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February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 30 January 2017 - 09:41 PM

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This is a nice tater tot to leave up here for the start of the February thread.

 

Attached File  gem_asnow_nwus_40.png   143.11KB   1 downloads


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#2
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 January 2017 - 12:05 PM

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Yay!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3
snow_wizard

Posted 31 January 2017 - 12:15 PM

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Maybe this will be the thread of the ages for the Seattle area!
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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#4
AlpineExperience

Posted 31 January 2017 - 12:59 PM

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Maybe this will be the thread of the ages for the Seattle area!


Let's start this month on the right foot. 12 inches of snow!
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#5
catnip

Posted 31 January 2017 - 01:03 PM

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Let's start this month on the right foot. 12 inches of snow!

 

 

Attached File  146191db0434fea9ec374b47c5984d96.800x800x1.jpg   101.83KB   0 downloads


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#6
FroYoBro

Posted 31 January 2017 - 01:05 PM

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It is still January. These posts are unacceptable! 



#7
umadbro

Posted 31 January 2017 - 01:29 PM

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Whoa, I literally had to look at the calender. Got confused fora second

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#8
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 01:56 PM

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18z is running!!!!



#9
Deweydog

Posted 31 January 2017 - 04:47 PM

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18z is running!!!!


Tomorrow's?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 05:27 PM

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Tomorrow's?

:huh:



#11
Bryant

Posted 31 January 2017 - 06:00 PM

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:huh:


You posted about a model run from January in a February thread

#12
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 31 January 2017 - 08:57 PM

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This is a nice tater tot to leave up here for the start of the February thread.

 

attachicon.gifgem_asnow_nwus_40.png

 

Doesn't seem like a whole lot over Klamath Basin. But that could change.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 2 (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#13
snow_wizard

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:13 PM

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I'm not even going to comment on tonight's model runs. I hope they go the other way again.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#14
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:16 PM

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I'm not even going to comment on tonight's model runs. I hope they go the other way again.

If anything I feel most sad for you! :(  The runs were truly a sad outcome tonight. -- oh well... 



#15
snow_wizard

Posted 31 January 2017 - 11:24 PM

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If anything I feel most sad for you! :(  The runs were truly a sad outcome tonight. -- oh well...


The GEM and it's ensemble are good. I'll have some hope if the Euro ensemble is good.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#16
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Thankfully the 6z snapped back to a better solution.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#17
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:40 AM

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A lot of members switched back to the cold camp for the 06z ensembles.

#18
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Low of 28 this morning, currently 30 and cloudy.

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#19
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:23 AM

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12z is a step back.

 

Looks more like the 00z with the low getting hung up more to our NW rather than sweeping East towards us. Keeps the cold further NW as a result.


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#20
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:32 AM

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The GEM and it's ensemble are good. I'll have some hope if the Euro ensemble is good.

Honestly if we lose the EURO then all is lost. Which based on this morning runs looks to be the case.



#21
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Meanwhile, the Canadian is coming in pretty snowy for Friday.

 

I have a very hard time trusting this map though. Looks like quite a bit of 35-37 degree rain after a brief period of light snow that morning most likely.

 

gem_asnow_nwus_11.png


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#22
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:41 AM

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12Z GFS looks very much like the ugly 00Z GFS.    

 

The 06Z run was an outlier.



#23
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:41 AM

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Meanwhile, the Canadian is coming in pretty snowy for Friday.

 

I have a very hard time trusting this map though. Looks like quite a bit of 35-37 degree rain after a brief period of light snow that morning most likely.

 

gem_asnow_nwus_11.png

 

At this point the Friday overrunning event looks like our best hope, it does not look very good after that. Hopefully the low comes in closer to the coast and gets hung up against the cold airmass longer to extend the event.



#24
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:55 AM

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There is just a little less excitement in here compared to 24 hours ago.  :(



#25
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:59 AM

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There is just a little less excitement in here compared to 24 hours ago.  :(

 

I was really hoping to see the Puget Sound get nailed.

 

At least we still have all of February.



#26
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:04 AM

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I was really hoping to see the Puget Sound get nailed.

At least we still have all of February.


Sounds nice, but the window is closing fast now. Sadly this might be our last chance for significant snow.

#27
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:06 AM

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If there's one model to make you feel better, it's always the GEM.

 

Attached File  gem_asnow_nwus_38_12z.png   148.18KB   0 downloads


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#28
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:07 AM

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Sounds nice, but the window is closing fast now. Sadly this might be our last chance for significant snow.

 

Good point!



#29
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:12 AM

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If there's one model to make you feel better, it's always the GEM.

gem_asnow_nwus_38_12z.png


Gem always makes us feel good. If I recall correctly the GEM was one of the few models spitting out crazy snowfall for Portland in the last event.

#30
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:12 AM

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Doneslowpe!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#31
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:16 AM

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Just a little but of snow at Whistler... 12zgfs shows 160"

#32
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:17 AM

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Doneslowpe!


Down-SLOP*

#33
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:17 AM

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Gem always makes us feel good. If I recall correctly the GEM was one of the few models spitting out crazy snowfall for Portland in the last event.

It says I will have 3+ feet of snow in the next 10 days. :lol:



#34
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:19 AM

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I don't know if you guys have read this yet, but we have accomplished a 2 month streak of cooler than average temps for the first time since 2012!

 

http://komonews.com/...k-chilly-months



#35
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Doneslowpe!

 

Might have to downgrade to .0125"



#36
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:36 AM

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The 6z NAVGEM looks great. 👍🏿

#37
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:41 AM

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The 6z NAVGEM looks great. 👍🏿


Has the low coming in at Astoria.

#38
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Pdx NWS is stubbornly sticking to its guns.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#39
nwsnow

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Sure would be nice if that NAVGEM solution verified. Keep these southern stream lows further south so it doesn't interfere with the progression of that cold trough.

#40
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:58 AM

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Pdx NWS is stubbornly sticking to its guns.

Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people. 



#41
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:00 AM

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Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people. 

 

Brofight!



#42
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:04 AM

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Eh. I don't think it is that bad of a call. Unlikely anyone sees 2 inches, but a little bit of snow followed by some freezing rain certainly still looks possible. Might as well warn people. 

 

Actually, I just saw a sounding from the 12z WRF-GFS and it looks really unimpressive. It pretty much just shows some cold rain. 


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#43
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:08 AM

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It all looks really unimpressive. Even the band down around Eugene isn't reaching the ground.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#44
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:31 AM

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Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

#45
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:32 AM

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At least we still have the JMA  :lol:

 

jma_T850_us_6.png

 

jma_T850_us_7.png


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#46
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:36 AM

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Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

Euro's way warmer for Friday too.


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#47
BLI snowman

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:37 AM

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Actually, I just saw a sounding from the 12z WRF-GFS and it looks really unimpressive. It pretty much just shows some cold rain. 

 

Yeah, snow to freezing rain would be one thing but at this point nothing is actually supporting snow and any zr accumulations look to be exremely light.

 

A freezing rain advisory for places near the gorge would be the way to go, not a regionwide winter storm watch.



#48
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:39 AM

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Yeah, snow to freezing rain would be one thing but at this point nothing is actually supporting snow and any zr accumulations look to be exremely light.

 

A freezing rain advisory for places near the gorge would be the way to go, not a regionwide winter storm watch.

noticed the latest rpm took all westside snow away even in the coast range.



#49
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Euro doesn't look to improve. Hard to tell with limited access though

It's pretty much crap south of the border.  Maybe 2-3" around Bellingham.  Trace to 1" or 2 south of there, but temps are pretty marginal.  It shows close to 10" for Shawnigan Lake Friday and another 8-10" Sunday.  But shifting the track of Sundays storm even 100miles will have huge implications.



#50
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Well, that de-escalated quickly!


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"