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Jan 10th/11th Disturbance - Is that snow or middle fingers falling from the sky?


Madtown

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When does the GGEM not have a wound up bomb? Seems like every system this year it has several runs showing a very strong storm.

 

True. I don't think we'll get a model consensus on this system for another 3 days or so. 

 

GFS jumped big time the last few runs, and GEM is doing the same for the most part. 

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True. I don't think we'll get a model consensus on this system for another 3 days or so.

 

GFS jumped big time the last few runs, and GEM is doing the same for the most part.

Would be nice if the NAO didn't pop positive during this period while the AO plays ball.

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It goes from this:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/144/sfct.us_mw.png

 

To this:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/150/sfct.us_mw.png

 

In 6 hours....

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/150/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

 

Those winds...

 

Would be fun to experience tbh

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06z GFS...

 

Nice to see some (any) solutions south at this range. Gives some room for north shifting which seems much more likely with yet another track to the NW of me. As of Wed, CPC liking Niko in far north Detroit as the only MI poster to maybe get heavy snow on the front side. The mix for me over to Chicago would be where my money's riding. Now, 3" of "sneet" like last season I'd gladly take, but this ain't that set-up.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS..slop fest for N IL...snow to rain back to snow...

 

I'd actually take that scenario at this point. I've seen 4-5" of heavy snow hold up to quite a bit of rain, especially if the ground underneath is actually cold/frozen. Would just like to get another plow-able synoptic event tbh.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think the 12z Euro came in a little colder for IA/WI/MN posters...might be an all snow event for those north of the "cheddar curtain"...

12z runs show pretty decent agreement on timing and placement among the GFS/GGEM/Euro all things considered. Strength of the low differs but all 3 show the system in the same general vicinity. What could go wrong?

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I think the 12z Euro came in a little colder for IA/WI/MN posters...might be an all snow event for those north of the "cheddar curtain"...

 

Has probably .3-.5 QPF all snow for IA/WI/MN def. came in south and colder.

 

Much more precip as well with it. Cuts through southern WI up into MI. 

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