2017 ENSO Discussion

[Tom]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we go into last winter in NEUT range, only to have the winter play out like a Nino, thus all the "Nino hang-over" talk? Certainly Cali folks got the Nino treatment a year later than expected

True, but I think the N PAC warm/cold pools are going to align differently this year.  Last year, we had a strong GOA Low and troughs pounded the NW coast.

[jaster220]

True, but I think the N PAC warm/cold pools are going to align differently this year.  Last year, we had a strong GOA Low and troughs pounded the NW coast.

 

I totally get that things will likely align more favorably this winter, but my point is/was that ENSO neutral alone guarantees nothing, as we just witnessed. Other players have to line-up on the field a certain way for the NEUT "back drop" to deliver the winter goods we want.

[Tom]

I totally get that things will likely align more favorably this winter, but my point is/was that ENSO neutral alone guarantees nothing, as we just witnessed. Other players have to line-up on the field a certain way for the NEUT "back drop" to deliver the winter goods we want.

I'm very interested to see if we end up getting back to back cool biased ENSO - Neutral conditions for the winter. If that were to happen, maybe it's a start to the overall warm PDO flip? Maybe in a couple years we'll circle back and this period may be the starting point.

[OKwx2k4]

In my opinion, the weather in winter 2015-16 and this past winter was an example of poor alignment of QBO and enso along with only a marginally favorable PDO. I think the warmest waters migrating off the west coast and northwest to up near Alaska over the last 2 winters helped to "pull back" the pattern that we all like in winter to the west, leaving a ridge over the central, eastern, and southeastern US. A much more favorable alignment of the Pacific is likely this year, mostly simply because it couldn't have been much worse the last 2 years given the other variables at play.

[Tom]

La-Nina like trade winds to continue through at least the first week of June...

 

[Niko]

[Tom]

Overall, it's been a steady cooling trend back to normal...if you look at the entire spectrum of the PAC...warmest waters are clearly in the western PAC at the moment...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

[Tom]

Over the past 2 months, the very cold waters that hugged NW NAMER are retrograding westward and beginning to show signs of warming along the Alaska shoreline.  A tongue of warm water is migrating towards the west coast of the U.S.

 

Here are some maps showing the trends in the N PAC...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.27.2017.gif

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.5.25.2017.gif

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.26.2017.gif

[Tom]

It's also interesting what is happening in the Atlantic.  What has been a record winter near Greenland and the eastern part of Canada, run-off from snow/ice melt is flooding the N ATL with cold water.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.26.2017.gif

[gimmesnow]

It's also interesting what is happening in the Atlantic.  What has been a record winter near Greenland and the eastern part of Canada, run-off from snow/ice melt is flooding the N ATL with cold water.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.26.2017.gif

 

Man, that's really cool to see. You can see it just eating up the heat energy in the Atlantic and spreading out.

[Niko]

[Tom]

Here is the latest NMME NINO 3.4 region forecast...no true NINO in the picture, although, warm-biased La Nada???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

[jaster220]

Dang!

 

That photo was a totally random "web snag" and only says Michigan Highway. But, I figured it was in SWMI where x-ways and extreme effects met 40 yrs ago this January. The worst effects were in NWMI, but there's still zero x-ways across that region. Well, after studying the photo, I realized it's actually I-94 on the south side of Kalamazoo where I drive every day heading back to Marshall. That pic was taken from the Oakland Drive overpass looking east with the Westnedge Ave exit sign in the distance. Ofc, 40 yrs later it looks a lot different through there with 5 lanes, sound barrier walls, and multi-story office buildings on the north side towards Westnedge. I was looking at a historical wx data site and Kzoo had a 41" snow depth right after the mega-bliz (record depth to date). Those front loader piles had to be 6-8 feet high on each shoulder. That'd be something to see 

[Niko]

That photo was a totally random "web snag" and only says Michigan Highway. But, I figured it was in SWMI where x-ways and extreme effects met 40 yrs ago this January. The worst effects were in NWMI, but there's still zero x-ways across that region. Well, after studying the photo, I realized it's actually I-94 on the south side of Kalamazoo where I drive every day heading back to Marshall. That pic was taken from the Oakland Drive overpass looking east with the Westnedge Ave exit sign in the distance. Ofc, 40 yrs later it looks a lot different through there with 5 lanes, sound barrier walls, and multi-story office buildings on the north side towards Westnedge. I was looking at a historical wx data site and Kzoo had a 41" snow depth right after the mega-bliz (record depth to date). Those front loader piles had to be 6-8 feet high on each shoulder. That'd be something to see 

I could only imagine.......

[OKwx2k4]

Here is the latest NMME NINO 3.4 region forecast...no true NINO in the picture, although, warm-biased La Nada???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

I like warm neutral. Good winters weighted towards positive snow anomalies here.

[jaster220]

I like warm neutral. Good winters weighted towards positive snow anomalies here.

 

Yeah, I like where this could be headed. Really cold arctic, with a pseudo weak Nino could spell Kismet for the lower lakes as well.

[Tom]

Warmer pools starting to upwell in the equatorial PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Here is a global SST animation over the last 3.5 months.  Notice the changes in the equatorial PAC and in the N PAC.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, I like where this could be headed. Really cold arctic, with a pseudo weak Nino could spell Kismet for the lower lakes as well.

Yeah. I think the cold (or "cool" now that it's summer) will eventually quit spilling off the other side of the globe as we move into the autumn months this year. The drivers that have been responsible for destroying our winter seasons the past 2 years are all breaking down/reversing. Should be some fun weather times ahead.

[Niko]

Lets hope so because Its been a while since I have seen a Bliz around here IMBY. Tbh, idk if its true or not, but SEMI doesn't get lots of big storms too often in the winter, mainly small to moderate ones and on occasion, the big one hits.

 

@Jaster, you probably know about this since you have lived here in SEMI in the past. I am new to Michigan, so not much experience in Michigan weather.

[Niko]

Yeah. I think the cold (or "cool" now that it's summer) will eventually quit spilling off the other side of the globe as we move into the autumn months this year. The drivers that have been responsible for destroying our winter seasons the past 2 years are all breaking down/reversing. Should be some fun weather times ahead.

Hopefully, would really like a ton of snow during the holidays! Tis the season.......

[Minny_Weather]

I just want a good season. I am begging for an actual good season in LNK. Can Lincoln please have snowfall that sticks around? Please?

[jaster220]

Lets hope so because Its been a while since I have seen a Bliz around here IMBY. Tbh, idk if its true or not, but SEMI doesn't get lots of big storms too often in the winter, mainly small to moderate ones and on occasion, the big one hits.

 

@Jaster, you probably know about this since you have lived here in SEMI in the past. I am new to Michigan, so not much experience in Michigan weather.

 

Tbh Niko, Mega-storms are rare for extreme SEMI (M-59 and south let's say) and even truly strong storms traditionally avoided that corner of the state (NYE '08 is a classic recent example). But, S Mich has been on something of a roll since 2002-03 and even the Detroit Metro has been included in several great storms. For a legit biiz, you're talking Jan '99, though Jan of 2005 was really close imho. To my knowledge, there's been (2) top five storms for Detroit in the past 50 yrs - Feb 2015 and Dec 1974, neither of which were a true blizzard. For like 16 yrs, DTW could not buy a storm over 12". It's known as "The land of the 5-9" snowstorm" by area posters elsewhere for a reason. Nonetheless, with Jan 2018 being 40 yrs since the MOAB's hit, I feel this area's kinda due for something historic.

[Niko]

Tbh Niko, Mega-storms are rare for extreme SEMI (M-59 and south let's say) and even truly strong storms traditionally avoided that corner of the state (NYE '08 is a classic recent example). But, S Mich has been on something of a roll since 2002-03 and even the Detroit Metro has been included in several great storms. For a legit biiz, you're talking Jan '99, though Jan of 2005 was really close imho. To my knowledge, there's been (2) top five storms for Detroit in the past 50 yrs - Feb 2015 and Dec 1974, neither of which were a true blizzard. For like 16 yrs, DTW could not buy a storm over 12". It's known as "The land of the 5-9" snowstorm" by area posters elsewhere for a reason. Nonetheless, with Jan 2018 being 40 yrs since the MOAB's hit, I feel this area's kinda due for something historic.

[Tom]

As you can see, the EPS is indicating a strong easterly burst over the dateline...more evidence that the models were showing an El Nino "head fake" a couple months ago...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Odds of going into winter in a nice state of normal are increasing rather rapidly.

[jaster220]

Odds of going into winter in a nice state of normal are increasing rather rapidly.

 

Yep, just gotta get this to actually cross the finish line. Last year's freak-show QBO scenario proves Ma Nature has many cards up her sleeve, some of which are tricks, not treats

[Niko]

Lets just wait til November, then, lets talk outlooks. Mother nature can be very tricky, just like Jaster clearly states on the above statement.

[OKwx2k4]

Oh definitely erring on the side of caution after the last few years. I have zero disagreement with either of you there.

 

@Niko & Jaster.

[Tom]

The new JMA monthlies came out today and they are still singing the neutral ENSO scenario; borderline cooler ENSO which similarily, the CFSv2 is trending.  I'll post the maps below.

 

August...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201707.D1000_gls.png

 

Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201707.D1000_gls.png

 

Oct...interesting SST's in both the North/Central PAC just as the new Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH), previously known as the LRC develops. 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201707.D1000_gls.png

[Tom]

The ECMWF has updated its July SST anomaly Plume and the trend continues to show more and more plumes leaning cooler.

 

 

 

Here is another look at the JMA SST for the Aug-Oct period combined...almost looks like a La-Nina pattern...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I like the heat in the mid latitudes of the Pacific. Any Niña influence should almost guarantee at least some impressive cool/cold shots as the next pattern gets underway.

[Tom]

Here's your Sunday update from the CFSv2 weeklies...I'm intrigued how much colder the SST's have trended over the past 2-3 months with this model.  By Autumn, the CFSv2 is showing a La Nina pattern holding on through next Winter...

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd3.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif

[Tom]

Forgot to put these maps up...ENSO 3.4 region graphic...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

[Tom]

In general, the trend over the past several weeks has been the cooling off the eastern equatorial PAC basin...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

ENSO 1.2 region graphic is clearly showing this trend...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

 

 

Not as many warm pockets showing up as the last couple weekly updates at the surface...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Minny_Weather]

La Nina, even cold neutral years in the Central Plains tend to be very back-heavy with snow. Weak Nina events are also really weird here. 1964-65, a weak Nina, was one of the largest seasonal snowfall totals in LNK history at 42.1". Just a few seasons later, 1967-68 gave us our lowest seasonal snowfall in recorded history at 7.2", that year also being weak Nina. 

 

2008-2009, one of the cold neutral years that is being compared to this upcoming Winter due to the similar solar conditions, was much like last Winter with overall temperature swings. Only exception was while snowfall was not great, lighter 1-2" events were more frequent and there were two 3"+ storms in LNK in 2008-09.

[Tom]

Could we seriously be looking at a weak La Nina next Autumn/Winter???  CFSv2 really starting to trend that way...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[Tom]

Central PAC trade winds showing strong Nina conditions Week 2....

 

[Niko]

[Tom]

Nina-like conditions in the central PAC will continue next couple weeks...

 

[Niko]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml