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February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:18 PM

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At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#102
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:18 PM

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At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA.


Maybe GFS caving towards the admiral

#103
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:19 PM

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At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA.

Hangs on to the cold air a little better going into Saturday.

#104
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:20 PM

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Just once I'd love this climate to surprise me.


The shift on the 00z runs last night was pretty surprising!
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#105
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:22 PM

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Definitely a nicer look to the 0z GFS, it's not a total turn around but it still keeps the potential for something better in play. The GEM also looks a bit better up to Saturday. It brings the low in a little closer to the coast for an extended overrunning event from Seattle northward and doesn't send the secondary low as far offshore on Saturday.



#106
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:24 PM

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00z is a small step in the right direction :)

Yep... colder rain. 



#107
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:24 PM

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Definitely a nicer look to the 0z GFS, it's not a total turn around but it still keeps the potential for something better in play. The GEM also looks a bit better up to Saturday. It brings the low in a little closer to the coast for an extended overrunning event from Seattle northward and doesn't send the secondary low as far offshore on Saturday.

That secondary low staying close to shore could have big implications to Sunday's outcome.

#108
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:25 PM

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At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA. 

Yep...

 

Attached File  gfs_asnow_nwus_28.png   185.1KB   0 downloads



#109
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:37 PM

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Early next week trended better on both the 00z GFS and GEM. It's all going to come down to the strong L on Sunday. The farther south it comes in the better.
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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#110
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:39 PM

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Early next week trended better on both the 00z GFS and GEM. It's all going to come down to the strong L on Sunday. The farther south it comes in the better.


We need that low going right over Astoria 😂
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#111
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:52 PM

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In other news a high wind warning has just been issued for my area tonight. East winds with Gust up to 60mph... 



#112
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 08:54 PM

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Pretty breezy north winds this evening here, which is very rare for my wind sheltered location. 32 degrees at the moment.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#113
van city

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:03 PM

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Where's Wizardo?
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#114
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:13 PM

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Where's Wizardo?

Models took a crap...he stops posting when models crap.

#115
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 09:49 PM

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Pretty amazing how the models are still just totally having fits with the next 7 days.

Lots of ensemble spread still. Although there seems to be a slight trend toward the colder solutions again the last few runs.

#116
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:02 PM

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Major ensemble improvement...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#117
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:06 PM

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The ECMWF continues to look good for a nice Friday overrunning event (at least from Seattle-north); I'm liking the track that low takes. It also looks a little cooler and further south with the Arctic air to the north.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_3.png



#118
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:08 PM

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The ECMWF continues to look good for a nice Friday overrunning event (at least from Seattle-north); I'm liking the track that low takes. It also looks a little cooler and further south with the Arctic air to the north.

ecmwf_T850_nwus_3.png


Looks like freezing rain for at my location.

#119
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:12 PM

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Possible baby carrots on the euro. I think baby carrots are sweet

#120
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:15 PM

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Major ensemble improvement...

 

Man I really called it last night when you guys were totally panicking!



#121
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:19 PM

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I only saw a couple Puget sound folks panicking.

Don't mistake ones prediction with panic.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#122
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:19 PM

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Looks like freezing rain for at my location.

 

It's definitely a good sign to see 850mb temperature still below freezing over the Puget Sound right into Friday evening. With offshore flow and precipitation bands rolling through there will be a fair amount of cooling in the lower levels. So far the NAM has been the worst of the models, expecting the cold air to scour rapidly on Friday. Fortunately it's currently alone in that prediction.



#123
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:21 PM

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Wow! That's quite the turn-around.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png


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#124
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:23 PM

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Wow! That's quite the turn-around.

ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png


Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions

#125
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:24 PM

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Game on? At least at "my location."

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#126
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:24 PM

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Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions


I want to see precip maps.

#127
Sounder

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:27 PM

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There is still enormous potential with this, as tonight's runs are showing. Brennan is not wrong by saying earlier that the overall pattern remains nearly the same, even with the worst runs of the last 24 hours. It really will not take a huge shift to nail us harder than Steve Bannon hits his wife.


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#128
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:30 PM

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There is still enormous potential with this, as tonight's runs are showing. Brennan is not wrong by saying earlier that the overall pattern remains nearly the same, even with the worst runs of the last 24 hours. It really will not take a huge shift to nail us harder than Steve Bannon hits his wife.



You mean to tell me that the models have flipped and,flopped all year and I shouldn't take yesterday's models as gospel? No, no! No way!

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#129
Sounder

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:31 PM

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You mean to tell me that the models have flipped and,flopped all year and I shouldn't take yesterday's models as gospel? No, no! No way!

Amazing how you completely missed my point. If Seattle ends up getting a foot out of this, yesterday's models wouldn't actually have been that wrong in regard to the overall pattern. When you ride such a razor thin margin for error like this, tiny pattern shifts make enormous local differences.



#130
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:33 PM

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Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions

 

Calibration I guess. This is becoming quite the model rollercoaster. I'm just glad that there have been improvements with the first event on Friday, especially with many of the model runs bringing the low up closer to the shore. It could easily be the best event of our winter so far for many of us in the "screw zone"; perhaps the best event of the winter if the fun stuff that was forecast early next week doesn't come back into play. It also seems that having the initial low closer to shore reduces some of the negative tendencies to want to spit energy further offshore with the secondary low.


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#131
crf450ish

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:35 PM

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Where's Wizardo?

http://theweatherfor...hwest/?p=213331



#132
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:36 PM

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Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details.    But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF.    Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

ecmwf_snow_144_washington_25.png


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#133
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:36 PM

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Amazing how you completely missed my point. If Seattle ends up getting a foot out of this, yesterday's models wouldn't actually have been that wrong in regard to the overall pattern. When you ride such a razor thin margin for error like this, tiny pattern shifts make enormous local differences.


I think you didn't pick up on my sarcasm. Its alright. Jesse would have just called names. At least you explained your point. I understand what you were saying.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#134
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:39 PM

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This is just the snowfall during the day on Super Bowl Sunday...

 

ecmwf_snow_12_seattle_17.png



#135
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:40 PM

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I think you didn't pick up on my sarcasm. Its alright. Jesse would have just called names. At least you explained your point. I understand what you were saying.


I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.

#136
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:41 PM

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Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details. But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF. Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

ecmwf_snow_144_washington_25.png


That would be something.

#137
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:42 PM

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This has all the earmarks of a Whatcom County special.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#138
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:43 PM

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Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details.    But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF.    Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

ecmwf_snow_144_washington_25.png

 

That's insane! That low driving up on Sunday looks like a major culprit for padding the totals.



#139
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:44 PM

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Glad to see prospects improving again up north.

#140
umadbro

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:44 PM

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I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.


I know you. Just don't worry about it. You'll quit here again before it's all done. You'll probably still move on just fine AS WELL.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#141
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:44 PM

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That's insane! That low driving up on Sunday looks like a major culprit for padding the totals.


Those are hefty totals. Hope we can get some higher amounts in central Sound as well.

#142
snow_wizard

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:46 PM

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This has all the earmarks of a Whatcom County special.


Maybe. Pretty likely another screw job for us though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#143
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:46 PM

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I know you. Just don't worry about it. You'll quit here again before it's all done. You'll probably still move on just fine AS WELL.


Honestly you are getting annoying in your spat with Jesse.
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#144
van city

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:46 PM

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Wizardo is back.

#145
stuffradio

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:48 PM

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Man, King EURO looks like king GEM. Go Canadians!


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#146
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:48 PM

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As it stands the ECMWF now looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS with the handling of the lows on Friday and Sunday.



#147
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:49 PM

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As it stands the ECMWF now looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS with the handling of the lows on Friday and Sunday.


Don't forget the admiral

#148
Jesse

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:49 PM

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Honestly you are getting annoying in your spat with Jesse.


I'm pretty perplexed. Don't know the guy from Adam and his accusations have been pretty baseless. I almost get the feeling he has me confused with someone else :lol:
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#149
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:49 PM

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Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details. But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF. Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

ecmwf_snow_144_washington_25.png


Wow you guys get clobbered up there. Even Astoria gets some snow.
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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#150
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2017 - 10:51 PM

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I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.


Seems to be someone who had their account banned, or made a fool of themselves and made a new one
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