Tom Posted March 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017030818/cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 9, 2017 Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017030818/cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_3.png What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.I'm not sure what the ENSO status was back in Spring '08. Check that, just dug up the raw #'s...looks like back then it was still a weak Nina (-0.9) on avg during March-May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 The latest March run of the JAMSTEC is indicating a bit stronger Nino by Summer/Fall 2017. Summer SST's... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif Autumn SST's... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1mar2017.gif Wild run showing a strong Nino for later this year... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1mar2017.gif FWIW, the last 3 runs have steadily increased the NINO's intensity... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 ENSO 1.2 region starting to torch... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2017 Plenty of sub surface warm anomalies brewing up... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2017 Any cooler SST anomalies in the central PAC are all but gone... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 70% of ECMWF ensembles suggest a mod/strong NINO by Sept... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 70% of ECMWF ensembles suggest a mod/strong NINO by Sept... I would like to see a moderate in autumn turn into a weak during next winter. I also like to day dream.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 If that's the case, then, a really warm winter of 2017-18 will be on the way. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 That's sad to see things going that way. We could really use a better winter here next year. Ski hills, bars, snowmobiling, etc are all taking a beating the last two years over winter. I didn't think we'd get three bad ones in a row. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 regions 1+2 looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2017 SCRIPPS ENSO forecast for the Summer months...this model is notorious for running colder than other models. I remember this time last year it was forecasting a super Nina for last Winter. http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-06.jpg Next Fall... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-09.jpg Next Winter... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-12.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 28, 2017 Report Share Posted March 28, 2017 That's sad to see things going that way. We could really use a better winter here next year. Ski hills, bars, snowmobiling, etc are all taking a beating the last two years over winter. I didn't think we'd get three bad ones in a row. Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 28, 2017 Report Share Posted March 28, 2017 Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc. Oh good, there's some hope. I was looking over a university page, I forget which one, and they said neutral was the best snow for Chicago area historically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2017 CanSIPS models suggesting a weak Nino this summer which isn't much of a surprise as most models are thinking the same. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_3.png Looking out farther, a basin-wide Nino develops, but the warmest waters are central-based. This will be the key to winter weather fans next year as the new LRC develops in Oct/Nov. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 1, 2017 Report Share Posted April 1, 2017 Nobody knows what this Summer will bring. Mother nature will do what eva it wants. Last year the models were advertising more snow and colder temps and we ended up with a mild Winter. That goes ta show ya! Peace Ya'll. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted April 2, 2017 Report Share Posted April 2, 2017 Sorry if it's too huge of an image, pretty interesting stuff, no sun spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2017 Sorry if it's too huge of an image, pretty interesting stuff, no sun spots.This year has been abnormally low in sun spot activity, except for what has erupted recently. It'll be interesting what happens throughout this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 Interesting, the subsurface anomalies in the central PAC are growing colder while the eastern PAC waters are growing warmer... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2017 FWIW, the CFSv2 has backed off the idea of a stronger Nino developing during the summer months... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 CPC's SST analogs see the El Nino coming on in the Summer, but then backing off heading towards the Autumn... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/casst_anom.2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/casst_anom.3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Scripps udpated April run hasn't changed much and is running colder than the rest of the models... Summer... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-06.jpg Autumn... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-09.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Wow. That's extremely far east. If that one verifies, kiss next winter goodbye for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 NMME's thinking for the summer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_2.png Autumn... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_5.png November...the majority of the models suggest a central-based Nino stretching almost basin wide... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_ssta_noice_global_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 New Euro seasonal Nino Plume is showing more spread and less members in the strong category.... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls17-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-PLkAEs.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 It's wild to see the SOI rise dramatically over the 30-day base state... Latest SouthernLatest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 10 Apr 2017Average for last 30 days 3.03Average for last 90 days -1.33Daily contribution to SOI calculation 19.25 Response, ENSO 1.2 falling off a cliff! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 Borrowed this from Ryan Maue...Euro Seasonal suggesting a central base Nino right when the new LRC develops... Although, don't necessarily like the pocket of cold waters near NW NAMER...still a ways to go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 The new JAMSTEC model came in and still suggesting a Modiki El Nino developing late summer into the Fall... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1apr2017.gif However, it has ticked up the warmth of the waters. Getting close to Super Nino status during next Winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif Summer months... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif Autumn... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1apr2017.gif It is the warmest running climate model so we see how this all plays out in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted April 12, 2017 Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 Isn't a super nino super bad for winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 Isn't a super nino super bad for winter?Depends, JAMSTEC isn't necessarily looking that bad as far as the warm/cold pools placement in the PAC. I think its running a bit warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 12, 2017 Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 based on bad the long range models did for this past winter, I refuse to get sucked into any potential hype for next winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 based on bad the long range models did for this past winter, I refuse to get sucked into any potential hype for next winter Indeed, I don't get excited till I begin to analyze how the new LRC evolves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2017 Euro seasonal showing a central-based Nino on average during the summer... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-pSkqsd.png Early Autumn in retrogrades farther west and a bit warmer... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-TTJXm2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 I'd imagine with the SOI crash currently in the -30's over the last few days, we will see some jump to the ENSO warming. However, current anomalies are not all that impressive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 The new JMA seasonal has a feeble El Nino growing in the PAC... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201704.D1100_gls.png July.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201704.D1100_gls.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 CFSv2 now out to October and sure looks like the Euro in terms of placement of the warmest waters in the central PAC...meanwhile, over in the N PAC waters are cold near Hawaii. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Here is the OND period... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 I think we will see a very weak El Nino this fall. +0.5-+0.6 in the 3 and 4 region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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