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February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Tom

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After what has been an eternity of track any winter storms of significance for our sub forum, Mother Nature seems to be turning the corner.  Who will get rocked???  Will this storm spin up to be a major???  Let's discuss...

 

00z EPS still liking NE/IA/MN/WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021900/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021900/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

 

 

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That low moving across the international border on Wed may ultimately decide where the Friday system tracks. A stronger and more southerly Wed low will lead to a more southerly Friday system. The last few runs of the GFS have a weaker/north Wed low and hence the Friday system has been inching north....more like the GEM and Euro.

 

It's weird tracking a potential monster snowstorm when it's going to be in the mid 60s today.

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That low moving across the international border on Wed may ultimately decide where the Friday system tracks. A stronger and more southerly Wed low will lead to a more southerly Friday system. The last few runs of the GFS have a weaker/north Wed low and hence the Friday system has been inching north....more like the GEM and Euro.

 

It's weird tracking a potential monster snowstorm when it's going to be in the mid 60s today.

Agree.  That storm will be somewhat of a player as to where the storm will track.  Looks like it will drag a cold front/boundary and that is where the frontogenisis develops.  Although, the 00z Euro has a 997mb Wed system in N WI and the storm cuts.

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Western forum...Nice hit, once again. Is it April yet? April's gonna rock!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I expect this storm to be west of SEMI and provide wind, rain and thunderstorms. Colder air will follow. Afterwards, a few flurries possible as the low departs. Plain and simple. :wacko:

 

Tbh: I would not mind experiencing a few rumbles of thunder.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The LRC's long-wave ridge in the plains causes it to be a weaker storm as it ejects, but then as has been the case at times this season, storms intensify as they track towards the Lakes.  Storm goes neg tilt right around IL/IA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_z500_vort_us_23.png

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Here's the big difference between GEM/GFS.

 

GEM already has the low down to 986 at HR 102:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017021912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

GFS digs it farther south and is 10 mb weaker:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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GEM Ensembles are quite a bit SE of the OP and in pretty good agreement. Look similar to GFS:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017021912_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_120.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017021912_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_132.png

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I expect this storm to be west of SEMI and provide wind, rain and thunderstorms. Colder air will follow. Afterwards, a few flurries possible as the low departs. Plain and simple. :wacko:

 

Tbh: I would not mind experiencing a few rumbles of thunder.

It's our payback year, but we'll have flakes flying in spring when I least want to see them!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's our payback year, but we'll have flakes flying in spring when I least want to see them!

Watch us get snowstorms in March and April!!! :lol: :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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