February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Dave]

That's a tasty fork.

I'm pretty sure I've seen the last of winter down here.  Looks like areas from PDX north still have a decent chance.  

[snow_wizard]

I do have to admit the ECMWF and its ensemble show some promise and are decidedly better than 24 hours ago. Maybe there's a chance.

[Perturbed Member]

Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details.    But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF.    Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

 

D**n, even the Pacific ocean is gonna get more than the Willamette valley this time.  Punishment for the last event?

[Timmy]

Pretty breezy north winds this evening here, which is very rare for my wind sheltered location. 32 degrees at the moment.

Strongest east wind I have ever seen here yesterday and last night, finally got power back around 1am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW

[ShawniganLake]

WOW

Yeah. No kidding. Way south. I don't even come close to transitioning to rain thru next week.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Talking about living on the edge lately! Wow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Massive improvement...Which was foreshadowed in the 06z ensembles...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a big snow storm about Kelso north!

[bainbridgekid]

12z is about 7 steps in the right direction.

 

Colder and way further South with Sundays low which allows early next week to be much colder.

 

Nice snowstorm for Puget Sound Sunday night and Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow level PDX south looks to be just off the valley floor in the 500-1000' range on this run.

[FroYoBro]

The model riding isn't done yet! I am rooting for everyone up in Washington! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The wild ride contiues, the 12z GFS is golden and the GEM looks like it's shaping up nicely so far.

[Kayla]

Wow, looks like another medium range model disaster turns favorable once again. Have had many of those this season and after the mid range flip they have verified and even improved leading up to the event. Good sign for next week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The NAM still hasn't got the memo:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020212/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

[ShawniganLake]

The wild ride contiues, the 12z GFS is golden and the GEM looks like it's shaping up nicely so far.

The GEM has Sunday nights storm off Northern California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian continues the trend.

[FroYoBro]

Canadian continues the trend.

 

It is even further south than the latest GFS and gives Oregon the goods too. 

[Perturbed Member]

GEM gives a serious snowstorm to south Willamette valley maybe. Low is even further south than the GFS. 

[Jesse]

Wow, looks like another medium range model disaster turns favorable once again. Have had many of those this season and after the mid range flip they have verified and even improved leading up to the event. Good sign for next week.

Yeah amazing how many times the models have followed this progression this winter.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GEM has Sunday nights storm off Northern California.

 

The details on the GEM don't look as good. The rule of the winter up here has been to hope for a northward trend, because just about everything significant has gone south. In this case I'm not so sure jet supression is going to be as great an issue as cyclogenisis, I get the feeling that Sunday low is going to want to bomb out and will probably run a bit north of where the models settle.

[ShawniganLake]

The details on the GEM don't look as good. The rule of the winter up here has been to hope for a northward trend, because just about everything significant has gone south. In this case I'm not so sure jet supression is going to be as great an issue as cyclogenisis, I get the feeling that Sunday low is going to want to bomb out and will probably run a bit north of where the models settle.

Could be. Sure a giant jump in the models this morning. Wonder what the Euro has in store.

 

WRF is very generous with the snow up here tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS would be awesome for the Puget Sound.  

 

Sunday afternoon and night could be similar to the big snowstorm in Portland a few weeks ago.

[FroYoBro]

12Z GFS would be awesome for the Puget Sound.  

 

Sunday afternoon and night could be similar to the big snowstorm in Portland a few weeks ago.

 

It would definitely make Super Bowl parties more entertaining. 

[Heavy Snow]

Unbelievable GFS and GEM model runs so far this morning. The trend is our friend again. All eyes on you now UKMET and EURO.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

 

 

Strange map. Snowing pretty much all along the OR coast with temps near freezing even at PDX and 0c or colder aloft but all rain there. That is close to a perfect track for you guys up north though. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Could be. Sure a giant jump in the models this morning. Wonder what the Euro has in store.

 

WRF is very generous with the snow up here tomorrow.

 

The 12z WRF doesn't even show a trace of snow over Victoria, Bellingham or Seattle over the next 48 hours. Tomorrow will be another test of that model's reliability; all signs point to some sort of overrunning event if the WRF proves it wrong I'll definitely give more credence to its snowfall predictions.

[catnip]

The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^

[FroYoBro]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

 

 

Strange map. Snowing pretty much all along the OR coast with temps near freezing even at PDX and 0c or colder aloft but all rain there. That is close to a perfect track for you guys up north though. 

That map is actually showing rain at the Oregon coast, but snow up in the coast range. It would basically be a pattern for snow in the hills, a mix on the valley. 

[van city]

^^^^^^^^^^^

Phil, Phil, Phil....

[HighlandExperience]

Sure hope the Seattle area finally gets this snow monkey off its back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem is a gem

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Remember the average high a PDX is now about 50 so we are quite cool this week

[Jesse]

Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO.

 

We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Deweydog]

^^^^^^^^^^^^

Well now what?

[Jesse]

Well now what?

I think you still don't realize that I was directly mocking a post of yours a few weeks ago when I said that.

[Deweydog]

I think you still don't realize that I was directly mocking a post of yours a few weeks ago when I said that.

I may have to send you a bleeding heart PM over it.

[ShawniganLake]

The WRF is fun to look at. Showing 2 feet here by Saturday night and still snowing heavily.

[Brennan]

Wrf has sucked this winter

[ShawniganLake]

Wrf has sucked this winter

I know. I can dream. Would be a repeat of January 2005 here