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January 24th/25th Possible Winter Storm Probable Nebraska Screwjob


clintbeed1993

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06Z Gfs even further N-- but then again we all knew that beforehand.

DSM least snowiest winter season is 8.3"--- its well on it's way with a whopping 3.9" thus far and only .1 in JAN.snku_acc.us_nc.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The MSP discussion is flying a rather odd flag this evening.... "Given the potency of this system and the past analogs, this storm will likely be capable of producing 6+" of snowfall." I am not exactly sure what they see, but I like the optimism. (?) Despite the fact that there is not much model guidance I have seen to support this.

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CPC is no joke the "kiss of death" when forecasting 4+ days out....sheesh...!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

And yet the northeast scores again with the storm that gives us rain! You can't make this stuff up.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Mostly rain there as well it looks like too

Was going by that CPC map..I feel much better thanks!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just noticed something, this map would likely be snow for quite a lot of IA, but eurowx is flagging it as rain because surface temps are 33-34, while temps at 925, 850 and 500 are all below zero(celsius). That could explain some of the funky p-type calls in marginal temp events.

 

ecmwf_surface_108_nc.jpg

 

EDIT: Here's what it came up with snow-wise 

 

ecmwf_runsnowgrid_132_nc.jpg

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Yeah-- the last few years-- DSM area largest snowfall events have been with temp 33F-- not below 32F until after the event. But that was with a much colder grounds temps,, this Seattle Slew crap we have is really warming temps.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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