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2017 ENSO Discussion


Tom

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CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017030818/cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_3.png

 

What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.

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What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.

I'm not sure what the ENSO status was back in Spring '08.  Check that, just dug up the raw #'s...looks like back then it was still a weak Nina (-0.9) on avg during March-May.

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The latest March run of the JAMSTEC is indicating a bit stronger Nino by Summer/Fall 2017.

 

Summer SST's...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

Autumn SST's...

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

Wild run showing a strong Nino for later this year...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2017.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1mar2017.gif

 

 

FWIW, the last 3 runs have steadily increased the NINO's intensity...

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70% of ECMWF ensembles suggest a mod/strong NINO by Sept...

 

C7hBoVRU8AEWoJe.jpg

 

I would like to see a moderate in autumn turn into a weak during next winter. I also like to day dream..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If that's the case, then, a really warm winter of 2017-18 will be on the way.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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SCRIPPS ENSO forecast for the Summer months...this model is notorious for running colder than other models.  I remember this time last year it was forecasting a super Nina for last Winter.

 

 

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-06.jpg

 

Next Fall...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-09.jpg

 

 

Next Winter...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-12.jpg

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That's sad to see things going that way. We could really use a better winter here next year. Ski hills, bars, snowmobiling, etc are all taking a beating the last two years over winter. I didn't think we'd get three bad ones in a row.

 

Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc.

 

Oh good, there's some hope. I was looking over a university page, I forget which one, and they said neutral was the best snow for Chicago area historically.

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CanSIPS models suggesting a weak Nino this summer which isn't much of a surprise as most models are thinking the same.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_3.png

 

 

Looking out farther, a basin-wide Nino develops, but the warmest waters are central-based.  This will be the key to winter weather fans next year as the new LRC develops in Oct/Nov.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_8.png

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Nobody knows what this Summer will bring. Mother nature will do what eva it wants. Last year the models were advertising more snow and colder temps and we ended up with a mild Winter. That goes ta show ya! Peace Ya'll. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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spotlesssun_slow.gif

 

Sorry if it's too huge of an image, pretty interesting stuff, no sun spots.

This year has been abnormally low in sun spot activity, except for what has erupted recently.  It'll be interesting what happens throughout this year.

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Interesting, the subsurface anomalies in the central PAC are growing colder while the eastern PAC waters are growing warmer...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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CPC's SST analogs see the El Nino coming on in the Summer, but then backing off heading towards the Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/casst_anom.2.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/casst_anom.3.gif

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Scripps udpated April run hasn't changed much and is running colder than the rest of the models...

 

Summer...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-06.jpg

 

 

Autumn...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-09.jpg

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NMME's thinking for the summer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_2.png

 

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_5.png

 

 

November...the majority of the models suggest a central-based Nino stretching almost basin wide...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_ssta_noice_global_7.png

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New Euro seasonal Nino Plume is showing more spread and less members in the strong category....

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls17-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-PLkAEs.png

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It's wild to see the SOI rise dramatically over the 30-day base state...

 

Latest SouthernLatest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 10 Apr 2017

Average for last 30 days 3.03

Average for last 90 days -1.33

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 19.25
 

 

 

 

Response, ENSO 1.2 falling off a cliff!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png

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The new JAMSTEC model came in and still suggesting a Modiki El Nino developing late summer into the Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1apr2017.gif

 

However, it has ticked up the warmth of the waters.  Getting close to Super Nino status during next Winter.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif

 

 

Summer months...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1apr2017.gif

 

It is the warmest running climate model so we see how this all plays out in the end.

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Euro seasonal showing a central-based Nino on average during the summer...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-pSkqsd.png

 

 

 

Early Autumn in retrogrades farther west and a bit warmer...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-TTJXm2.png

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I'd imagine with the SOI crash currently in the -30's over the last few days, we will see some jump to the ENSO warming.  However, current anomalies are not all that impressive.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

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The new JMA seasonal has a feeble El Nino growing in the PAC...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201704.D1100_gls.png

 

 

July....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201704.D1100_gls.png

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CFSv2 now out to October and sure looks like the Euro in terms of placement of the warmest waters in the central PAC...meanwhile, over in the N PAC waters are cold near Hawaii. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif

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