February 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

As we approach the last month of meteorological Winter, what will Mother Nature have in store for us???  Will this be a back loaded winter in terms of snow for those who have endured a snow drought?  How cold and potentially snowy will it get this month??  I believe we are in for some surprises...and I do think there will be some happy campers on here!

 

 

Latest CFSv2 daily run...

 

700mb pattern....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170126.201702.gif

 

 

Trends in temps and precip....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201702.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201702.gif

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

Trends in temps and precip....

 

Certainly looks primed!

[Tom]

This looks promising...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[hlcater]

20" February to make up for the no show of a January? 

[jaster220]

This looks promising...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Yep - saw those earlier but couldn't post. Wk2 best look of the winter imho

[Niko]

February is looking like it will be rocking. More active and much colder. The big one is just around the corner. We just need everything to fall in place. Thank goodness we have the cold air available. That's key to everything.

[FV-Mike]

interesting info from Skilling on the snow drought

 

 

[jaster220]

Feb 1900 redux. Been 117 yrs, we're due..

[Niko]

Its gonna be a fun February in terms of tracking storms. My forecast is already showing signs of snows down the road. Hope they verify though.

[Tom]

Advisory snows creeping their way towards NE peeps Thu/Fri...

 

 

[Andrew NE]

Advisory snows creeping their way towards NE peeps Thu/Fri...

I hope the trends continue, not likely to have anything very robust in the future, but Ill take any snow!

[jaster220]

Its gonna be a fun February in terms of tracking storms. My forecast is already showing signs of snows down the road. Hope they verify though.

We've seen bigger runs in 2014, but I'd take these in a heartbeat this year!

 

 

[Niko]

We've seen bigger runs in 2014, but I'd take these in a heartbeat this year!

 

europost_1604_0_86471300_1485802903.jpggfs.gif

I'd take this map and keep running. Looks awesome.

[Tom]

00z NAM showing the wave for Thu/Fri in NE at the end of its run...

[Andrew NE]

00z GFS has a nice system in the NE panhandle and then just shears out to nothing. Have seen this look too many times. Hope it's just a bad run and can come back.

[Tom]

CPC has adjusted Feb to a MUCH warmer look...Spring coming early???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

[Money]

GFS for Sunday:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017020100/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[westMJim]

Here at my house I received 1.5" of new snow last night and now have 6.25" OTG to start February with, This is from my January observations post.

January 2017 is now history. This past month ended up at +4.6° the average high in GR was 34.1° and the average low was 23.9° GRR recorded 3.51” of precipitation (2.09” is ave) snow fall totaled 14.8” (20.8” is average) the warmest day was 61° on the 21^st and the coldest was +2° on the 6^th.  The biggest snow fall was only 3.3” on the 31^st the deepest snow on the ground was 4” on the 10^th and 31^st. Only 8 days had 1” or more of snow on the ground and 20 days has no snow at all reported.   Also of note it now has not officially below 0° since February 28^th 2015.  

[Niko]

Looks like it snowed again late last night. My street was snow covered. Looks like I received an extra 0.5".

 

Its  Winter wonderland outside.

[Tom]

GEFS are tanking the AO and trending towards the ideas for February, now if we can get the NAO to play ball a bit more it would be even better.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

Both EURO/GFS MJO showing a ride around the warmer phases up until the 10th/11th of the month.  If the AO and NAO play ball, it would argue colder by mid month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[jaster220]

Looks like it snowed again late last night. My street was snow covered. Looks like I received an extra 0.5".

 

Its  Winter wonderland outside.

 

Same here. Nice LES topper. Temps actually rose overnight to 34F then fell to 23F about sunrise. Coaster ride all the way around this winter

 

Here at my house I received 1.5" of new snow last night and now have 6.25" OTG to start February with, This is from my January observations post.

January 2017 is now history. This past month ended up at +4.6° the average high in GR was 34.1° and the average low was 23.9° GRR recorded 3.51” of precipitation (2.09” is ave) snow fall totaled 14.8” (20.8” is average) the warmest day was 61° on the 21^st and the coldest was +2° on the 6^th.  The biggest snow fall was only 3.3” on the 31^st the deepest snow on the ground was 4” on the 10^th and 31^st. Only 8 days had 1” or more of snow on the ground and 20 days has no snow at all reported.   Also of note it now has not officially below 0° since February 28^th 2015.  

 

Nice stats summary WMJim. January finished so strongly, I not only made double digits, I finished with 14.5" and very narrowly missed beating GR which prolly never happens!!   I have a hard time finding data averages specific to Marshall, all the main websites tend to use the nearest larger station KBTL which for snowfall is totally off. BC will avg 10-12" more per season via LES due to the airport being on the NW side of town and about 12 miles closer to the Lake. I've not seen an accurate graph for KRMY proper for snowfall broken down by the month.

[jaster220]

GFS for Sunday:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017020100/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Huh?? Tease run or what??

[Snowshoe]

Welcome back winter!!! Stick around for a while please!

[jaster220]

@ pic /\

 

Sweet! Hopefully sticks around a good 6 weeks or more, since it took most of January off

 

One thing that's been a constant this winter is over-shooting daily high temps

 

Today for instance, GRR had KRMY at the freezing mark so I figured 34F most likely..WRONG!! Shoots up to 37

[Niko]

@ pic /\

 

Sweet! Hopefully sticks around a good 6 weeks or more, since it took most of January off

 

One thing that's been a constant this winter is over-shooting daily high temps

 

Today for instance, GRR had KRMY at the freezing mark so I figured 34F most likely..WRONG!! Shoots up to 37

We have ta make up for the loss of January, so, yes, winter till mid March Pls.

[jaster220]

GFS/EURO continue to be night and day...

Basically Euro for MI is 2 ft and GFS is 2 flakes? Nope, not much spread

[Niko]

Basically Euro for MI is 2 ft and GFS is 2 flakes? Nope, not much spread

[jaster220]

OOMG!

 

Another squall just dumped 1" in 30 mins here in Marshall. Practically a whiteout in progress!

[Niko]

OOMG!

 

Another squall just dumped 1" in 30 mins here in Marshall. Practically a whiteout in progress!

Enjoy it.....they are fun ta watch. Hopefully, it makes it across the state.

[jaster220]

Enjoy it.....they are fun ta watch. Hopefully, it makes it across the state.

"Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

801 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

 

MIZ068-069-075-076-020230-

Livingston-Wayne-Washtenaw-Oakland-

801 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017

 

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT WASHTENAW...WAYNE... LIVINGSTON AND

OAKLAND COUNTIES...

 

At 758 PM EST, a snow squall was located along a line extending from

near Mason to near Jackson. Movement was east at 35 mph.

 

This squall will be near...

Fowlerville around 825 PM EST.

Howell and Manchester around 835 PM EST.

Oak Grove around 840 PM EST.

Brighton around 850 PM EST.

Hartland around 855 PM EST.

Ann Arbor and Saline around 900 PM EST.

Milford around 905 PM EST.

Milan around 910 PM EST.

 

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this snow

squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads are

likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the

squall passes your location."

[jaster220]

Lovin' this! It's like a warning for a rogue T-storm cell. Have to get my daughter from work ,before that 2nd wave hits here. Stepping out..

[Niko]

Lovin' this! It's like a warning for a rogue T-storm cell. Have to get my daughter from work ,before that 2nd wave hits here. Stepping out..

Have fun out there.

 

Btw: it looks like i might be a bit too north for that squall. Either case, its going to be a close call.

[jaster220]

Wow, what a turn-around here. Squall dropped 1.2" bringing mby to 10.6" since the torch went bye-bye last week. Second best snow pack of the winter now and we've got some nice cold days to chill the conditions even more deeply. Now if you peeps from ORD back to OMA can get into the game, it'd be great! Can only hope it happens, and soon!

[Tom]

Wow, what a turn-around here. Squall dropped 1.2" bringing mby to 10.6" since the torch went bye-bye last week. Second best snow pack of the winter now and we've got some nice cold days to chill the conditions even more deeply. Now if you peeps from ORD back to OMA can get into the game, it'd be great! Can only hope it happens, and soon!

Glad someone along our latitude is enjoying some snowy weather!  Enjoy the scenery MI peeps!

[Niko]

Sunny and frigid here in SMI with temps @ 17F and a nice, fresh snowcover.

[Tom]

Surprised we only made it into the low 20's today without a snowcover and sunshine.  Mid teens up north where we have a snow pack.

[jaster220]

Surprised we only made it into the low 20's today without a snowcover and sunshine.  Mid teens up north where we have a snow pack.

Stout cold push. Hoping beyond hope it somehow has better staying power over the snow pack and maybe help last minute trends nudge south.

[ToastedRavs]

NWS in Des Moines lives for warm weather. Not only did the tweet the February torch outlook with words "mid February looks nice" with a thumbs up....Not only that but also tweeted that Honolulu NWS has issued more winter storm warnings this winter than they have. If that doesn't piss off winter lovers, nothing will. Screw their bias. D**n liberal NWS! Lol... Couldn't resist

[Grizzcoat]

Yeah-- they also posted the 8-14day CPC outlook on F-book-- which looks like it may bust, especially the E part. You should respond back with this---