll get a model consensus on this system for another 3 days or so. GFS jumped big time the last few runs, and GEM is doing the same for the most part.Would be nice if the NAO didn't pop positive during this period while the AO plays ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Check out this temp gradient: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/144/sfct.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 It goes from this: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/144/sfct.us_mw.png To this: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/150/sfct.us_mw.png In 6 hours.... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/150/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png Those winds... Would be fun to experience tbh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Tons of precip: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/162/qpf_048h.us_mw.png Would be a pretty good flash freeze with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ride CMC? Is it ever right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z GFS looks more south with snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 O Canada! Our home and native land! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z GFS...Looking like a few flakes might be flying but model consensus has been terrible so not holding my breath. Gut feeling tells me it will be north and we end up with a cold rain. Maybe Money and gosaints do well with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z GFS... Nice to see some (any) solutions south at this range. Gives some room for north shifting which seems much more likely with yet another track to the NW of me. As of Wed, CPC liking Niko in far north Detroit as the only MI poster to maybe get heavy snow on the front side. The mix for me over to Chicago would be where my money's riding. Now, 3" of "sneet" like last season I'd gladly take, but this ain't that set-up. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS..slop fest for N IL...snow to rain back to snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 welcome to november... i mean the dead of winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS..slop fest for N IL...snow to rain back to snow... I'd actually take that scenario at this point. I've seen 4-5" of heavy snow hold up to quite a bit of rain, especially if the ground underneath is actually cold/frozen. Would just like to get another plow-able synoptic event tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Is that all snow for IA or rain thrown in there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think the 12z Euro came in a little colder for IA/WI/MN posters...might be an all snow event for those north of the "cheddar curtain"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think the 12z Euro came in a little colder for IA/WI/MN posters...might be an all snow event for those north of the "cheddar curtain"...12z runs show pretty decent agreement on timing and placement among the GFS/GGEM/Euro all things considered. Strength of the low differs but all 3 show the system in the same general vicinity. What could go wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think the 12z Euro came in a little colder for IA/WI/MN posters...might be an all snow event for those north of the "cheddar curtain"... Has probably .3-.5 QPF all snow for IA/WI/MN def. came in south and colder. Much more precip as well with it. Cuts through southern WI up into MI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS Ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f120.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GFS is a bit north/stronger/warmer http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010518/114/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010518/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Suck a** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z GFS Ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f120.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f132.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 00z GFS coming in way north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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