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February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#5951
snow maniac

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:37 PM

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Only 7 inches total this year, I get shafted by the olympics every time the flow comes out of the north or NW

#5952
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:59 PM

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Currently sitting at 38F and rainy with the thin remaining layer of snow quickly melting away, about a month ago this likely would have started as snow. I'm up to just over 24" of snow this season, 17" of which fell this month, only 1" of which fell in January. Temperatures have also been solidly below average, YYJ is finishing the month at about 38.4F compared with the seasonal monthly average of 41.1F.


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#5953
bainbridgekid

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:06 PM

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For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.
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2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#5954
epiceast

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:07 PM

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If you think this winter has been bad, and you are expecting enough global warming to close White Pass and Crystal Mountain over the next few decades, you are in for a lot of disappointment.

Jesse,

 

That was posted in the other thread. Don't need to put it in here. And also you can discuss that with me over there, but my point is that Snoqualmie/Stevens will be a lot more resilient to global warming.

 

Finally, they were closed for a winter 2 seasons ago. We can also discuss the semantics of "closed" like we do about everything with Tim here too if you would like.



#5955
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:09 PM

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I'm at 11" scattered between 5 snow events. 4-5 inches on January 11th

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5956
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:10 PM

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But about a mile away up the hill into Sherwood was 8" and close to 10 in Tualatin on that january 11th snowstorm.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5957
AlpineExperience

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:10 PM

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For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.


About time.

#5958
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:11 PM

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For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.


I'm willing to bet the majority of population is more than OK with that.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5959
Phil

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:12 PM

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About time.


Why do you always root against others getting snow?
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#5960
AlpineExperience

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:14 PM

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Why do you always root against others getting snow?

Just hard to feel sorry for a city that sees copious snow every season 😂

They will more than make up for it next season !
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#5961
BLI snowman

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:23 PM

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Bye winter!!

See you next weekend!
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#5962
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:26 PM

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Bye winter!!

See you next weekend!


GFS alert! 🚨
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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5963
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:35 PM

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GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.


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#5964
epiceast

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:38 PM

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GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.

March is the only month where onshore flow is not a death sentence for snow. But I don't like the position of 850mb lows it mostly stays off shore or over VI, never really goes to east of the sound to really get the NW flow cranking.


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#5965
BLI snowman

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:47 PM

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GFS continues to show snow Sunday - Monday. Euro ensemble mean for PDX was 2+ inches through that period too and 4+ for HIO.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png


I don't buy it for the lowest elevations though. Too much onshore flow. Looks great for places with elevation.


All about the right precip intensity at the right times in a pattern like that. Looking juicier than the trough last week, at least.

#5966
CTA

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:03 PM

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FWIW, the 2/5-2/6 storm at OLM brought .88" of all snow precip. That was a big snowfall for them, and it started much earlier than places further north.


We only got about 4-5" with that. Snowed for several hours but took forever for temp to drop enough for sticking. I'd guesstimate about 10-12" for the entire winter.

#5967
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:12 PM

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Jesse,

That was posted in the other thread. Don't need to put it in here. And also you can discuss that with me over there, but my point is that Snoqualmie/Stevens will be a lot more resilient to global warming.

Finally, they were closed for a winter 2 seasons ago. We can also discuss the semantics of "closed" like we do about everything with Tim here too if you would like.


I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.

#5968
epiceast

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:20 PM

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I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.

And you didn't understand mine. You're right I'm leaning towards it, but it's not a strong position, I was only assuming that so I could make my strong and primary argument that the Pass ski areas are in much better position against warm winters on 850mb level than west of the crest areas. I'll agree with you that despite the episodic nature of PNW snowfall for about 75% of the times, global warming will not help.  Although it might help here depending on the kind of gradients we get in the cold pool boundaries, if they would affect the storm track & strength positively in the intermountain west.



#5969
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:55 PM

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All about the right precip intensity at the right times in a pattern like that. Looking juicier than the trough last week, at least.

 

 

Yeah someone will probably score but doesn't seem like a good pattern for stuff that is too widespread. Whoever gets under some sustained moderate-heavy precip and is cool enough I guess.


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#5970
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:55 PM

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It's nice having the prospect of a coveted weekend snowfall, however temperatures aloft are looking even more marginal than they were last weekend and don't appear to approach snow territory until Monday. Could be a more marginal repeat of what we just had. Doesn't mean some intense convective showers might not popup and give a brief snowcover to smaller areas, but it has a lot more going against it when the 850mbs are above -7C and 925s above -2C.


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#5971
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:06 PM

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For those still frustrated by their lack of snow, just a reminder:

Chicago has had zero snow on the ground since Christmas. First time since the 1870's they've had a snowless January and February.


Wow!

To think that area had their coldest winter since 1893 just a few years back. I think the atmosphere is as insane now as it was in the 1930s. Crazy roller coaster.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5972
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:09 PM

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I think you are misunderstanding my point. You seem to be leaning toward a pretty speedy global warming scenario in the PNW. If things play out that way, if this winter doesn't meet your standards you will find few if any that do, going forward.


You're forgetting about the solar aspect. I'm betting on 2018-19 to be huge assuming next winter is warm ENSO.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5973
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:10 PM

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It's nice having the prospect of a coveted weekend snowfall, however temperatures aloft are looking even more marginal than they were last weekend and don't appear to approach snow territory until Monday. Could be a more marginal repeat of what we just had. Doesn't mean some intense convective showers might not popup and give a brief snowcover to smaller areas, but it has a lot more going against it when the 850mbs are above -7C and 925s above -2C.


The WRF is insisting on lowland snow in the 4 to 7 day period.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5974
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:14 PM

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March is the only month where onshore flow is not a death sentence for snow. But I don't like the position of 850mb lows it mostly stays off shore or over VI, never really goes to east of the sound to really get the NW flow cranking.


My area does very well with cold WSW flow which is depicted on the last few GFS runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5975
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 28 February 2017 - 11:07 PM

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My area does very well with cold WSW flow which is depicted on the last few GFS runs.

 

Cold WSW flow seems like a good snow pattern here as well, but so far it's only worked out well when there is a low level northerly flow.



#5976
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 11:15 PM

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I plugged the SEA and PDX numbers for this winter into my winter ranking system and here are the results. My system uses a combination of...coldest month, 3 month average temp, extreme minimum temp, snowiest month, seasonal snowfall, and greatest 24 hour snowfall. I only do Dec - Feb for temps, but the snowfall includes the entire cold season so we could still add to that part of it.

Seattle ended up with 11 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

PDX ended up with 17 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

The combined total of 28 compares to 32 for 2008-09.

Portland kicked Seattle's butt this winter, but rest assured there are years Seattle returns the favor.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5977
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2017 - 11:18 PM

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Cold WSW flow seems like a good snow pattern here as well, but so far it's only worked out well when there is a low level northerly flow.


I've seen snow here a number of times with onshore flow. We can get some cold air damming against the west slopes of the Cascades with situations like what might happen this weekend / early next week. March is the month for snow with onshore flow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Coldest low so far 2017-18 = 42 
 


#5978
Front Ranger

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:15 AM

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We only got about 4-5" with that. Snowed for several hours but took forever for temp to drop enough for sticking. I'd guesstimate about 10-12" for the entire winter.


Interesting. OLM was 32 for the vast majority of it. I know they tend to do a bit better than Olympia proper.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5979
Front Ranger

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:17 AM

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I plugged the SEA and PDX numbers for this winter into my winter ranking system and here are the results. My system uses a combination of...coldest month, 3 month average temp, extreme minimum temp, snowiest month, seasonal snowfall, and greatest 24 hour snowfall. I only do Dec - Feb for temps, but the snowfall includes the entire cold season so we could still add to that part of it.

Seattle ended up with 11 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

PDX ended up with 17 points compared to 16 for 2008-09.

The combined total of 28 compares to 32 for 2008-09.

Portland kicked Seattle's butt this winter, but rest assured there are years Seattle returns the favor.


Sounds about right.

2008-09 was pretty awesome in how even it ended up for pretty much everyone north of Salem.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5980
CTA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:07 AM

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Interesting. OLM was 32 for the vast majority of it. I know they tend to do a bit better than Olympia proper.

Not sure how accurate that was.  I am same exact elevation (204') and about 2 miles from there.  It was frustrating seeing all that snow melting. 



#5981
Bryant

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:27 AM

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12z GFS continues to show potential for next week

#5982
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 06:58 AM

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February stats here.

 

Attached File  Feb2017wx.png   579.69KB   0 downloads


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

Total moisture 2017: 26.62", 9/22

Elevation: 460 ft