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2017 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#51
Tom

Posted 01 May 2017 - 09:53 AM

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CanSIPS Summer outlook...where do I sign???

 

Temps...

 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

 

Precip...

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png



#52
james1976

Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:26 AM

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That looks nice. Id love a summer with lots of 70s. Perfect for grilling out and campfires.
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#53
Tom

Posted 05 May 2017 - 05:54 PM

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CPC's SST CA Summer Outlook...wet & cool theme for the central CONUS...

 

cat2m_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

caprec_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

 

Sneak Peak into the early Autumn....very cold Eurasia and hints of it in central N.A...

 

cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

 

 

 

Very snowy early on in Eurasia...active storm track in the central CONUS???

 

 

 

caprec_anom.3.gif



#54
Tom

Posted 07 May 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Nearly every single global climate model is indicating a cooler/wetter summer for the majority of our sub forum...lovin' it

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png


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#55
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 May 2017 - 11:43 PM

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Can't beat that. It is looking kinda likely that I see a short cool summer this year. I love it.
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#56
Tom

Posted 08 May 2017 - 06:44 AM

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The latest NMME run is trending towards the other models and coming into reality for the summer.  Here was it's previous run...

 

Last run...blow torch

 

nmme_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

 

Current run...

 

nmme_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

 

 

 

Not as much precip which I do not believe...

 

nmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png



#57
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 May 2017 - 07:32 AM

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Yeah. I'd look for more precip in NE and E TX through AR, LA and NW MS in that pattern. Even in NW flow, which is assumed by the temperature pattern, I'd not have a ton of humidity and there should be regular breaks this summer or cool down periods here.

#58
james1976

Posted 09 May 2017 - 07:50 PM

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Loving the potential. Im all down for cooler/wetter. Let it carry into fall/winter. Gonna be fun to follow. Still havent had an overly warm/humid day this spring and its almost mid-May.

#59
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:59 AM

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JAMSTEC is running the warmest of the bunch, but still trying to show some hints of "cooler" in the midsection of the nation...

 

temp2.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

tprep.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif



#60
Tom

Posted 18 May 2017 - 06:07 AM

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CPC trended cooler/wetter for the Summer season in the Plains states.  I see no reason why it wouldn't.

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif


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#61
gabel23

Posted 18 May 2017 - 07:27 AM

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CPC trended cooler/wetter for the Summer season in the Plains states.  I see no reason why it wouldn't.

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif

That would be great!! Just as long as we see some warmer periods between, which we should. This should make for a nice growing season. 


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#62
Tom

Posted 19 May 2017 - 04:55 PM

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TWC's Summer Forecast...when are they ever not warm biased???

 

DANvNPqVYAE-TUg.jpg



#63
jaster220

Posted 19 May 2017 - 06:18 PM

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TWC's Summer Forecast...when are they ever not warm biased???
 
DANvNPqVYAE-TUg.jpg


Looks close to CPC, yes?

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#64
Tom

Posted 19 May 2017 - 06:42 PM

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Looks close to CPC, yes?


Yup, darn close. I think the inter-mountain west and a large part of the central US will be solidly below normal.

#65
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 May 2017 - 03:04 PM

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Yup, darn close. I think the inter-mountain west and a large part of the central US will be solidly below normal.


I agree 100 percent.

#66
Tom

Posted 05 June 2017 - 05:21 AM

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The latest CPC SST CA 500mb forecast for summer still suggesting a trough over the central/eastern CONUS with a ridge off the west coast.  Not really following this year's LRC.

 

 

cahgt_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

cat2m_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

Pockets of wetness showing up as well...

 

caprec_anom.0.gif



#67
Tom

Posted 08 June 2017 - 11:04 AM

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NASA run still advertising a cooler/wetter summer for the heartland...

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

 

 

 

Autumn...???

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png



#68
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 05:26 AM

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JAMSTEC still thinks it will be a hot/wet Midwest/Lakes region but drier the farther west/south you go...

 

temp2.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif

 

tprep.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif



#69
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 05:54 AM

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JMA seasonal came out today and here are the maps for July-Sept.  Overall, it's signaling for a warmer July for most and a wet start to the monsoon season out here in the desert SW and inter-mountain west.  We are going to need the precip after the coming long term ridge that looks to get established around these parts.

 

By August, a reversal in the pattern sets up esp along the west coast of N.A. and I'm noticing both the JMA/CFSv2 have a colder look near the Archipelago Region of Canada.

 

As we head into Sept, notice that ridge popping in the NE PAC and trough near the Aleutians and over the Pole.  The CFSv2 is also signaling a wetter/cooler Sept for many of us on here.  



#70
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 June 2017 - 08:30 AM

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Parts of the mid summer may get pretty warm but it looks like it should end abruptly, maybe even before we get into fall this year. I'm still pretty optimistic about the worst of it not lasting TOO long.

Based on the LRC, a cool late summer/early fall could be a sign of the winter to come right?

#71
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 09:12 AM

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Parts of the mid summer may get pretty warm but it looks like it should end abruptly, maybe even before we get into fall this year. I'm still pretty optimistic about the worst of it not lasting TOO long.

Based on the LRC, a cool late summer/early fall could be a sign of the winter to come right?

You start seeing parts of the new LRC in mid/late Sept in the far northern latitudes but as you get into the 1st week of October it is a brand new pattern that begins.



#72
Niko

Posted 17 June 2017 - 01:32 PM

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Cant believe Summer starts next week. I think Wednesday June 21st at 12:32pm. Before ya know it, Autumn will be here. Geez! Time really flies.


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#73
GDR

Posted 26 June 2017 - 07:33 PM

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?
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#74
Niko

Posted 14 July 2017 - 01:47 PM

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So far, its been an average Summer in SEMI. Actually, running a tad below normal in terms of "Water", if you can believe that. :blink: