2017 Spring/Summer Outlook

[Tom]

I'm sure there are many on here who are ready for Spring to arrive.  How soon will we see our first 60's, 70's and spring time thunderstorms???  Will we see an El Nino forming this Summer???  I started a separate thread for that possibility and it is certainly on the table as more modeling is picking up on it. 

 

Trends in the models are that we will see an early Spring as we flip the calendar into meteorological Spring.

 

Let's Discuss...

 

Here is the latest CFSv2 run for March...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017020118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017020118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

 

Latest CanSIPS run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_T2ma_us_2.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017020100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_2.png

 

 

 

 

The JAMSTEC model is also showing a very warm Spring...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1jan2017.gif

 

Seems a bit to dry in the central CONUS...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1jan2017.gif

 

 

 

There has been some talk of growing concerns of a possible drought this summer in the heartland.  The missouri valley has been very dry and if this region expands heading into the Spring, might not be a good growing season for parts of the Midwest/Plains.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

[OKwx2k4]

Crossing into severe drought territory here for sure. If there's one thing the La Niña type weather delivered it was this. If we can get the QBO to cycle this time around the way it's supposed to, good chance at a warmer than avg spring fading into a cooler than average summer with more precip in places that need it.

[jaster220]

Crossing into severe drought territory here for sure. If there's one thing the La Niña type weather delivered it was this. If we can get the QBO to cycle this time around the way it's supposed to, good chance at a warmer than avg spring fading into a cooler than average summer with more precip in places that need it.

 

That'd be good for sure. While I'd be fine with the early warmth of 2012, I cringe at the thought of your conditions projecting northeast into MI like what I experienced in '88. Neither of those were fun, but '88 was longer and more consistently hot (days of 90+ for up here) than five yrs ago. 2012 was about a month shorter and started to break-down by July. In August things were already back to green and moist. I'd say '88 was 2.5 mos vs '12 at 1.5 mos in duration. I hate drought tbh - worst climo by far!

[Tom]

JAMSTEC on board with a warm/wet Spring...

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summer...looks hot and mainly dry

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1feb2017.gif

[Tom]

NASA also seems very warm this Spring/Summer...following the theme of the overall LRC pattern with a cold west and warm east...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

As an El Nino develops this summer, may things be changing later in the Summer???  Wetter???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png

[NEJeremy]

Weren't there some models showing snow into May? I know probably not realistic (even though it happened a few years ago), and I don't want that to happen. The idea being that it was supposed to be colder longer this winter and spring. I'm guessing that's all out the window now it looks like

[Tom]

Weren't there some models showing snow into May? I know probably not realistic (even though it happened a few years ago), and I don't want that to happen. The idea being that it was supposed to be colder longer this winter and spring. I'm guessing that's all out the window now it looks like

I believe that was the Brazilian.  It still does show it from time to time on single runs.  You never know.  There may be a rogue Spring storm late March into April out in the Plains where they typically form.  Once we get into the middle part of Spring I think a lot of us will torch.

 

Once we get past mid March, Spring will have sprung...the CPC SST analog forecast says a colder Spring but I'm not buying that now.

[Niko]

By mid March, I am so ready for Spring. No snow is wanted by that point of time and I am sure a lot of posters feel that way as well. We had all of January and February to have fun tracking big winterstorms in the Winter, not now, when Spring arrives. Also, so many negative factors are combined when having a snowstorm in the Springtime, such as high sun angle, longer days, snow not lasting otg as long as it would in the Winter and etc and etc. Tbh, I am surprised that I am sitting on 34.1" thus far this winter season because the way this winter has been trailing along, I should have been somewhere between 10-15". Idk, maybe, early much will produce the "Big One", who knows. One thing is for sure, it has been one heck of a mild winter.

[gosaints]

By mid March, I am so ready for Spring. No snow is wanted by that point of time and I am sure a lot of posters feel that way as well. We had all of January and February to have fun tracking big winterstorms in the Winter, not now, when Spring arrives. Also, so many negative factors are combined when having a snowstorm in the Springtime, such as high sun angle, longer days, snow not lasting otg as long as it would in the Winter and etc and etc. Tbh, I am surprised that I am sitting on 34.1" thus far this winter season because the way this winter has been trailing along, I should have been somewhere between 10-15". Idk, maybe, early much will produce the "Big One", who knows. One thing is for sure, it has been one heck of a mild winter.

Sun angle over played.  

[Tom]

CPC's Feb Spring Outlook...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

Summer....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif

[Tom]

JMA monthlies for the Spring months are below...

[jaster220]

Sun angle over played.  

 

Maybe at your arctic latitude it is, lol. He's in SEMI and trust me, sun here may not stop snow from falling and accumulating, but it'll kill what's OTG in a NY minute!

[jaster220]

JMA monthlies for the Spring months are below...

 

Nice Tom. March chilly, then game on for April & May. Can't wait

[Tom]

As we count down the last days of met Winter, Spring is around the corner.  It may be a bit delayed during the first couple weeks of March but I imagine it will come on strong 2nd half of March.  Later this week, I will post more forecasts from the Canadian and CPC issues their forecast around the 6th.

[clintbeed1993]

We didn't have a winter this year.  Not a single snowstorm.  Not 1 storm with more than 3 inches in my area.  Season total is probably around 12 inches.  That has to be top 10 least snow.  It's been a complete nightmare.  Spring can't get here soon enough.

[Jaycee]

Maybe we could do a photo contest this year for severe weather? It'll act as an incentive to keep this board active, and not insanely boring like it is around that time normally. Severe thunderstorms themselves are definitely some of the most interesting things to watch, and I think it'd be cool to have a contest on who can snag the best one this year. Just a suggestion!

[Snowlover76]

Watch our severe season the bed too.

[Tom]

The CanSIPS 3-month avg for the Spring and Summer...

 

Spring...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

Summer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_4.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017030100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_4.png

[gimmesnow]

Well it looks like I'm in for a nice summer. Hopefully that translates into a good winter. Three bad ones in a row, I don't know if I can take that.

[Tom]

CPC's updated SST CA Forecasts for the Spring months...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/cat2m_anom.0.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/caprec_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

Summer Months...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201702/caprec_anom.3.gif

[Tom]

NASA's updated March run suggests a warm Spring and cooler summer in the heartland...it's interesting that the CFSv2 is also suggest a wetter/cooler central CONUS.

 

April/May/June...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

June/July/August...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

[Tom]

Noticing a similar theme with a pool of cool air being forecast for the Spring months.  This actually fits how the LRC pattern developed back in Oct/Nov.  Several climate models are showing colder air for the northern tier/Rockies/PAC NW.  I'm not sure how much cooler it will be for the central Plains, but if the pattern turns wet it could actually end up right.

 

Spring...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

 

Summer...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1mar2017.gif

[Niko]

Hoping for a dry, warm Spring and a hot, dry Summer. Although, a few rumbles of severe weather would be nice.

[Tom]

JMA Seasonal suggesting a warm second half of Spring into June over much of our sub-forum...

 

 

[jaster220]

JMA Seasonal suggesting a warm second half of Spring into June over much of our sub-forum...

 

:) Where do I sign?

[Tom]

:) Where do I sign?

CPC in agreement...

[OKwx2k4]

You all can keep the heat up there this summer. I'm not interested.

[jaster220]

You all can keep the heat up there this summer. I'm not interested.

 

My sis was in the Army stationed at Fort Sill in Lawton summer of 1980 (hottest on record?) and her image of OK is pretty ugly because of that!

[OKwx2k4]

My sis was in the Army stationed at Fort Sill in Lawton summer of 1980 (hottest on record?) and her image of OK is pretty ugly because of that!

The only thing I ever liked about Western OK or SW OK is the quartz and red granite mountains out there. The rest is ugly, hot, dry and windy. Eastern Oklahoma is the place for me. Hills and trees. Can't live without topography. It's cooler but more humid over here though.

[OKwx2k4]

1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year.

[jaster220]

1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year.

 

So I heard. As hot as 2010 was for the DFW region, the next year was worse and so dry all the reservoirs where I was living dried up terribly. That would've been a doubly miserable summer for a Michigander like myself who's accustomed to plenty of lush green and deep blues of the GL's state in the warm season. Really glad I missed that. It does seem it was the precursor to our own heatwave/drought of 2012 which for this region was the worst since the biggie of '88. Drought seems to be an unfortunate reality of our wx cycles in nature but I can't think of one good thing related to that wx phenomena tbh.

[Tom]

ECMWF ensemble outlook for April...this looks nice...

 

[Tom]

The latest CanSIPS run for Summer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_3.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_3.png

[Minny_Weather]

1934 and 1980 were tied for hottest ever until 2011 beat them both by 2 degrees. 2011 sucked. There's just no other way of putting it. It was literally oppressive to do anything that year.

Tell me about it. I lived in Houston in 2011 and I was in marching band. One practice, the actual temp was 108°. We practiced on an asphalt field. One person brought out a thermometer. We were basically practicing in a humid 135°.

[Tom]

The latest CFSv2 trends for May...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201705.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201705.gif

[Tom]

CPC's latest run of the SST analog package suggesting troughiness in the central CONUS through June...where the wet pattern continues...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cahgt_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/caprec_anom.0.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cat2m_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Summer...it continues...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cahgt_anom.2.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/caprec_anom.2.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201703/cat2m_anom.2.gif

[Tom]

NASA's recent run still showing a cooler than normal pattern for the central CONUS through Spring/Summer...likely a wet pattern.  I really wonder if the LRC's ridge will fight back in the heart of Summer.  It may be pushed farther south and/or east which which would allow the Plains to escape the worst of the heat this summer.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

[Tom]

The latest run on the NMME suite is suggesting a much warmer look and drier...not buying it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png

[WBadgersW]

Maybe we could do a photo contest this year for severe weather? It'll act as an incentive to keep this board active, and not insanely boring like it is around that time normally. Severe thunderstorms themselves are definitely some of the most interesting things to watch, and I think it'd be cool to have a contest on who can snag the best one this year. Just a suggestion!

I like this idea

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC is running hot and wet for the majority of our sub forum.  If its going to be wet, I doubt we have extended heat waves.  I'm sure there will be some periods of hot/muggy weather but I'm not buying into any extended heat waves just yet.  Maybe down to the southeastern part of the U.S.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif