February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

43 with a dewpoint of 7 at SEA and E21G30.   Lip chapping!  

 

Gorgeous day... sunny from the start.   

[umadbro]

Pdx NWS doesn't have clue reading their latest discussion.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks very nice for the eastern half of the U.S. ...

 

[Deweydog]

I'm hoping for the hailstorms too.

Angry little man!

[Bryant]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I think after the possible slop/rain on Friday I would say winter is pretty much wrapped up. Such a shame, at least my daughter and I were able to build one snowman back before Christmas. I can never remember a winter where we had SO much potential that just crapped on us Puget Sounders over and over again. Oh well!

Those teleconnection forecasts can swing as wildly as the models. I say we have 1 more shot near the end of the month with MJO once again propagating into the EHem

[Jesse]

Angry little man!

I like cold core storms and hail.

 

I said something about that before he ever mentioned the impact on his vegetables. Nothing angry about it.

[umadbro]

Flurries in Newberg.

[ShawniganLake]

Those teleconnection forecasts can swing as wildly as the models. I say we have 1 more shot near the end of the month with MJO once again propagating into the EHem

CFS weeklies have been showing a GOA ridge popping late February or early march. Seems to be along your line of thinking.

[Dave]

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/044/247/297.png

[Bryant]

CFS weeklies have been showing a GOA ridge popping late February or early march. Seems to be along your line of thinking.

Yup, it is. Maybe that model will be right for once =P

[Deweydog]

38 here but it's a dry heat.  

[stuffradio]

I like cold core storms and hail.

 

I said something about that before he ever mentioned the impact on his vegetables. Nothing angry about it.

I like to bring my vegetables into everything.

[umadbro]

38 here but it's a dry heat.

I literally lol'd

[MossMan]

Currently 29F!

[FroYoBro]

Currently 29F!

37 here. The wind is still going strong. 

[Brennan]

You're holding on to hope... just let it go and be free.

 

I hope we can scrape up something near the end of the month when tropical forcing returns to the La Ninã regions

Nah just pointing out once again how something so small on a larger scale can impact us so greatly

 

Also... my point that the pattern atill being depicted by the models is far closer to something really good than that the one being shown before the dramatic shift the other day.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the 18z NAVGEM still has our back (sort of).

 

[Front Ranger]

Pdx NWS doesn't have clue reading their latest discussion.

 

The more things change...

[HighlandExperience]

Just once I'd love this climate to surprise me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is a small step in the right direction

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA. 

[HighlandExperience]

At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA.

Maybe GFS caving towards the admiral

[ShawniganLake]

At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA.

Hangs on to the cold air a little better going into Saturday.

[Jesse]

Just once I'd love this climate to surprise me.

The shift on the 00z runs last night was pretty surprising!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Definitely a nicer look to the 0z GFS, it's not a total turn around but it still keeps the potential for something better in play. The GEM also looks a bit better up to Saturday. It brings the low in a little closer to the coast for an extended overrunning event from Seattle northward and doesn't send the secondary low as far offshore on Saturday.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z is a small step in the right direction

Yep... colder rain. 

[ShawniganLake]

Definitely a nicer look to the 0z GFS, it's not a total turn around but it still keeps the potential for something better in play. The GEM also looks a bit better up to Saturday. It brings the low in a little closer to the coast for an extended overrunning event from Seattle northward and doesn't send the secondary low as far offshore on Saturday.

That secondary low staying close to shore could have big implications to Sunday's outcome.

[luvssnow_spokane]

At face value could be good for the N. Interior of WA. 

Yep...

 

[Heavy Snow]

Early next week trended better on both the 00z GFS and GEM. It's all going to come down to the strong L on Sunday. The farther south it comes in the better.

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

In other news a high wind warning has just been issued for my area tonight. East winds with Gust up to 60mph... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty breezy north winds this evening here, which is very rare for my wind sheltered location. 32 degrees at the moment.

[van city]

Where's Wizardo?

[MossMan]

Where's Wizardo?

Models took a crap...he stops posting when models crap.

[Jesse]

Pretty amazing how the models are still just totally having fits with the next 7 days.

 

Lots of ensemble spread still. Although there seems to be a slight trend toward the colder solutions again the last few runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major ensemble improvement...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ECMWF continues to look good for a nice Friday overrunning event (at least from Seattle-north); I'm liking the track that low takes. It also looks a little cooler and further south with the Arctic air to the north.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_3.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ECMWF continues to look good for a nice Friday overrunning event (at least from Seattle-north); I'm liking the track that low takes. It also looks a little cooler and further south with the Arctic air to the north.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_3.png

Looks like freezing rain for at my location.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Possible baby carrots on the euro. I think baby carrots are sweet

[Jesse]

Major ensemble improvement...

 

Man I really called it last night when you guys were totally panicking!