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February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#51
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:04 AM

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City of Portland having a press conference this afternoon to outline how they're going to handle the winter storm. Tune in and save the ones you love!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#52
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:32 AM

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Well now what?



#53
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:37 AM

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Crap is our default here. It was fun to dream at least.

#54
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:39 AM

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Well now what?

Pitchers and Catchers??



#55
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:48 AM

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Pitchers and Catchers??


I'm predicting the mariners to win the division. With this team we have on paper, there is no reason they can't barring any major injuries.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#56
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 11:52 AM

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Well now what?

 

We all wait until our inevitable death. 



#57
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:01 PM

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Will NWS PDX drop the WSW?

#58
Phil

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Well, the wave-2 follow up fails, and the vortex returns. These events are just so unstable and unpredictable sometimes.

u_65N_10hpa.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#59
Phil

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:09 PM

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The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#60
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:28 PM

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We all wait until our inevitable death.


Matt?

#61
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:35 PM

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Matt?


You asked...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#62
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 12:50 PM

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You asked...


Pedro?

#63
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:10 PM

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PDX up to 40.

Looking likely they won't even score a sub-40 high or sub-freezing low with this setup.

#64
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:34 PM

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Pedro?


You needed guidance and you got it. The best days are behind you.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#65
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:39 PM

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You needed guidance and you got it. The best days are behind you.


I've lost track of what we are even talking about.

#66
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:40 PM

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I've lost track of what we are even talking about.

 

You wasted your potential. You could have been great. Sad!


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#67
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:43 PM

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You wasted your potential. You could have been great. Sad!


I yelled the same thing at the sky today.
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#68
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:46 PM

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I yelled the same thing at the sky today.

 

We had a pretty good run. I am actually looking forward to warm weather this spring.  :o



#69
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 01:50 PM

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We had a pretty good run. I am actually looking forward to warm weather this spring. :o


No doubt we did!

I want to see the Puget Sound region score before winter is over though.

As for spring, I am looking forward to lots of mountain snow and lowland highs in the mid-40s. Frequent cold hail showers. :wub:

#70
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:04 PM

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I've lost track of what we are even talking about.


That happens when you lose all hope.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#71
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:15 PM

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That happens when you lose all hope.


A January with an average temp in the low-30s is more than I could have ever hoped for!

#72
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:22 PM

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The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet.

Too late...  :unsure:



#73
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:34 PM

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Looking at the larger scale upper level pattern... The difference between a foot of snow (yesterday's runs) and hardly anything (today's)... is extremely small. The results for us are worlds different, yet when looking at the entire pattern for North America... this general area is the only area greatly affected. I mean, the pattern STILL predicted is a lot different than the one being shown before things changed drastically for the better a couple of days ago. 



#74
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:46 PM

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Looking at the larger scale upper level pattern... The difference between a foot of snow (yesterday's runs) and hardly anything (today's)... is extremely small. The results for us are worlds different, yet when looking at the entire pattern for North America... this general area is the only area greatly affected. I mean, the pattern STILL predicted is a lot different than the one being shown before things changed drastically for the better a couple of days ago.


You're holding on to hope... just let it go and be free.

I hope we can scrape up something near the end of the month when tropical forcing returns to the La NinĂ£ regions
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#75
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 02:48 PM

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A January with an average temp in the low-30s is more than I could have ever hoped for!


Well now what?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#76
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:26 PM

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Well now what?


A coolish March would be fun.

#77
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:29 PM

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Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!



#78
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:33 PM

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A coolish March would be fun.

It would be better than cold hailstorms the whole time. That would destroy all my vegetables!



#79
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:36 PM

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It would be better than cold hailstorms the whole time. That would destroy all my vegetables!


I'm hoping for the hailstorms too.
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#80
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:37 PM

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Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!

The latest GFS and 00z ECMWF shows the PNA staying negative until the 9th or 10th.



#81
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:41 PM

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43 with a dewpoint of 7 at SEA and E21G30.   Lip chapping!  

 

Gorgeous day... sunny from the start.   



#82
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:44 PM

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Pdx NWS doesn't have clue reading their latest discussion.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#83
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:48 PM

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Looks very nice for the eastern half of the U.S. ... :)

 

Attached File  gfs_T850_us_34.png   252.07KB   1 downloads



#84
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 03:57 PM

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I'm hoping for the hailstorms too.


Angry little man!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#85
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:03 PM

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Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!


Those teleconnection forecasts can swing as wildly as the models. I say we have 1 more shot near the end of the month with MJO once again propagating into the EHem
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#86
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:09 PM

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Angry little man!


I like cold core storms and hail.

I said something about that before he ever mentioned the impact on his vegetables. :lol: Nothing angry about it.
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#87
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:24 PM

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Flurries in Newberg.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#88
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:24 PM

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Those teleconnection forecasts can swing as wildly as the models. I say we have 1 more shot near the end of the month with MJO once again propagating into the EHem

CFS weeklies have been showing a GOA ridge popping late February or early march. Seems to be along your line of thinking.
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#89
dolt

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:29 PM

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297.png


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#90
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:31 PM

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CFS weeklies have been showing a GOA ridge popping late February or early march. Seems to be along your line of thinking.


Yup, it is. Maybe that model will be right for once =P

#91
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:39 PM

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38 here but it's a dry heat.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#92
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:42 PM

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I like cold core storms and hail.

I said something about that before he ever mentioned the impact on his vegetables. :lol: Nothing angry about it.

I like to bring my vegetables into everything.



#93
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 04:48 PM

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38 here but it's a dry heat.


I literally lol'd

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#94
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:04 PM

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Currently 29F!

#95
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 06:05 PM

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Currently 29F!

37 here. The wind is still going strong. 



#96
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:06 PM

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You're holding on to hope... just let it go and be free.

I hope we can scrape up something near the end of the month when tropical forcing returns to the La NinĂ£ regions

Nah just pointing out once again how something so small on a larger scale can impact us so greatly

Also... my point that the pattern atill being depicted by the models is far closer to something really good than that the one being shown before the dramatic shift the other day.

Attached Files


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#97
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:08 PM

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Well the 18z NAVGEM still has our back (sort of).

 

24170e233d0059084b8fdc57d989a367.jpg


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#98
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Pdx NWS doesn't have clue reading their latest discussion.

 

The more things change...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#99
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:10 PM

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Just once I'd love this climate to surprise me.

#100
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:11 PM

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00z is a small step in the right direction :)


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"