January 30th-31st Clipper

[gosaints]

A little more juice on the 12z GFS run...might even be some warning snows up near GRB/DTX...

The canadian is knocking on you door....

[Tom]

The canadian is knocking on you door....

Really?  Sweet...I'm not asking for much but enough to cover up the grass...

[gosaints]

Really? Sweet...I'm not asking for much but enough to cover up the grass...

Ya you will like it. Loves southern wi and even northern ohio it looks like

[Tom]

12z GGEM...a shift south but on it's own ATM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012812/gem_asnow_ncus_14.png

[Tom]

There has been a slight (25-50mi) shift south among the GEFS members over the past 24 hours in MN/WI...

 

Mean track is from Duluth/GRB towards Saginaw, MI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012812/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012812/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

[Tom]

12z Euro looks similar to the GGEM, a tad farther south compared to the GFS...

[Tony]

Maybe get an inch or two if we are lucky. Better than zippo at this point

[Niko]

I am liking my snow chances. Looks like January might end up adding some snow in the snow gauge before leaving. So far, 4.8" for the month of January, so maybe topping off at near normal levels or even above. We will see. All depends how much snow I receive.

[Tom]

I am liking my snow chances. Looks like January might end up adding some snow in the snow gauge before leaving. So far, 4.8" for the month of January, so maybe topping off at near normal levels or even above. We will see. All depends how much snow I receive.

Your looking good for advisory snows....

 

18z GFS...

[Niko]

Your looking good for advisory snows....

 

18z GFS...

Based on the map above me, it looks like a 3-6inch snowfall for me. Not bad for a clipper type system.

 

Btw: I am surprised that your area will escape this clipper. I figure it would be further south, clipping you with some snow, at least.

[jaster220]

Your looking good for advisory snows....

 

18z GFS...

Seems like 6z was showing the most. Guessing it included Sundays wave. All looks good n thx for the maps!!

 

If I have an issue with the GFS it'd be the low totals for SWMI. With angle of fetch and low baro this should be almost ideal here for lk enhancement like the GEM has. All smiles if this verifies

[jaster220]

Your looking good for advisory snows....

 

18z GFS...

Warning amounts each side of MI is truly baffling. We've got the lakes to boost totals unlike MN & WI

[jaster220]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Imagine that! A strengthening storm in the GL's

[jaster220]

Italy possibly set a global record with 100" in one day! Yep, historic winter's happening, just nowhere near the Midwest..

 

http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/03/11/orig-italy-record-snow-fall-mclaughlin.cnn

[Tony]

I'm pretty sure that is a couple years old

[jaster220]

I'm pretty sure that is a couple years old

Yep! 2015....Guess I better look closer at dates lol

[Tony]

Still unbelievable to have that much snow in less than a day. Only if.

[Niko]

Italy possibly set a global record with 100" in one day! Yep, historic winter's happening, just nowhere near the Midwest..

 

http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/03/11/orig-italy-record-snow-fall-mclaughlin.cnn

Crazy pics. Simply insane amounts of snow.

[jaster220]

Crazy pics. Simply insane amounts of snow.

Until this year, I didn't know Italy south of the Alps got cold in winter. I pictured it a warm peninsula like Florida!

[Niko]

Until this year, I didn't know Italy south of the Alps got cold in winter. I pictured it a warm peninsula like Florida!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capracotta

 

 

Exactly, you would think, right. Capracotta, Italy is a high elevated location.

[gosaints]

Gfs trending towards more of a weak turd

[Tom]

12z GFS...a bit weaker for MI but still a nice hit from a clipper...

[Niko]

I will gladly accept 3-5inches from this clipper.

[jaster220]

12z GFS...a bit weaker for MI but still a nice hit from a clipper...

 

Apparently none of WFO's upstream are buying it's heavier totals there? Zero watches anywhere. At least the portrayal of highest amounts over SWMI looks better. Finally picking up on a boost from the lake.

 

I will gladly accept 3-5inches from this clipper.

Yeah, especially this month. And here she comes!

 

 

 

[Niko]

Apparently none of WFO's upstream are buying it's heavier totals there? Zero watches anywhere. At least the portrayal of highest amounts over SWMI looks better. Finally picking up on a boost from the lake.

 

Yeah, especially this month. And here she comes!

 

 

r03_ICast.gif

Look @ that moisture making a B-line towards MI...bring it on suga. That looks like mod-Hvy snow.

[jaster220]

Look @ that moisture making a B-line towards MI...bring it on suga. That looks like mod-Hvy snow.

Unfortunately, latest trends take the surface low right over SWMI. NOT GOOD! At least I got a few whiteouts today so w/e

[jaster220]

Look @ that moisture making a B-line towards MI...bring it on suga. That looks like mod-Hvy snow.

 

Suga???

 

K, things are looking up again, or at least not down. GRR's being proactive and already has headlines flying for us over here. WooHoo! Some 4-6" shading right around Marshall, can't wait!

 

 

 

What's DTX's thoughts for Macomb?

[Niko]

Suga???

 

K, things are looking up again, or at least not down. GRR's being proactive and already has headlines flying for us over here. What's DTX's thoughts for Macomb?

Its a  NY thing we usually pop out .

 

This clipper is looking mighty good. I am in for 2-4inches with possible 5" amounts at spots. Also, once it passes, another inch or 2 from LES possible for Tuesday afternoon before everything ends late Tuesday. Cold air remains in place for the remainder of the week, so the snow aint going nowhere anytime soon.

 

Btw: Do I sense a storm by Sunday.??!! My forecast has me for cloudy skies and a chance for snow.

[Tom]

12z GFS...looking good for WI/MI posters...finally, the snow hole on the north side of MSP will get covered....

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201701/nsm_depth_2017013005_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

 

[jaster220]

Its a  NY thing we usually pop out .

 

This clipper is looking mighty good. I am in for 2-4inches with possible 5" amounts at spots. Also, once it passes, another inch or 2 from LES possible for Tuesday afternoon before everything ends late Tuesday. Cold air remains in place for the remainder of the week, so the snow aint going nowhere anytime soon.

 

Btw: Do I sense a storm by Sunday.??!! My forecast has me for cloudy skies and a chance for snow.

 

Nice to all of what you wrote. Sunday could "sneak-up" on SEMI, that's for sure. My old school rules-of-thumb for gaging my odds on a SEMI storm was to look for temps of 25-32º, then follow the precip trends as the target day approached. Got fingers crossed.

[jaster220]

12z GFS...looking good for WI/MI posters...finally, the snow hole on the north side of MSP will get covered....

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201701/nsm_depth_2017013005_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

Sweet Tom. Surprised no WSWatches up that way tbh. Huh??  Did the NAM join the party, or is it still on it's own?

[Tom]

Sweet Tom. Surprised no WSWatches up that way tbh. Huh??  Did the NAM join the party, or is it still on it's own?

Not as juiced as the GFS and snow band is a little thinner...

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017013012/042/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

Not as juiced as the GFS and snow band is a little thinner...

Idk, looks pretty good for a clipper (after all, she said, it's a clipper)

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017013012/042/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

It's a clipper, so not 100% dud-proof, but looks solid. Just nice to have a synoptic event and not be on the outside looking in..

[Niko]

Idk what ta say, but, this is one good strong, energetic clipper coming to MI. For a clipper type system, wow. Very impressive.

[Tom]

Idk, looks pretty good for a clipper (after all, she said, it's a clipper)

 

 

It's a clipper, so not 100% dud-proof, but looks solid. Just nice to have a synoptic event and not be on the outside looking in..

Absolutely, not bad for a clipper...here is a close up on the GFS...looking at radar imagery, looks like its ripping in N MN

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017013012/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

GFS has me in the 3-6inch range. Not bad for a clipper. Definitely advisory levels.

[Niko]

@ Jaster,

 

Looking good for your area in Marshall..... From TWC:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. * LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IMPACTS... * ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT. * COMMUTE TIMES ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER. &&

 

[jaster220]

GFS has me in the 3-6inch range. Not bad for a clipper. Definitely advisory levels.

 

 

 

Yep, NAM Is Grinchy but GFS is our buddy on this one Niko! While not the strengthening storm once progg'd, it's still an ~29.5" SLP and that should help with enhancement off Lk. Michigan on the backside. I wouldn't be surprised to see some jackpot lollies by the time this is over. The lower baro and not too strong winds are great ingredients and this f'cast image has a nice streamer making a bee-line for mby   Actually both do.

 

 

 

[Niko]

20170130 WPC Low Trks.JPG

 

Yep, NAM Is Grinchy but GFS is our buddy on this one Niko! While not the strengthening storm once progg'd, it's still an ~29.5" SLP and that should help with enhancement off Lk. Michigan on the backside. I wouldn't be surprised to see some jackpot lollies by the time this is over. The lower baro and not too strong winds are great ingredients and this f'cast image has a nice streamer making a bee-line for mby   Actually both do.

 

20170130 I-cast GL's map 7am 1-31.gif

20170130 I-cast GL's map 7pm 1-31.gif

Impressive indeed. I am surprised that NOAA does not have me in the WAA advisory level yet. Hopefully by this afternoon they will.