February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO looks good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to frame this...

 

[ShawniganLake]

I am going to frame this...

 

I never really know where you live, does that look really good for you?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I never really know where you live, does that look really good for you?

 

Yes about 20-25"

[Heavy Snow]

[HighlandExperience]

Someone post  WXbell snowmap for WA/BC

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dumping snow now and 34. A dusting on the ground. 

[FroYoBro]

Dumping snow now and 34. A dusting on the ground. 

The back line has really stalled over the foothills.       

[HighlandExperience]

IMG_0569.PNG

 

When does most of that fall? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[stuffradio]

Is he doing that because he discovered a private email server in his closet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If this had come through at night I would have probably picked up 3-4". 

 

Temp down to 33 now though. 

[BLI snowman]

Looks like PDX broke its monthly record.

 

Just in time for us to dry out and get coldish air again. 

[HighlandExperience]

18z looks potentially snowy for Olympia northward next weekend. A bit ways out, perhaps a last hurrah.

[Timmy Supercell]

GEM wants a MossMan special:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

 

Notice how that just conveniently misses the Klamath Basin. I think models generally have a tough time dealing with this area. lol

[snow_wizard]

I'm becoming more confident we are looking at something pretty major coming up over the next two weeks. The last two GFS ensemble runs have been fantastic and the 12z ECMWF was nothing but cold. Given our track record this winter I think a cold outcome is pretty likely.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF suite of models is really trending colder. The operational, ensemble, and ensemble control model are all solidly cold almost continuously for the next two weeks. The ensemble mean has been trending colder for several runs now.

 

Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensemble plume snowfall forecasts?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ECMWF suite of models is really trending colder. The operational, ensemble, and ensemble control model are all solidly cold almost continuously for the next two weeks. The ensemble mean has been trending colder for several runs now.

 

Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensemble plume snowfall forecasts?

I saw the one for Hillsboro, it looks really good.

[Perturbed Member]

The ECMWF suite of models is really trending colder. The operational, ensemble, and ensemble control model are all solidly cold almost continuously for the next two weeks. The ensemble mean has been trending colder for several runs now.

 

Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensemble plume snowfall forecasts?

 

Seems to be showing up to 2 inches for SEA by early next week. Up to 2.5 inches at PDX and over 3 inches at HIO. Pretty good ensemble support. 

 

Looks promising. 

[Front Ranger]

At 8.33", SEA is just behind 1996 for third wettest February on record. Should pass in the next 24 hours or so, and then only 1951 and 1961 (9.11") will remain ahead. Will probably fall a bit short of the record, but we'll see.

 

Somewhat interestingly, the 8.37" at OLM isn't even close to a record, with many years ahead of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is at like 8" and they had over 17" in 1996

[snow_wizard]

At 8.33", SEA is just behind 1996 for third wettest February on record. Should pass in the next 24 hours or so, and then only 1951 and 1961 (9.11") will remain ahead. Will probably fall a bit short of the record, but we'll see.

 

Somewhat interestingly, the 8.37" at OLM isn't even close to a record, with many years ahead of it.

Perhaps 1951 will be a good analog for this late winter and spring. Nina to Nino transition, similar weather, etc. I would love to see an April like 1951. Quite continental with many abnormally cold nights and lots of sunshine.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ECMWF has sure backed off on the southern low. It seems to be reverting to some of its earlier solutions before the models starting going nuts with the idea of a bombing southern low on Sunday. Sunday is still potentially in play, it will be interesting to see what tonight's runs do with those two lows.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022112/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly the 18z operational was the warm outlier against the ensembles. 

[TT-SEA]

Every time I check the SEA radar its raining in my area. I think its been raining since just after we got on the plane last Friday. Perfect time to get away.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Every time I check the SEA radar its raining in my area. I think its been raining since just after we got on the plane last Friday. Perfect time to get away.

 

It was mild and sunny all day out here today. Not much more than scattered convective clouds running down the Juan de Fuca and into the Olympic Mountains.

[TT-SEA]

It was mild and sunny all day out here today. Not much more than scattered convective clouds running down the Juan de Fuca and into the Olympic Mountains.

Very different to the south and east of Seattle. Endless parade of deformation zones and now a c-zone.

[Front Ranger]

Very different to the south and east of Seattle. Endless parade of deformation zones and now a c-zone.

 

Nothing like constantly monitoring the radar back home while on vacation. Florida must be boring as hell.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing like constantly monitoring the radar back home while on vacation. Florida must be boring as hell.

The opposite of boring. The SEA radar is just the top bookmark on my phone. And I always check weather. And the models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian is much more interesting for early next week than the GFS, 

[Jesse]

It was mild and sunny all day out here today. Not much more than scattered convective clouds running down the Juan de Fuca and into the Olympic Mountains.

 

Have you guys managed 60 yet this year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z sucks in the long range

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Have you guys managed 60 yet this year?

 

With the sun and humidity today felt like at least 62F, but alas the best we've been able to do so far this year is 54.5F.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z sucks in the long range

 

The models need to get a handle on Sunday's coastal lows before any of the stuff next week starts to matter. It seems like the runs that have kept the northern low intact and fizzled out the southern low have generally led to a more desirable pattern evolution next week.

[Bryant]

00z sucks in the long range

Without even looking, I assume it returns to an Alaskan low/Western ridge?

[Jesse]

Without even looking, I assume it returns to an Alaskan low/Western ridge?

Snow at every elevation but 1,600'. Really weird pattern.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z ensemble says the operational is on drugs. The ensembles have been great lately. I'm going with the cold solution due to precedence that has been set this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The operational is a big outlier. Good news. 

 

Nice to get some sticking snow today.

[Bryant]

The 0z ensemble says the operational is on drugs. The ensembles have been great lately. I'm going with the cold solution due to precedence that has been set this winter.

At this point, I'd stick to a Euro/Canadian blend, including their ensembles. Taking a look at the GFS OP and GEFS mjo forecasts, the model is clearly struggling. Anytime the mjo forecast loops backwards, that should be a red flag, as it's not physically possible for the mjo to kick it in reverse and propagate westward. GEFS and ECMWF shown below, notice the huge difference

 

http://i.imgur.com/2en442q.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/IZim6fP.jpg