Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Now that I'm fine with a solid Nina I guess that's good news Tom. I may go out on a limb yet, though it won't be for our backyardsDepends on how much that ridge will want to fight back this year. Seeing signs it may be something to deal with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 ENSO 3.4 & 3 regions are cooling off and setting new lows...looking more like a central-based Nina at the moment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm hoping for 13-14" Not me! Absolutely horrible snow here, and I don't mean horribly high. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 Not me! Absolutely horrible snow here, and I don't mean horribly high. Sadly (since we share a forum) what works for you guys fails for us and vice-versa. Rare will be the season that both ends of this wide forum region has a banner winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 Sadly (since we share a forum) what works for you guys fails for us and vice-versa. Rare will be the season that both ends of this wide forum region has a banner winter.2000-2001 says hello How was 2003-04 over there? Awesome here, though it ended way early. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 6, 2017 Report Share Posted September 6, 2017 2000-2001 says hello How was 2003-04 over there? Awesome here, though it ended way early. A decent storm right at Christmas (always unique and scores a lot of bonus points in my book) and one solid 10" storm in end of Jan I think it was. Those two events were winter, not the best of seasons in my book. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 2000-2001 says hello With technically a second year "CP based" Niña this year and clear forcing west of the dateline, 2000 is looking stronger. One of the craziest weather Decembers in my area. Cold icy and snowy for a solid month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 With technically a second year "CP based" Niña this year and clear forcing west of the dateline, 2000 is looking stronger. One of the craziest weather Decembers in my area. Cold icy and snowy for a solid month.CFSv2 leading the pack of all the global models since early summer on the idea of a La Niña. Latest ECMWF monthlies finally caught onto the Nina for Winter. I think we see a central based Nina which will bode better for you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 How strong will this likely La Nina be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 How strong will this likely La Nina be?Best guess at this juncture I'm thinking it maxes out at -1.2C...I could see it peak above this point but not jumping on it just yet. Overall, a mod Nina is in the cards. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2017 Huge blob of cold waters growing and lurking just below the surface...notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works. CFSv2 for the win??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2017 ENSO regions 3.4, 3 & 4 all reading weak Nina conditions...ENSO 3.4 tanking towards -0.9C...this cooling is happening rather quick and was not forecasted just about a month or so ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Squarely puts 2000-01 and 2010-11 back in good spots on an analog list imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Squarely puts 2000-01 and 2010-11 back in good spots on an analog list imo.For me that'd be a choice tween an awesome winter that was only 6 wks in duration, or a winter that didn't really get legs until GHD. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Ya, with these easterly bursts coming over the next 2 weeks I see no reason for a moderate Nina...kuddos to the CFSv2! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 It's official, CPC has issued a La Nina Watch: 55-60% likelihood http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure07.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 It's official, CPC has issued a La Nina Watch: 55-60% likelihood http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure07.gif Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 15, 2017 Report Share Posted September 15, 2017 "notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works." So, how's a central help vs an east biased? You're much more studied in these things Than myself Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2017 "notice the placement of the coldest anomalies between 160W-120W suggesting a central-based Nina is in the works." So, how's a central help vs an east biased? You're much more studied in these things Than myselfFrom the research I have done, a central based Niña doesn't have much different impacts compared to a east based Niña. On the flip side, when your talking about central or east based Niño events there is a big difference. I think the strength of the Niña will play a key role and dominate the northern stream. I did read that a central based Niña supports a +NAO so we'll have to see how that plays out. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2017 Boy, the ECMWF was really bad trying to figure out the Nina. Look at the last 3 month period and where it is trending. CFSv2 by far was the better model out of them all. I knew it would trend cooler this month. June... July... Aug... Sept...(current period) The flip to cooler is about as bad as the JMA from previous run for OND... Last month... Current run... The Euro had no clue a Nina was coming last month for boreal Winter... August run... vs...Sept (current run) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 15, 2017 Report Share Posted September 15, 2017 The Euro had no clue a Nina was coming last month for boreal Winter... Yeah, everything's got it's strengths and weaknesses, and you've done a great job of illustrating the mighty Euro's Achilles Heel - Season to bi-annual range stuff. Nice work tracking this stuff bud! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 17, 2017 Report Share Posted September 17, 2017 Prepared by Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP: Lots of useful information http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Wow, check out this gigantic blob of cold waters lurking just beneath the surface of the equatorial PAC...approaching -4C/-5C! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Wow, check out this gigantic blob of cold waters lurking just beneath the surface of the equatorial PAC...approaching -4C/-5C! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Yeah, in that winter vid I posted, it's noted that the CFSv2 is the model really dragging the avg down on the NMME graphs, but it may just be schooling the other models! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Looks like they're a little more bullish on a Nina (as of 9-14): Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Looks like they're a little more bullish on a Nina (as of 9-14): 20171002 ENSO chart from 9-14.PNGLiking the looks of it so far. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 I know it looks crazy cold but I'm still hanging around the -0.8 mark at best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 I know it looks crazy cold but I'm still hanging around the -0.8 mark at best. And tbh, 2013-14 was neutral and we in SMI have some of our best winters with a La Nada, so I'm only "into" any stronger Nina as a means to secure a wetter season ala 07-08 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Current status: https://www.climate.gov/enso Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 And tbh, 2013-14 was neutral and we in SMI have some of our best winters with a La Nada, so I'm only "into" any stronger Nina as a means to secure a wetter season ala 07-08In most mod-major Niña events (2010 being an awesome exception) I get dry and warm so yes, you would be cool and wet and all of my snow stays out west of I-44 until late spring. That's the worst case scenario possible if you ask me. If you erase 2 major events from 2010-11, it really would have been an average winter for me. The atmosphere just worked at a time it really wasn't supposed to. A "perfect storm" of events I guess. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 Per BAMwx Heading down into Nina territory again Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 FYI from Hoosier @ Amwx: Just a note... there's a new data set for ONI calculations, and the change makes it so that the anomalies are warmer than the previous data... i.e., the 2015-16 super El Nino now has a "warmer" peak trimonthly of +2.6 (compared to +2.3 before). This means that it's going to be more unlikely to have this upcoming Nina peak at moderate via ONI, and depending on how things develop, it might even struggle to get into weak territory for the required 5 consecutive tri-month overlap period. When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data??I saved as much data as I could find back in 2007 and 2008, then printed as much of it as I could find and put it in binders. It's easier to move the goalposts than to learn to kick better. Lol. Sad but true. Sadly the last 10 years, in my opinion, we've seen a lot of things like that. I remember when forecasters actually forecasted and reasoned a little bit (right or wrong) rather than riding a model worse than I do. Now they have an excuse. ("We were wrong, BUT 'The model said...'") Lol. Just an overshare of an opinion but that's what stuff like that makes me think about. I should have went into climatology out of high school. I respect honest research too much to compromise it's integrity. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 When I read that a few days back, I couldn't help but think that "they moved the goalposts!" Kind of like changing the formula for how an MLB player's batting avg is calculated if you ask me. What do you do with historical data?? Why did they changed ONI format again? Seems kind of weird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 I ask too many questions to believe everything they say anymore. Like how can you adjust global temps upward since 1998 but still contend that a Nino of (officially, for now at least) the exact same strength in 2015-16 is higher relative to average? Stuff like that cannot make sense to me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Why did they changed ONI format again? Seems kind of weirdVery good question, and it does make you wonder about their real motives? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Very good question, and it does make you wonder about their real motives?This x100. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Expert opinion in agreement for a weak La Nina development. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Monster subs-surface cold anomalies will be making a re-appearance as upwelling will kick start back up again from easterlies... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Expert opinion in agreement for a weak La Nina development. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html Perhaps, but not overwhelmingly so. Key takeaways: In summary:Sea surface temperatures in eastern tropical Pacific have recently cooled, approaching La Niña levels, while atmospheric patterns have largely remained ENSO-neutral;Models surveyed and expert opinion suggest that weak La Niña conditions may develop, with about 50-55% probability, in the final quarter of 2017;If La Niña conditions do develop before the end of 2017, they are likely to be weak, and would likely return to ENSO-neural in the first quarter of 2018;Continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is also a plausible scenario, with 45-50% likelihood;Emergence of El Niño can be practically ruled out. Sounding more La Nida-ish every update! Perfect if you ask me. Split the uprights ftw!! -QBO with "La Nida" ENSO: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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