February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Money]

btw GFS will be south of 18z. 

[gosaints]

Without a doubt. Has had a different solution the last 4 runs

[gosaints]

Looks pretty warm

[St Paul Storm]

Weak sauce, even though its 1mb stronger at 114.

[Money]

GEM still on the north side of things but it def. shifted SE some.

 

HR 120 has a 993 L in centrall IA 

[gosaints]

Weak sauce, even though its 1mb stronger at 114.

Not as weenie for sure... Similar track

[St Paul Storm]

Not as weenie for sure... Similar track

Still a nice hit down there for sure. One thing that has been consistent on the models is a nasty gradient in the northern edge. Not a good place to be.

[gosaints]

Still a nice hit down there for sure.

For sure...

[Money]

0z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022000/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

Totals in the jack zone backed off a good 8 inches

[Money]

GEM HR 102:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022000/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_17.png

[Money]

Totals in the jack zone backed off a good 8 inches

 

There's some places in west/central WI that get 18-20 or so. 

[Money]

GEM ends up tracking it to Milwaukee or so. Different path than GFS but same outcome overall:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022000/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png

[gosaints]

There's some places in west/central WI that get 18-20 or so.

 

Oh so 4-6 there then

[bud2380]

The totals on this run are much more realistic than the ridiculous totals that have been showing up for days. Regardless the path overall has been pretty consistent all weekend. Yes some variation north/south but not drastic.

[Money]

Oh so 4-6 there then

 

GEM hits you pretty good. 10-12+. Looks decent for over here as well, 6-8 ish. Much farther south than 12z 

[gosaints]

GEM hits you pretty good. 10-12+. Looks decent for over here as well, 6-8 ish. Much farther south than 12z

 

So my milwaukee landmark was on point. Although ggem eventually spins it to green bay

[Money]

So my milwaukee landmark was on point. Although ggem eventually spins it to green bay

 

Yeah, it looks like it occludes and spins around the area for a bit. Milwaukee looks like a decent call tho so far. A lot of ball game left 

[bud2380]

GFS still has the secondary system next Sunday. Good hit for my area. That won't last

[Money]

GFS still has the secondary system next Sunday. Good hit for my area. That won't last

 

Everyone east of NE gets pretty much 6+ inches of snow over the next week on this run.

[gosaints]

Yeah, it looks like it occludes and spins around the area for a bit. Milwaukee looks like a decent call tho so far. A lot of ball game left

 

The back and forth makes the runs interesting.. Just hope it doesnt turn into a lame a** turd

[Money]

The back and forth makes the runs interesting.. Just hope it doesnt turn into a lame a** turd

 

Especially when you are on the edge. Sharp edge on both sides 

[Money]

GEM ensembles are still way south of the OP. Something's gotta give on that.

 

HR 120:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017022000_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_120.png

[Money]

That being said...here's the GEM snow map:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022000/138/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Ukie (2nd best model statistically) still feeling the south camp:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[bud2380]

UK still way way south

[Bellona]

With UK being south and GEM being north...I say split the difference and u get close to gfs track.

[gosaints]

Ukie (2nd best model statistically) still feeling the south camp:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

Feeling?? Hell that would be exhaust in your backyard... Ukie solid 500 mb inside of 72 hours right? At the surface it doesnt do as well

[Steblow]

Hopefully Euro brings it up to Lake Winnebago.

 

And- Hopefully come tomorrow night  we have a little tighter cluster of track

[Money]

Hopefully Euro brings it up to Lake Winnebago.

 

And- Hopefully come tomorrow night  we have a little tighter cluster of track

 

missed you.

 

how you been

[Steblow]

missed you.

 

how you been

 

ups and downs of life.. you know...yeah we had some good times..wx boards are not the same.

[Money]

ups and downs of life.. you know...yeah we had some good times..wx boards are not the same.

 

I hear ya. What ever happened to wisconsinwx or w/e his name was?

[Steblow]

I hear ya. What ever happened to wisconsinwx or w/e his name was?

 

work and ballroom dancing..  and the wx has been as eventful as the NBA All Star Game over the last 3 yrs here.

[Money]

work and ballroom dancing..  and the wx has been as eventful as the NBA All Star Game over the last 3 yrs here.

 

game tonight was a joke but Giannis

 

Crazy to see Cousins get traded right after tho 

[Money]

Feeling?? Hell that would be exhaust in your backyard... Ukie solid 500 mb inside of 72 hours right? At the surface it doesnt do as well

 

Not sure, I just remember seeing a chart showing it had the 2nd best verification scores.

 

Out of 21 GFS ensembles I count 4 that are NW of the OP. Several really don't have a storm and the others look like UKIE/GEM ensembles.

[james1976]

Canadian loves snow. Nothing new there

[gosaints]

Not sure, I just remember seeing a chart showing it had the 2nd best verification scores.

 

Out of 21 GFS ensembles I count 4 that are NW of the OP. Several really don't have a storm and the others look like UKIE/GEM ensembles.

The cluster at 114 supports the op. At that point at least 9 that would be north and west of the op with other very similar. Ya the ones out in pennsylvania are gonna skew the mean a bit.

 

I think your best bet is more of a bowling ball once the low reaches certain latitude which is probably a possibility

[Money]

The cluster at 114 supports the op. At that point at least 9 that would be north and west of the op with other very similar. Ya the ones out in pennsylvania are gonna skew the mean a bit

 

I'm looking at the snowfall maps for each run. 

 

There's several that actually crush eastern IA/Chicago good. Most of the maps are southeast of OP with a few being NW and 3 members showing 2 inches at best. 

[james1976]

Im feeling pretty good where Im at. Kinda middle of all the possibilities right now.

[Money]

Euro similar to past runs. Low tracks into eastern WI or so.

 

10-12+ for eastern MN