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January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail


Tom

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Model consensus at this stage of the game is still far apart among the models.  However, it does seem like there will be a weather cocktail of precip types with this long duration system as it cuts off and slowly migrates into the central CONUS.

 

12z GFS:

 

Ice:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011012/174/zr_acc.conus.png

 

 

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Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice.

 

http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. 

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Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice.

 

http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. 

 

Lived in S. Bend at that time and was taken by surprise by that bliz. Was fun seeing stuck vehicles on the way home, and we were on the very east edge of the meaningful impact zone. Krazy storm iirc, rained for like an entire day before turning into a snowstorm outta nowhere.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I wonder if this added snowcover in WI/MN could help keep temps down enough for frozen precip. Some areas could get up to a foot of snow in the next few days

 

Seems like GFS is colder than last run

Money you have access to precip maps for the EURO right?

 

If not no worries, but I'd really appreciate it if you could post them! Trying to get a general consensus on what we're dealing with this weekend.

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Money you have access to precip maps for the EURO right?

 

If not no worries, but I'd really appreciate it if you could post them! Trying to get a general consensus on what we're dealing with this weekend.

 

Lincoln is pretty much all rain.

 

Central NE gets hit with ice and western NE gets hit with snow (8-10+)

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Lincoln is pretty much all rain.

 

Central NE gets hit with ice and western NE gets hit with snow (8-10+)

Kind of what I figured judging by those 850 maps. Thanks for the update though!! Interested to see how the GFS takes it, Flowers is saying EURO is the outlier, not sure I buy that necessarily but who knows.

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Hope this turns out into a massive snowstorm! :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice.

 

http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. 

I remember a friend of mine was traveling from Montreal to London at that time and his flight got canceled because of an massive icestorm in the Montreal area.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@indianajohn

 

I heard Chios is having some snow. I even saw some impressive photos.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z GFS Para:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

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