January 24th/25th Possible Winter Storm Probable Nebraska Screwjob

[NEJeremy]

Winter storm watches have been issued from southern SoDak/northern Nebraska on to the east.

[St Paul Storm]

S MN gonna do well with this one. Looking for 2-4" here in the TC. MPX continues to talk rain/snow mix. Being on the northern fringe I'm not sure I buy that but we'll see.

 

18z NAM came north.

[james1976]

Ive been way busy last few days but delighted to see im in a winter storm watch for 4-7"!! Should have time to track this storm a bit more now

[james1976]

Surprised this didnt become a N Dakota special haha

[gosaints]

Surprised this didnt become a N Dakota special haha

Nice dynamics with this system

[gosaints]

GFS still the warmest furthest north so far.  

[St Paul Storm]

Nice dynamics with this system

Yep nice jet streak in the area and a good deal of moisture. Ratios are going to be lower than normal for January, but this this storm should be a nice hit for some.

[james1976]

Anyone with a snow map from 0z GFS?  Thanks

[james1976]

Dead in here!

[Grizzcoat]

I'll post the Euro when it comes out in just over an hour.

[Snowlover76]

Dead in here!

No weather related reasons to post.

[james1976]

No weather related reasons to post.

But you just posted in a storm thread........

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

The GFS is like WAY north compared to the Euro and Euro Control--

 

GFS 06Z

 

Euro Control-

[Madtown]

Wow that euro control would be a pleasant suprise!

[Snowlover76]

I'm gonna go with the Euro.

[Bryan1117]

Heading up to Sioux Falls today and Sioux City tomorrow for work. If I can't see snow back home, at least I can see it up north.

 

Looks like the first part of my drive back home to Omaha tomorrow afternoon will be kind of interesting to say the least.

 

Bring it on!

[Tom]

Felt nice to take a break from the computer yesterday.  I swear, it seems like I'm on it 24/7 with work and the weather.

 

12z NAM is juicy for N NE...any slight shifts south like the Euro is showing could be big for those posters in NE/IA.

 

 

[Tom]

Heading up to Sioux Falls today and Sioux City tomorrow for work. If I can't see snow back home, at least I can see it up north.

 

Looks like the first part of my drive back home to Omaha tomorrow afternoon will be kind of interesting to say the least.

 

Bring it on!

NAM & Euro love Sioux Falls...this compact little system should have a large defo band associated with it.

[gosaints]

Looks like the GFS may jump a little south to come more in line with the other models

[Tom]

12z GFS not budging and still likes SD to MSP...

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Quite a bit weaker too through hr 42.

[Tom]

GFS/EURO track is nearly the same but it seems the Euro has a tightly wrapped storm and has colder air associated with it closer to the low.

[gosaints]

Quite a bit weaker too through hr 42.

Ya lots weaker.  Like 6 mb.  Long duration event though.

[gosaints]

GFS/EURO track is nearly the same but it seems the Euro has a tightly wrapped storm and has colder air associated with it closer to the low.

Ya hope the EURO scores the COUP as far as dynamics go

[St Paul Storm]

Ya lots weaker.  Like 6 mb.  Long duration event though.

You'll hit warning criteria down there. Don't see any reason why MPX would shift the watch a few counties north though like they were considering this morning.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017012312/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Snowlover76]

Sweet. I might break 6" for the season

[GDR]

I might top 2.5

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012312/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_6.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012312/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_7.png

[Madtown]

Looks like a fun little storm!

[Tom]

12z Euro came in a touch colder for IA/WI...0C 850 line right along the "cheddar curtain"...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012312/ecmwf_T850_us_3.png

[james1976]

GGEM with a 12" lollipop one county away from me.

[Madtown]

Colder yes please

[james1976]

Euro suck?

[jaster220]

But you just posted in a storm thread........

 

At least we've got something to lurk about..like when you're a year too young to get in the corner bar..smoking outside on the street corner is the next best thing..

[bud2380]

[Tom]

It looks like the 12z Euro expanded the 6"+ from 00z run to SE MN/SE WI and it shifted the 2" line farther south into N IL...lol...baby steps...ha!

[james1976]

I like that run. Looks closer to GGEM

[james1976]

Both Euro and GGEM 8+ for me