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2017 ENSO Discussion


Tom

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I'm hearing the CFSv2 re-initialized and has backed off the strength of the Nino for this summer and heading into the Fall.  Recent runs barely showing a weak Nino.  If trends persist through mid summer, a weak Nino would not be bad at all.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd2.gif

 

 

 

October...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif

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Central PAC subsurface waters still coolish which will prob retard any warming in the foreseeable future.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Signs of warming on both sides of the PAC, but not in central PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

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I'll be happy if next winter is just really cold, don't need the snow but I would love it. After the last two, my standards for a happy winter have fallen massively.

'13-'14 seems like a distant memory! Wouldn't mind seeing a '76-'77 scenario next winter. Seeing some analogs and patterns in the PAC showing up.

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The shoulder season is normally a difficult time for modeling as they struggle what to do with the SST's in the PAC.  Not only has the CFSv2 backed off a moderate strength El Nino for the summer, but it's barely showing a weak Nino now.

 

Moreover, the POAMA climate model has backed off it's Nino-look from earlier in the month.

 

April 9th...

 

C-QcAB-XkAAAwkG.jpg

 

April 23rd..

 

C-QcBXGXUAA-bo2.jpg

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Took a look at the CFSv2 monthlies and it's showing some crazy weenie runs for next Autumn/Winter. I really wonder if this Nino even reaches moderate strength like earlier runs were showing. We'll see. Trends for a much colder cold season overall are on the table if the warm/cold pools align just right in the PAC.

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So you like 10 below zero, a -40 W.C., and no snow on the ground?  :huh:

It's not ideal but at least they can make snow and it'll be good snow. Once it starts getting warm and the man made snow starts freezing and thawing it ends up horrendously bad. Man made snow likes to melt down into a giant ice cube as opposed to melting and flowing away.

 

Snowboarding this year was pretty bad. The people at the hill did an amazing job given what they were dealt, but it was still pretty lousy. If we get -10 they can make a ton of really nice snow. Something I didn't even get this year from snow guns.

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Subsurface anomalies starting to show the warmth building and expanding...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

All ENSO regions are now showing positive (+) anomalies...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

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I think we'll definitively have a good idea whether or not we see a Niño within the next month or 45 days for sure. If the first round of attempts at strengthening fail in the next few weeks, any nino of significance looks relatively unlikely.

If anything, I think a weak Nino is on the table.  A moderate one is trending less likely as it stands now.  I'm interested to see what tonight's new monthly CanSIPS run shows.

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Hot off the press is the latest CanSIPS monthlies and it suggests a mod/strong Nino for this Summer heading into the Fall.  I think it is initializing much to warm off the South American coastline and I don't see the waters being that warm in the ENSO 1.2 region.  In result, I think this model may be an outlier of being to robust with the Modiki El Nino.

 

Summer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017050100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_2.png

 

 

Fall...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017050100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_5.png

 

 

Winter???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017050100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_8.png

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Meantime, the CFSv2 continues to show the trend of a weaker looking Nino for the Summer into next Fall...

 

Here was last week's run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/glbSSTSeaInd2.gif

 

Current weekly run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd2.gif

 

 

By the Fall, it's barely hanging on to a weak Nino...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif

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So you like 10 below zero, a -40 W.C., and no snow on the ground?  :huh:

 

Glad he posted what he meant, cuz tbh, I was left head scratching myself. I did get the part about lowered expectations though. But, never fear, Tom's already pumping the outlook, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting, saw this post by Ryan Maue, noting the El Nino signature in May is now gone with the wind...unfavorable trade wind???  It'll be interesting to see what the new May monthlies run suggests later this month.

 

 

C-x4-l9XUAAgQfM.jpg

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I think the recent SCRIPPS ENSO forecast is off its rocker...much to warm in the 1.2 region...

 

JJA...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-05_for_2017-06.jpg

 

SON...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-05_for_2017-09.jpg

 

 

DJF...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-05_for_2017-12.jpg

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I think the recent SCRIPPS ENSO forecast is off its rocker...much to warm in the 1.2 region...

 

JJA...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-05_for_2017-06.jpg

 

SON...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-05_for_2017-09.jpg

 

 

DJF...

 

DJF? Did you mean to show a 3rd map?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DJF? Did you mean to show a 3rd map?

Sorry, fixed...haven't had my cup off coffee yet!  Woke up at 5:45am this morning...crashed out like around 9:30 last night bc I was super exhausted from 2 hikes up in the mountains of Payson, AZ.  I did close to 12 miles of hiking up in 6,500 - 7,500ft elevation!

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Love hiking, even in MI's state parks. Out west though, that's serious stuff with the elevation and all. Had a buddy who got himself in a bit over his head on the Continental Divide trail. He was laying down exhausted and said suddenly there was an old grey bearded dude standing over him warning him about a Grizzly approaching nearby. When he got up a minute later, this guy was no where to be seen, so he felt he may have had a guarding angel encounter? ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Love hiking, even in MI's state parks. Out west though, that's serious stuff with the elevation and all. Had a buddy who got himself in a bit over his head on the Continental Divide trail. He was laying down exhausted and said suddenly there was an old grey bearded dude standing over him warning him about a Grizzly approaching nearby. When he got up a minute later, this guy was no where to be seen, so he felt he may have had a guarding angel encounter? ;)

Woah, now that is no bueno!  You gotta be careful and smart when your hiking around these parts.  Nature always makes the rules.

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Speaking of dangerous, just stumbled on this sad MI story:

 

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/04/michigan_tech_student_dies_fro.html

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC's SST CA forecast has been updated today and is showing the following:

 

Summer...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/casst_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

JAS...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/casst_anom.2.gif

 

 

 

ASO...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/casst_anom.3.gif

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Since March, the eastern equatorial PAC has cooled off quite a bit...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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The trend is real.  The JAMSTEC now is seeing a cooler trend in the Modiki Nino setting up this Summer into the Fall.  Take a look.

 

Summer...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

Autumn...interesting to note, the ring of warmth in the NE PAC is more noticeable from it's previous run.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

Next Winter???

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

Here is the 2-year ENSO forecast...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2017.gif

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The ECMWF's May run is backing off the mod/strong Nino from last month and the one prior.  Models are trending the other way as one would expect since we are now leaving the "shoulder" months of Spring when climate models tend to do a better job.

 

May's run...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls02-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-edplaH.png

 

April...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-8ql07K.png

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At first glance, it looks like the ECMWF peaks the 3.4 region in mid/late summer and then tries to level off as we head into the Autumn.  The warmest of waters continue to retrograde westward into ENSO 4 region as we head into the Autumn.  Take a look at the maps below.  The CFSv2 also has a very similar look to it.  TBH, this is a very nice trend.  Having the warmest waters shift west instead of east is great for winter enthusiasts next cold season!

 

 

Summer...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls09-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-x1wXc7.png

 

 

Autumn...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls19-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-SQRiHx.png

 

 

 

Here is the ENSO 4 region...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls09-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-85PZoi.png

 

 

 

 

Here is the latest CFSv2 monthly showing a similar SST look in the PAC for the Summer/Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd4.gif

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Interestingly, the latest IMME is showcasing a nearly perfect (IMO) SST signature during the month of November when the heart of the LRC is forming.  Of note, the model is forecasting a very cold Arctic.

 

C_0VoTIU0AAz0lV.jpg

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Mid-May Dynamic/Statistical Model runs average out to a weak NINO..

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure4-2.gif

I,m no expert but isn't it a little early to count on verification? Don't we need to get within at least 3 months before these mean anything?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sub-surface waters are warming and any cooler anomalies are all but gone.  El Nino is beginning to show case it's development???  It'll take some time but sooner, rather than later, we should see warm waters take over.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Current status of the SST's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

The +SOI has helped keep waters cooler in the ENSO 1.2 region but I'm hear the ECMWF's June forecast has a -SOI.

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Will there be a Summer El Nino as previously thought...or is Mother Nature doing a "head fake"...latest SOI rise and Euro run show un-favorable trade winds along the equatorial PAC over the next couple weeks.

 

 

DA6KDnHVYAAU71O.jpg

 

 

 

Subsurface SST anomalies not at all that impressive TBH...I remember back a few months ago that some of the models were showing El Nino conditions starting during the month of June.  Not looking like it for the time being but things could change.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

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If conditions do not become much more favorable at the end of June or sooner, the Nino should fail.

No kidding!  The trends in the CFSv2 are showing the ENSO 3.4 region not even reaching weak Nino status at all.  June may be the warmest month through next Winter.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

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