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February 7th/8th Possible Major Winter Storm???

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#51
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 07:05 AM

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06z GEFS also trended with more HP...

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_18.png

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_20.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_19.png



#52
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 07:16 AM

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Some posters on here will get crushed from snow!!



#53
Tony

Posted 03 February 2017 - 07:21 AM

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Some posters on here will get crushed from snow!!

Some will get crushed with disappointment.


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#54
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 07:26 AM

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I've been noticing subtle, but important small changes each run on the GFS.  Firstly, the small piece of energy swinging off of a spinning Aleutian system that tracks towards CA has been slowing every so slightly each run.  

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_8.png

 

The little ball of energy (552 thickness) in the E PAC eventually merges with the closed low off the OR/WA coast.  This closed low has also been trending farther south as well as the northern branch has been pressing every so slightly.

 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_14.png

 

 

The slower that PAC wave comes on shore, the better chance of the northern branch to press south which can shift the storm track south.  That's what I'm going to pay attention to going forward.


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#55
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:00 AM

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12z GFS back north again it looks like...



#56
Snowshoe

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:05 AM

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988 over Chicago at hour 102


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#57
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:07 AM

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988 over Chicago at hour 102

Yup, looks like I will be tracking my barometer instead of measuring how many inches of snow will be falling... :wacko:



#58
Snowshoe

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:08 AM

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Rain up north to Green Bay and most of lower MI.


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#59
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Looks like the only chance of seeing any snow around here is when this storm really wraps up and the defo band moves through IA/IL...



#60
Snowshoe

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Later phase keeping it slightly warmer?


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#61
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:10 AM

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d**n, 982mb near DTW...


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#62
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Later phase keeping it slightly warmer?

Looks like it, but that can easily change as this PAC wave gets better sampling.  Past experience tracking these type of rapidly intensifying storms is that they can wobble and it would mean a world of difference up by you.


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#63
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:13 AM

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12z GFS...might break that streak Tony!  LOL...



#64
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 10:17 AM

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12z Euro looks very similar to the GFS....



#65
gosaints

Posted 03 February 2017 - 10:17 AM

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ecmwf_T850_us_5.png



#66
Snoorani

Posted 03 February 2017 - 10:43 AM

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I still believe this will go south enough still 4 days left. Lets hope!!
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#67
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 10:46 AM

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I still believe this will go south enough still 4 days left. Lets hope!!


I think it's pretty much locked on an upper Midwest/Lakes storm to get they brunt of the snow.

#68
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2017 - 10:56 AM

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Euro shows virtually no backside snow.

#69
Snoorani

Posted 03 February 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Is the GFS the only model showing decent backside snow?

#70
gosaints

Posted 03 February 2017 - 11:21 AM

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Is the GFS the only model showing decent backside snow?

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png



#71
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 February 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Thermals a definite concern at the start on the Euro and GFS...unless you're in the north woods.

#72
GDR

Posted 03 February 2017 - 12:04 PM

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Looks like some cold rain

#73
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 12:39 PM

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"Euro went south with the SLP. 996mb over central IN at 120hrs to 979mb over Watertown NY at 144hrs."

Was this last night's Euro?? Anyone have that map by chance?? Need one more piece of eye-candy before another 10 mos of warmth.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#74
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 12:52 PM

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I see the Euro went south. European models vs. GFS but have noticed the GFS has been trending south as well.


"Euro went south with the SLP. 996mb over central IN at 120hrs to 979mb over Watertown NY at 144hrs."

Any maps of this??

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#75
Tony

Posted 03 February 2017 - 12:59 PM

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12z GFS...might break that streak Tony!  LOL...

Backside snows generally don't work out so I will say the streak will stay alive.



#76
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 February 2017 - 01:04 PM

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12z GEFS shows a pretty tight cluster through NW IL to the southern part of LM. A few low to mid 980s in there too.

Attached Files


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#77
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 01:26 PM

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"00z GFS...insisting north camp...."

@ Tom - looked back at the clipper thread. GFS's first adjustment south was inside of 100 hrs but it was low on snow amounts. Then it bounced around on SN amnts until maybe 60 hrs out when it had an accurate portrayal. Between 3 & 2 days out it had caught on. With the Fujiwara scenario and all the waves in play and moving parts, I could envision a late game rally for this storm tbh. 6z GEFS showed those HP's getting into the 1030's. Wouldn't take a ton to make this much more interesting at our latitude.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 01:31 PM

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GRR AFD


LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017

It seems increasingly likely that significant winter impacts will
occur Tuesday into Wednesday. Although forecast certainty with
details remains low at this time, current model trends suggest
freezing rain over our central and northern counties Tuesday and
thunderstorms not out of the question near I-94. What seems more
certain is snow and blowing snow with falling temperature Wednesday.

The 12Z models (ECMWF, GFS, GFS ensemble mean, Parallel GFS) and the
00Z ECMWF ensemble have come into better agreement. The storm center
crosses the Chicago area by Tuesday evening then crosses central
Lake Huron. It deepens rapidly with the upper level wave going
negative tilt. The Western Region situational awareness table shows
from 1985 to 2012 from Jan 28th through Feb 18th, pressure this low
occurs once about every 30 years. This does not necessarily mean the
storm itself will be that historic because other factors need to
come into play first.

The storm is now near 35N and 155W and will merge with a system
currently stalled off the coast of the state of Washington by
Saturday evening. It then merges out of the Rockies into western
Plains on Monday. By then a 140-150 knot southern stream jet core
digs into the back side of the upper wave as a 160 knot jet departs
the coast of Maine. This creates considerable upper divergence which
allows the upper wave to go negative tilt over Michigan by
Wednesday.

Gulf moisture will surge northward into Michigan Tuesday ahead of
the storm and precipitable water values surge to over 0.75 inches by
midday Wednesday. This type of moisture happens once in about 5
years for this particular time of year (again this refers only to
one aspect...the moisture...not the entire storm).

The surge of warm moist air Tuesday may lead to a significant
freezing rain event. The CIPs analogs are showing the percent chance
for freezing rain for at least 3 hours is between 40 and 50 percent
between I-94 and I-96 Tuesday.There is also a 60 to 70 percent
chance of at least 4" of snow over our western row of continues
during the lake effect phase the storm. Beyond all of that we would
expect winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph on Wednesday as
the cold air comes back in. This will mean blowing and drifting snow
as temperatures fall from near freezing at midnight Tuesday night to
the lower 20s by Wednesday afternoon, making roads increasingly
slippery during the day.

The track of the storm is crucial. The farther north it tracks on
Tuesday, the less the threat of freezing rain and more of a threat
for thunderstorms affecting far southern Michigan. Lake effect snow
is nearly certain Wednesday - likely over 4 inches in our western
counties so that will mean considerable blowing and drifting.

The storm departs Thursday but lake effect will likely continue
through the day ending Thursday evening. Quiet weather is expected
Friday.

&&

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#79
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 01:35 PM

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"00z GFS...insisting north camp...."

@ Tom - looked back at the clipper thread. GFS's first adjustment south was inside of 100 hrs but it was low on snow amounts. Then it bounced around on SN amnts until maybe 60 hrs out when it had an accurate portrayal. Between 3 & 2 days out it had caught on. With the Fujiwara scenario and all the waves in play and moving parts, I could envision a late game rally for this storm tbh. 6z GEFS showed those HP's getting into the 1030's. Wouldn't take a ton to make this much more interesting at our latitude.

When you see the 12z EPS, you will lose any hope of this tracking south.  Everything seems to be indicating a Northwoods special.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png


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#80
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:16 PM

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18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX...

 

 



#81
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:21 PM

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Warm tongue shooting temps near 60F here on Tuesday....

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_17.png


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#82
gosaints

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:22 PM

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Warm tongue shooting temps near 60F here on Tuesday....

gfs_T2m_ncus_17.png


If the.weenie gfs runs play out the severe will be interesting

#83
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:23 PM

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Down into the teens the next day...ouch, that's not gonna feel good after a "mini" torch...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png



#84
Tony

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:32 PM

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The GFS can have the "pitty backend snow" and send it somewhere else. It's all or none for me at this point of the winter.


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#85
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:34 PM

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Spring-like extremes sheesh! Would perfectly portray the season in mby actually. Torch>>>>LES. How it kicked-off in Nov and looks to continue the theme. Considering a short work day Wed to chase farther north. Wanna see legit bliz conditions if any way possible. Once in 30 yrs on the table with this...By the time it comes back around I won't be chasing anything but my mis-placed dentures
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#86
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:36 PM

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Down into the teens the next day...ouch, that's not gonna feel good after a "mini" torch...

gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png


Cruelist of fates for those who see nada - uggh!!

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:45 PM

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18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX...


Op's catching up with ens's. Wowza! @ the potential dynamics with this!

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 February 2017 - 02:57 PM

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MPX says 'meh' for the Twin Cities. They throw out a very very early 2-4" type snow for the metro, but they'll start really guessing tomorrow. Shouldn't take long to burn off when the torch arrives later next week.

#89
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:02 PM

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MPX says 'meh' for the Twin Cities. They throw out a very very early 2-4" type snow for the metro, but they'll start really guessing tomorrow. Shouldn't take long to burn off when the torch arrives later next week.


So much mimicks last winter's big storm..Too warm and too late phasing thus delivering it's best to Ontario well north of the populated regions.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:13 PM

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18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX...


At least gives N IN something plastered to vertical surfaces no doubt.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#91
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:14 PM

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Looking forward towards those winds howling. I am expecting gusts to 40 and 50 mph. :)


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#92
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:21 PM

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@ Jaster, you should do well with LES behind the system on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprise if ya get a couple of inches along with blowing and drifting snow.


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#93
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:50 PM

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GFS the past 2 winter's has repeatedly flashed the elusive bombed storm over Lk Huron..Blind squirrel time??




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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 04:38 PM

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GFS the past 2 winter's has repeatedly flashed the elusive bombed storm over Lk Huron..Blind squirrel time??

attachicon.gifpost-16-1486138391_thumb.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

:D



#95
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Interesting path of the low on the 0z GFS. From S/C MN to SW MI to Green Bay. Either way, the heavy snow is quite a bit farther north than one would normally expect relative to the low. Northwoods Special.

#96
Hoosier

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:13 PM

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Interesting path of the low on the 0z GFS. From S/C MN to SW MI to Green Bay. Either way, the heavy snow is quite a bit farther north than one would normally expect relative to the low. Northwoods Special.


Whenever there's a "bouncy" low solution, I take it as a sign that the model is having issues resolving the energy/phasing.
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#97
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:25 PM

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Whenever there's a "bouncy" low solution, I take it as a sign that the model is having issues resolving the energy/phasing.


Long ways from sampled, correct?

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:39 PM

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973mb with winds ripping across S Lk Mich. Should be interesting at the work place Wed am.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#99
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 08:44 PM

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973mb with winds ripping across S Lk Mich. Should be interesting at the work place Wed am.

attachicon.gifgfs_T850_us_20.png

Brrrr. :) Arctic Express in the works.



#100
jaster220

Posted 04 February 2017 - 06:15 AM

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From APX

 

 

Another round of snow arrives tonight with some lake effect continuing into Sunday. While many details are still fuzzy, confidence is increasing in a potentially significant winter storm for Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll continue to monitor and provide updates as necessary on this system.

 

 

Looking more likely I'd have to go all the way to the "tip-o-the-mitt" region if I want to see the real deal. That may not be an option. March 5th, 2012 conveniently fell on a Friday night which made a trip to the Northland a perfect option. :)  I remember my wife was a bit nervous that we couldn't see the highway due to the massive flakes and tween towns up north there's nothing but dark forest. It was highway M72 which was my old work commute and I re-assured her that I knew every curve and slope blind-folded so not to worry. Had to have been 8+ inches on the state hgwy but we made it. Only storm I've ever experienced where all the motels filled up due to travelers having to "hunker down". Some areas on the west side of TC had 24" by noon the following day. LOL, 12 days later downstate in GR, it hit 87º

 

This season has a bunch of similarities to that one if you ask me. :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."