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2017 Spring/Summer Outlook


Tom

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CFSv2 trends...wet/cool...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201705.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201705.gif

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CPC has updated their seasonal outlook and its carving out what seems to me would be a trough in the central CONUS.  Could the Lakes finally dry out???

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

Summer looks warm still...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

 

Wet over the Rockies...active Monsoon???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

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CPC's thinking the trough over the central CONUS persists just before the MDW holiday weekend when I think the ridge may pop right in time to kick off the summer season.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

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JMA Seasonal suggesting a warm second half of Spring into June over much of our sub-forum...

 

What happened to this JMA??? :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC has updated their seasonal outlook and its carving out what seems to me would be a trough in the central CONUS.  Could the Lakes finally dry out???

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

Summer looks warm still...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

 

Wet over the Rockies...active Monsoon???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

Slightly above normal for SMI actually works just fine. Don't need OkWx sharing his hotness with us up here, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like JB has expanded his pocket of normal temps to the east and pretty much covers our entire sub forum.  I'll take it.  I think it makes sense also given the pattern that has set up and where we are heading.

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CanSIPS Summer outlook...where do I sign???

 

Temps...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017050100/cansips_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

 

Precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017050100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png

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CPC's SST CA Summer Outlook...wet & cool theme for the central CONUS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/cat2m_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/caprec_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

 

Sneak Peak into the early Autumn....very cold Eurasia and hints of it in central N.A...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

 

 

 

Very snowy early on in Eurasia...active storm track in the central CONUS???

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201704/caprec_anom.3.gif

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Nearly every single global climate model is indicating a cooler/wetter summer for the majority of our sub forum...lovin' it

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

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The latest NMME run is trending towards the other models and coming into reality for the summer.  Here was it's previous run...

 

Last run...blow torch

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017040800/nmme_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

 

Current run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017050800/nmme_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

 

 

 

Not as much precip which I do not believe...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2017050800/nmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

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Yeah. I'd look for more precip in NE and E TX through AR, LA and NW MS in that pattern. Even in NW flow, which is assumed by the temperature pattern, I'd not have a ton of humidity and there should be regular breaks this summer or cool down periods here.

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JAMSTEC is running the warmest of the bunch, but still trying to show some hints of "cooler" in the midsection of the nation...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

CPC trended cooler/wetter for the Summer season in the Plains states.  I see no reason why it wouldn't.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

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CPC trended cooler/wetter for the Summer season in the Plains states.  I see no reason why it wouldn't.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

That would be great!! Just as long as we see some warmer periods between, which we should. This should make for a nice growing season. 

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TWC's Summer Forecast...when are they ever not warm biased???

 

DANvNPqVYAE-TUg.jpg

Looks close to CPC, yes?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • 3 weeks later...

The latest CPC SST CA 500mb forecast for summer still suggesting a trough over the central/eastern CONUS with a ridge off the west coast.  Not really following this year's LRC.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cahgt_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

Pockets of wetness showing up as well...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.0.gif

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NASA run still advertising a cooler/wetter summer for the heartland...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

 

 

 

Autumn...???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

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JAMSTEC still thinks it will be a hot/wet Midwest/Lakes region but drier the farther west/south you go...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif

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JMA seasonal came out today and here are the maps for July-Sept.  Overall, it's signaling for a warmer July for most and a wet start to the monsoon season out here in the desert SW and inter-mountain west.  We are going to need the precip after the coming long term ridge that looks to get established around these parts.

 

By August, a reversal in the pattern sets up esp along the west coast of N.A. and I'm noticing both the JMA/CFSv2 have a colder look near the Archipelago Region of Canada.

 

As we head into Sept, notice that ridge popping in the NE PAC and trough near the Aleutians and over the Pole.  The CFSv2 is also signaling a wetter/cooler Sept for many of us on here.  

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Parts of the mid summer may get pretty warm but it looks like it should end abruptly, maybe even before we get into fall this year. I'm still pretty optimistic about the worst of it not lasting TOO long.

 

Based on the LRC, a cool late summer/early fall could be a sign of the winter to come right?

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Parts of the mid summer may get pretty warm but it looks like it should end abruptly, maybe even before we get into fall this year. I'm still pretty optimistic about the worst of it not lasting TOO long.

 

Based on the LRC, a cool late summer/early fall could be a sign of the winter to come right?

You start seeing parts of the new LRC in mid/late Sept in the far northern latitudes but as you get into the 1st week of October it is a brand new pattern that begins.

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Cant believe Summer starts next week. I think Wednesday June 21st at 12:32pm. Before ya know it, Autumn will be here. Geez! Time really flies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

So far, its been an average Summer in SEMI. Actually, running a tad below normal in terms of "Water", if you can believe that. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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