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2017 ENSO Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:39 AM

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Could there be another El Nino brewing???  I know there isn't much talk about this in many circles, but I find it interesting that the possibility of another Nino is on the table.  Some mets believed the oceans would be cooling in the central Pacific after a very strong Nino a year ago.  Mother Nature may have another trick up her sleeve.

 

Let's discuss...

 

Thus far, the CFSv2 model has a modiki-type El Nino brewing by June/July of this year.  By June, SST's are warming...

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_5.png

 

 

 

By July, a moderate El Nino has formed...

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_6.png

 

 

 

By October, a classic modiki signature Nino in the works.  This could be very important to next year's LRC pattern.

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png

 

 



#2
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:41 AM

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The new Euro Seasonal has a modiki - El Nino developing durring MJJ period...

 

C2cfYHNXEAEiMif.jpg



#3
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:42 AM

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The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter...

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif

 

 

Summer months....

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif



#4
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 18 January 2017 - 10:17 AM

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Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope.
  • jaster220 likes this

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.8"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#5
Thunder98

Posted 18 January 2017 - 04:24 PM

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The latest JAMSTEC has a weak Nino during the summer months and trends cooler by next Winter...

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jan2017.gif

 

 

Summer months....

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jan2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1jan2017.gif

 

The weakest and shortest El Nino ever? I'm not sure if an El Nino will develop this year?


Edited by Thunder98, 18 January 2017 - 04:25 PM.


#6
snow_wizard

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:46 PM

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I'm skeptical.

 

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year.  Besides that we are at very low solar activity now.  If there is one it should be weak and short lived.  A lot going against this.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#7
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:00 PM

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I'm skeptical.

 

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year.  Besides that we are at very low solar activity now.  If there is one it should be weak and short lived.  A lot going against this.

 

I agree.  It doesn't seem like the atmospheric conditions would hold together for a long duration Nino.  Something like what the JAMSTEC is indicating may make more sense.

 

Warmer subsurface anomalies are growing of late...colder waters are disappearing rather quickly...

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#8
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:03 PM

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CFSv2 is showing a weak Nino during the summer months...

 

glbSSTSeaInd5.gif



#9
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:16 PM

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Something on the order of a weaker (or warm neutralish) 09-10 type with low solar, enhanced -NAO/-AO and a favorable QBO could be great next winter.
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#10
Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:19 PM

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Something on the order of a weaker (or warm neutralish) 09-10 type with low solar, enhanced -NAO/-AO and a favorable QBO could be great next winter.


Would be ideal to see it a central based weak Nino, if not warm/neutral as you said.

#11
Tom

Posted 19 January 2017 - 06:41 AM

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More model guidance suggesting, at best, a weak Nino this summer...

 

C2iRrzJXgAAt60L.jpg



#12
Tom

Posted 30 January 2017 - 07:35 AM

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Subsurface waters have been warming in the eastern equatorial regions...more robust warming in the western region...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#13
Tom

Posted 31 January 2017 - 05:57 AM

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Latest CFSv2 run showing a solid Modiki El Nino forming in the central PAC by July...

 

glbSSTMonInd6.gif

 

 

Intensifies as we approach Oct...this will be an interesting forecast going forward if in fact we see an El Nino.

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_9.png



#14
Tom

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:31 AM

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Latest CanSIPS model is trending towards an El Nino late Summer into the Fall/Winter...

 

cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png

 

cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_9.png

 

 

 

cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_11.png

 

cansips_ssta_noice_cpac_12.png



#15
Tom

Posted 06 February 2017 - 09:19 AM

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SST subsurface anomalies are surging in the eastern equatorial regions...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

ENSO 1.2 region is warming dramatically of late...

 

sstaanim.gif

 

ssta_c.gif



#16
Niko

Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:29 AM

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From TWC:  La Niña has officially faded away and there is a chance El Niño could develop later this year, according to an update issued Thursday by meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Generally weak La Niña conditions have been in place since late fall, meaning cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures stretched across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But an analysis of recent sea surface temperatures indicates water temperatures in that region have retreated to levels that are just slightly below average, and therefore, no longer meeting La Niña criteria.

"Even though it was fairly weak and short-lived ... it did leave impacts," Mike Halpert of NOAA told The Associated Press.

One prominent feature consistent with La Niña this winter has been the above-average temperatures we've seen in the South and mid-Atlantic. The northern Plains saw colder-than-average temperatures in December, which is also consistent with La Niña, but was then near or slightly above average in January.

Perhaps the most pronounced features of La Niña's impact on the atmosphere is the impressively heavy snow and persistent cold in the West, and heavy rainfall near Indonesia. 

(MORE: Winter Storms of 2016-17 Season, So Far)

dec-ssts.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe

The blue area in the red box indicates cooler than average water temperatures during late-December 2016 in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That indicates La Niña conditions were present. (NOAA)

NOAA expects neutral conditions to persist through the spring, meaning water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will neither be in the La Niña nor El Niño state.

Looking ahead to later this year, it's possible that El Niño could make a reappearance as some climate models are suggesting. NOAA is giving that about a 50 percent chance of happening sometime September-November.

The colored lines on the image below are various model forecasts for water temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region that is used to determine whether La Niña, El Niño or neutral conditions are present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions means that neither La Niña or El Niño is present.

Through spring, those lines are clustered between the 0.5 and -0.5 degrees Celsius anomalies, meaning neutral conditions are present as NOAA is forecasting. By late summer or fall, the lines for some of the models exceed an anomaly of 0.5 degrees Cesisus, which means El Niño is forecast by those models. Other the other hand, numerous other models are forecasting neutral conditions to persist during that time. 

NOAA-CPC did caution, however, that these El Niño/La Niña model forecasts this time of year are very uncertain and that the atmospheric response described above remains very typical of La Niña, despite the recent warming of the sea-surface in the equatorial Pacific.

(MORE: Days Getting Longer, Temperatures Turning Warmer)

enso-plumes.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db

Dynamical and statistical model forecasts of three-month mean sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region from spring through next fall. (IRI/CPC)

If El Niño did develop later this year it could have impacts on hurricane season, and possibly weather conditions in the United States next fall or winter. But it's far too early to speculate on that, especially since El Niño may never emerge to begin with.

Last winter (2015-16) featured one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with far-reaching impacts around the globe.



#17
Tom

Posted 15 February 2017 - 06:22 AM

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The latest Feb run of the JAMSTEC certainly has a #El NINO (weak to moderate) by Summer and rolling into next Winter...

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1feb2017.gif



#18
Tom

Posted 15 February 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Hopefully this will trend to be a Modoki Nino...

 

ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1feb2017.gif



#19
Tom

Posted 15 February 2017 - 06:30 AM

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Summer/Fall SST Anomalies...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1feb2017.gif



#20
jaster220

Posted 16 February 2017 - 09:35 AM

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Summer/Fall SST Anomalies...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1feb2017.gif

 

So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs :o


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#21
Tom

Posted 16 February 2017 - 09:41 AM

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So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs :o

There are some differences on how this El Nino develops compared to the '15-'16 Super Nino which was very warm in the eastern equatorial PAC late Summer/Fall and then migrated westward during the winter.  This Nino seems to be evolving more central-based during the summer.



#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 February 2017 - 02:27 PM

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Central based Niño with a more favorable qbo already has me wanting to skip summer and start next winter.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#23
gosaints

Posted 16 February 2017 - 02:34 PM

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Central based Niño with a more favorable qbo already has me wanting to skip summer and start next winter.


Dont do this to yourself again
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#24
Tom

Posted 17 February 2017 - 05:55 AM

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Unbelievable SOI crash happening.  I've never seen it down to -51..

 

SOI values for 17 Feb 2017 Average for last 30 days -2.33

Average for last 90 days 1.47

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -51.97

 

 

 

The response has been a rapid increase in SST's in the central PAC...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png



#25
Tom

Posted 17 February 2017 - 05:59 AM

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The latest EURO ENSO plume...#El Nino 

 

C41W-9EUoAAjzZ0.jpg



#26
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 February 2017 - 12:33 PM

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Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter :( unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.8"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#27
gosaints

Posted 17 February 2017 - 12:36 PM

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Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter :( unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not.


Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range

#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 February 2017 - 03:59 PM

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Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range


Really just have to use history as a guide and hope for the best.

#29
gosaints

Posted 17 February 2017 - 04:00 PM

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Really just have to use history as a guide and hope for the best.


Ya it will be months until we have a real.idea

#30
Tom

Posted 19 February 2017 - 06:32 AM

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CFSv2 Weeklies seem to be all-in on a summer El Nino...

 

glbSSTSeaInd4.gif

 

 

 

 

 

By early Autumn, a central based Nino is present as ENSO 1.2 cools some...

 

glbSSTSeaInd6.gif


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#31
Tom

Posted 21 February 2017 - 06:05 AM

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Euro Monthly SST's showing a moderate Nino by July...

 

C5MTGRFWEAAljlX.jpg



#32
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 February 2017 - 07:05 PM

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Only case study for this I've found since 1950 at a quick glance would be some mid-60s analogs. 62-63 and 64-65 if I'm not mistaken.

#33
Tom

Posted 26 February 2017 - 06:44 AM

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Subsurface warm anomalies starting to really blossom...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

The entire equatorial PAC is nearly at, or above normal now...this has been a fast warming period.  El Nino is coming around the corner.

 

sstaanim.gif



#34
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 05:28 AM

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The latest CanSIPS model is also suggesting a "Modiki" El Nino for the summer months...

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_cpac_4.png



#35
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Another look from the CanSIPS "Modiki" El Nino in August...central PAC convection...

 

C51qSyuWcAA_LPb.jpg



#36
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 March 2017 - 03:55 PM

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Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though.

#37
Tom

Posted 03 March 2017 - 06:04 AM

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Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though.

Still to far out to pin point any details, but I find this map interesting from the CFSv2.  Here is a comparison from the Fall 2015 Nino to the forecast Nino this Fall in terms of velocity potential.  #Modiki

 

C5_YAK7UsAEcL1_.jpg

 

 

 

 

C5_YBOzVMAAqzYF.jpg



#38
Niko

Posted 07 March 2017 - 09:35 AM

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:unsure:



#39
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 March 2017 - 06:59 PM

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As long as forcing stays west of the dateline and the QBO cooperates, everything should be fine. I like the placement of the forcing as modeled.
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#40
Snowlover76

Posted 08 March 2017 - 07:13 PM

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I cant wait till summer is here.  So sick of this meh cold.  I want sun and warmth so I can go fishing a few times each week 


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#41
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:54 AM

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CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer...

 

cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_3.png



#42
NebraskaWX

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:24 AM

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CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer...

 

cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_3.png

 

What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#43
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:30 AM

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What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.

I'm not sure what the ENSO status was back in Spring '08.  Check that, just dug up the raw #'s...looks like back then it was still a weak Nina (-0.9) on avg during March-May.


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#44
Tom

Posted 16 March 2017 - 06:05 AM

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The latest March run of the JAMSTEC is indicating a bit stronger Nino by Summer/Fall 2017.

 

Summer SST's...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

Autumn SST's...

 

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

Wild run showing a strong Nino for later this year...

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2017.gif

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1mar2017.gif

 

 

FWIW, the last 3 runs have steadily increased the NINO's intensity...



#45
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:18 AM

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ENSO 1.2 region starting to torch...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png



#46
Tom

Posted 19 March 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Plenty of sub surface warm anomalies brewing up...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#47
Tom

Posted 20 March 2017 - 01:18 PM

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Any cooler SST anomalies in the central PAC are all but gone...

 

sstaanim.gif



#48
Tom

Posted 22 March 2017 - 04:49 AM

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70% of ECMWF ensembles suggest a mod/strong NINO by Sept...

 

C7hBoVRU8AEWoJe.jpg



#49
jaster220

Posted 22 March 2017 - 04:53 AM

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70% of ECMWF ensembles suggest a mod/strong NINO by Sept...

 

C7hBoVRU8AEWoJe.jpg

 

I would like to see a moderate in autumn turn into a weak during next winter. I also like to day dream..


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#50
Niko

Posted 22 March 2017 - 06:56 AM

Niko

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If that's the case, then, a really warm winter of 2017-18 will be on the way.