2017 ENSO Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

I agree that a cool neutral year is likely at this point, but what are they smoking to see that a nino is more likely than a nina?

[Tom]

For the most part, all ENSO regions are declining...

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

I agree that a cool neutral year is likely at this point, but what are they smoking to see that a nino is more likely than a nina?

Tbh, idk. They can be right or wrong and we will all find out when Winter is done with next year. That is what makes weather so great. You get to see so many challenges that occur.

[Tom]

Interesting look to the subsurface waters as "Nina"-like conditions starting to emerge in the PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

The eastern equatorial regions have cooled over the last 2 consecutive months...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif

[Tom]

Here is the latest August NMME run for ENSO 3.4 region...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.NMME.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

[Tom]

CPC's ENSO Diagnostic Update: 85% chance ENSO neutral conditions favored July-Sept, 55% DFJM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[Tom]

Starting to see more widespread cooling across the equatorial PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

 

Subsurface anomalies are growing cooler and its not a coincidence some of the global models are seeing a possible La Nina next Winter.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Tom]

JMA has an uptick in cooler waters along the equatorial PAC when compared to previous run.  

 

Last month's run is below for the same period (Sept)...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201707.D1000_gls.png

 

 

 

Current run...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201708.D0900_gls.png

[OKwx2k4]

Also of note, and I believe to be of some importance, is the large increase in the NW PAC temps. Everything really seems to be heading in a pretty positive direction in my opinion.

[Tom]

Also of note, and I believe to be of some importance, is the large increase in the NW PAC temps. Everything really seems to be heading in a pretty positive direction in my opinion.

Yup, I was going to post on that tomorrow. You read my mind. Warmth in the Bearing Sea usually means a +PNA signal.

[OKwx2k4]

Yup, I was going to post on that tomorrow. You read my mind. Warmth in the Bearing Sea usually means a +PNA signal.

Cool. I will await your post and elaborate after.

[Tom]

+SST anomalies have been growing substantially across the Bearing Sea, and as @Okwx mentioned, across the NW PAC since the middle of the year.  Here is a map showing the state of the PAC waters on June 1st of this year:

 

Quiet cool overall...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.1.2017.gif

 

 

As of 8/14/17, the N PAC ocean waters have warmed up during the summer season but the pocket of cooler waters N of Hawaii is still present.  I tried finding a map showing the depth of the cool pocket but I suspect it to be rather deep.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.14.2017.gif

 

 

Typically, warmer than avg waters in the Bearing Sea and along the west coast of N.A. promote a +PNA pattern and we will probably see this begin to develop as we head into Sept.  However, I do remember a couple years back and even the year before, when there is ridging south of the Aleutian chain of islands it likes to promote a -PNA (SE Ridge).  A lot can change between now and later in Oct/Nov.  What may happen is, as the seasons change and the jet strengthens, this colder pocket may grow bigger and encompass the current +SST region south of the Aleutians.

 

I remember last year, the entire N PAC was torching warm and then all of a sudden, like a blink of the eye, it flipped cold and the rest was history.  We had a raging PAC last year.  We went from this in mid Sept:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.15.2016.gif

 

 

To this in 2 months...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.11.14.2016.gif

[Tom]

You can also argue that if we have a legit La Nina in place by Oct/Nov, this may also encourage a SE Ridge.  We may in fact have another active year across the northern tier of the CONUS.  However, unlike last year, riding in the southern Plains prob won't be as dominant due to the fighting +PNA signal I am seeing across the NE PAC.  At this stage of the game, it seems to me an interesting season is in the works as we roll into Autumn.

 

With another strong easterly burst expect towards the end of August, La-Nina-like conditions will continue to be enhanced...

 

[Tom]

The latest ECMWF Nino 3.4 plume suggesting an ENSO neutral state, although, there has been a trend in previous months showing more plumes below the 0C threshold.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Dang, now that is an impressive drop in the ENSO 3.4 region!  Heck, even ENSO 3 & 4 are falling off a cliff!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Surprised to see how much "warmer" the ECMWF is across the equatorial PAC for the DJF period...I personally think its likely wrong and will trend cooler over the coming months as it has been.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I don't really have much to add to that stuff. I think a west-based +PNA signal is probably going to be a good call through a good part of autumn at least. Seeing blocking re-emerge right over the middle of Canada isn't disappointing either.

 

I'd actually like to see ENSO at about a -.5 for DJF. I agree euro will probably be cooler next run.

[Tom]

The entire equatorial PAC is largely below -0.25C....with the ENSO 1.2 region bottoming out at -1.186....very impressive cooling across the PAC.  If this continues, we could easily have a moderate La Nina heading into Autumn.

[jaster220]

I don't really have much to add to that stuff. I think a west-based +PNA signal is probably going to be a good call through a good part of autumn at least. Seeing blocking re-emerge right over the middle of Canada isn't disappointing either.

 

I'd actually like to see ENSO at about a -.5 for DJF. I agree euro will probably be cooler next run.

 

...and I'm dreaming of ENSO @ nul to +0.5 (I understand though that you want/need it neg to pull winter chances down to your latitude a little ENSO tug-O-war could ensue..)

[Tom]

The substantial amount of cooling happening across the central PAC is amazing.  I don't recall seeing a drop in ENSO 3.4 like this in a very long time.  Have you???

 

It's almost down to -0.6C...

 

 

 

EPS suggesting another surge of strong easterlies as Nina-like atmosphere conditions will continue...

 

[OKwx2k4]

2010 Niña came on really fast like this right? Next round might take it closer to -1 for awhile.

[Tom]

A pretty large pool of sub-surface anomalies has developed over the central PAC...central-based Nina???  Haven't done much research on what effects it has for the U.S.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[OKwx2k4]

A pretty large pool of sub-surface anomalies has developed over the central PAC...central-based Nina??? Haven't done much research on what effects it has for the U.S.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

If I'm not mistaken, a CP (Central Pacific) Niña event of at or stronger than -0.5 but not colder than -0.8 would increase chances of troughing over the central US and lakes with ridging over the west coast and AK and into the higher latitudes. EP (Eastern Pacific) Niña of similar strength should put weak ridging over much of the southwestern and central plains through the winter with brief stagnant cold air intrusions if AO/NAO gets coupled well enough to block cold into the SE and Eastern US.

 

Hopefully that was semi-informative.

 

If this is a central to east propagating La Niña event then we have a different set of rules entirely.

[Tom]

Great article discussing many points that have been made on here regarding the current ENSO state:

 

https://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08/is-2017-18-la-nina-on-table.html

[OKwx2k4]

Great article discussing many points that have been made on here regarding the current ENSO state:

 

https://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08/is-2017-18-la-nina-on-table.html

Good stuff in there.

[jaster220]

Great article discussing many points that have been made on here regarding the current ENSO state:

 

https://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08/is-2017-18-la-nina-on-table.html

 

 

"At this point in time, most of the climate models have a La Nada event. The CFSv2 has a weak to  moderate La Nina. It is an east/central based event which is more favourable for a cold winter {midwest/east} when contrasted with a modoki event."

 

We gonna be shiverin' after these past two mild ones! I mean, come on I was downtown Chicago in Feb and it was 70F! Even a normal Feb high temp accompanied by the traditional winter windiness would be a brutal contrast to what we've had lately.

[Niko]

We gonna be shiverin' after these past two mild ones! I mean, come on I was downtown Chicago in Feb and it was 70F! Even a normal Feb high temp accompanied by the traditional winter windiness would be a brutal contrast to what we've had lately.

Cant wait to be shivered. Its about d**n time we all start shivering this Winter and start feeling what a true Winter should be like.

[jaster220]

Cant wait to be shivered. Its about d**n time we all start shivering this Winter and start feeling what a true Winter should be like.

 

I'm a survivor of the Jan '94 "Big Freeze" across northern parts of Michigan. After that, I'm careful what I wish for .  Back then my commute was the opposite of today. I lived 3 miles from the lakeshore and drove 50 miles inland. Leaving my place at a (relatively) balmy -25 and getting to work where it was -35 or -40 for multiple days was no fun. No, no, no, not fun at all (shakes head). Almost 2 months of the most brutal temps up to -57F froze pipes of all sort (water, sewer, etc) up to 10 ft under ground! And that was with feet of snow cover!

[Niko]

I'm a survivor of the Jan '94 "Big Freeze" across northern parts of Michigan. After that, I'm careful what I wish for .  Back then my commute was the opposite of today. I lived 3 miles from the lakeshore and drove 50 miles inland. Leaving my place at a (relatively) balmy -25 and getting to work where it was -35 or -40 for multiple days was no fun. No, no, no, not fun at all (shakes head). Almost 2 months of the most brutal temps up to -57F froze pipes of all sort (water, sewer, etc) up to 10 ft under ground! And that was with feet of snow cover!

Dang, that sounds like severe with life threatened conditions. That would be too extreme for me.

[jaster220]

Dang, that sounds like severe with life threatened conditions. That would be too extreme for me.

 

It was for me too, that's why you'll never see me posting that I'm wishing for extreme cold   That was before cell phones were common, so a car failure along a desolate stretch of highway would not have been fun. I was fortunate that didn't happen but my heater on my little 4-cyl had an issue and I mostly had no heat in the mornings. I had it easy though, compared to my co-workers who didn't live close to the balmy lake Michigan, they had true hardships as they had to keep faucets running so their water pipes didn't freeze. Then their drains froze solid so they had to connect a hose and run it out the door. I think they had to shower at a hotel or work or  some place that still had working drains. I mean I like winter and had (3) sleds up there but that was just too darn cold to enjoy   Got a ton of LES though, only time I've scored a foot with temps below -5F lol

[Niko]

It was for me too, that's why you'll never see me posting that I'm wishing for extreme cold   That was before cell phones were common, so a car failure along a desolate stretch of highway would not have been fun. I was fortunate that didn't happen but my heater on my little 4-cyl had an issue and I mostly had no heat in the mornings. I had it easy though, compared to my co-workers who didn't live close to the balmy lake Michigan, they had true hardships as they had to keep faucets running so their water pipes didn't freeze. Then their drains froze solid so they had to connect a hose and run it out the door. I think they had to shower at a hotel or work or  some place that still had working drains. I mean I like winter and had (3) sleds up there but that was just too darn cold to enjoy   Got a ton of LES though, only time I've scored a foot with temps below -5F lol

That must have been a beautiful scene I bet, probably most likely a deep powdery snow.

[Tom]

CFSv2 continues the trend of a stronger Nina and approaching -1.0C for boreal Winter....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd4.gif

[Thunder98]

CFSv2 continues the trend of a stronger Nina and approaching -1.0C for boreal Winter....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd4.gif

 

What is the analogs for this Winter? (1998-2000), (2007-2008), (2008-2009), (2010-2011), and (2013-2014)?

[Tom]

What is the analogs for this Winter? (1998-2000), (2007-2008), (2008-2009), (2010-2011), and (2013-2014)?

One of the more observational analogs we have been seeing since the middle of Summer are '76 as well.

 

Edit: Not only has '76 been a good anolog this summer for the GL's region, but it's been spread around to parts of the south and desert SW.

[Niko]

What is the analogs for this Winter? (1998-2000), (2007-2008), (2008-2009), (2010-2011), and (2013-2014)?

I'm hoping for 13-14"

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty much that list in a nutshell. 00-01 is favored in my opinion over both 98-99 and 99-00 simply due to solar cycle timing and distance from the super Niño of 97-98 and the distance of this season from the 15-16 super Niño event.

 

In my opinion it's a draw between two very different years right now with 2000 and 2008 weighted 2x, all other years (including the mention of the atmospheric likeness to 1976) are weighted 1x. Year marked for weakest analog there would be 2007-08 but for now it's still in the mix.

[Tom]

Another strong easterly burst will be evolving this week creating a favorable environment for tapping into the large cool pool of subsurface waters across the equatorial PAC.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I think by end of Sept, we will be seeing a dominating Nina pattern over the central/eastern PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

[Tom]

@ Jaster, CFSv2 took another step down towards -1.3C by January and continues the idea of a stronger Nina.  Latest ENSO weekly update shows a pocket of -4C subsurface waters.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, CFSv2 took another step down towards -1.3C by January and continues the idea of a stronger Nina.  Latest ENSO weekly update shows a pocket of -4C subsurface waters.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Now that I'm fine with a solid Nina I guess that's good news Tom. I may go out on a limb yet, though it won't be for our backyards

[OKwx2k4]

I read that we have an official month with a -PDO now. That complicates things a bit.