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March 2014 Observations & Discussion

March Plains Midwest Snow Thunderstrom Winter Spring Rain Blizzard
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#1
clintbeed1993

Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:05 AM

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How will the cruddy winter of 2013/2014 end?  Will the plains finally see that monster snowstorm we have been waiting for?  How will spring start?  March could be a very interesting month!

 

GFS is showing a snow event during the first week of March.  Wouldn't surprise me to see a large trough come out of the 4 corners and produce a storm during that time.  LRC would indicate around March 4th for that.  We should probably be hoping for a Colorado Low in Nebraska/Iowa.  The current models are wanting to show yet another Panhandle Hook storm, which of course misses us to the East.  We really need a nice bowling bowl Colorado Low to give us that monster snowstorm we have all been waiting for.

 

I know I'm not alone in saying this:  If we don't get a monster snowstorm it might as well just warm up and be spring.  I am tired of these 1-3 inch snows.  I say go big or go home winter!  I am just as ready for severe weather season and tornado chasing.  Let's see what March of 2014 has in store!  Thoughts??

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#2
Sludge

Posted 23 February 2014 - 11:58 AM

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I am done  lol  lets move on to spring



#3
clintbeed1993

Posted 23 February 2014 - 12:40 PM

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I am done  lol  lets move on to spring

 

 

I'm giving this winter one more chance to "put out".  If the storm next weekend doesn't pan out, let's put a giant fork in this God awful winter.



#4
NebraskaWX

Posted 23 February 2014 - 02:29 PM

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I would prefer an early start to severe wx season. Storms are way more fun to track IMO. I think we get it good this year, as this year resembles the 2007-2008 winter, we all know what happened during the severe wx season of 2008. By far the most storms I've ever witnessed aside from Chicago in 2004 which came close. I think we get whalloped with storms, so bring it on.



#5
WeatherFanOMA

Posted 23 February 2014 - 03:09 PM

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I would love to see at least one decent storm to come through, but don't think it will happen.  If trends hold true the system will shift north or south in the coming days.  I'm ready for Spring.



#6
LincWeath

Posted 23 February 2014 - 04:20 PM

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I haven't been able to keep tabs on the storm for next weekend. Is it already making minor shifts? If so it wouldn't suprise me, just enough shifts to put it in Kansas before Sat night and Sunday. No suprises

#7
clintbeed1993

Posted 23 February 2014 - 04:45 PM

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I haven't been able to keep tabs on the storm for next weekend. Is it already making minor shifts? If so it wouldn't suprise me, just enough shifts to put it in Kansas before Sat night and Sunday. No suprises

 

 

I don't believe it is shifting on the models.  GFS has been consistent showing a big snow for the entire state.  Not sure what the other guy is seeing.  He may just be talking about how storms have gone this season.



#8
LincWeath

Posted 23 February 2014 - 05:04 PM

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Ya I hear ya. I was thinking the same thing. I hope we can get something out of this one. Either way I'm ready for spring after next weekend, beginning of March and I'm usually ready for spring. Especially after the nice weather last week.

#9
gabel23

Posted 23 February 2014 - 07:03 PM

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The one shift that is starting to show up for next weekend's storm is a cutter vs. a colorado low. That is what I'm starting to see in each model run for the past couple of days. Hope I'm wrong; I would like to see one last storm before winter is done! Long ways to go with each model run but how many times have we said that this winter?!?!



#10
clintbeed1993

Posted 23 February 2014 - 07:16 PM

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The one shift that is starting to show up for next weekend's storm is a cutter vs. a colorado low. That is what I'm starting to see in each model run for the past couple of days. Hope I'm wrong; I would like to see one last storm before winter is done! Long ways to go with each model run but how many times have we said that this winter?!?!

 

 

We definitely need a Colorado Low.  I just don't think our big snow will come from a cutter.  They always seem to miss us to the east.  That is one of the reasons our winter has been so dry.  Too many cutters/clippers/panhandle hookers.  Not 1 Colorado Low, which is really our best shot.



#11
gabel23

Posted 23 February 2014 - 07:24 PM

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We definitely need a Colorado Low.  I just don't think our big snow will come from a cutter.  They always seem to miss us to the east.  That is one of the reasons our winter has been so dry.  Too many cutters/clippers/panhandle hookers.  Not 1 Colorado Low, which is really our best shot.

I meant to say that is bad news; but yeah two reason's this winter has sucked. 1. A northwest flow, more snow for Iowa and areas to our east which has proven true. 2. More cutters vs. no Colorado lows=9.5" of snow for me which means I'm ready for spring! 



#12
clintbeed1993

Posted 23 February 2014 - 08:19 PM

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I meant to say that is bad news; but yeah two reason's this winter has sucked. 1. A northwest flow, more snow for Iowa and areas to our east which has proven true. 2. More cutters vs. no Colorado lows=9.5" of snow for me which means I'm ready for spring! 

 

 

Yep, I mentioned the Northwest Flow as a possible problem for our snowfall total during my winter outlook.  October had a lot of Northwest Flow, so I had a feeling that weather pattern might set up during the brunt of winter.  Just can't get any moisture this far west during Northwest Flow.



#13
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 February 2014 - 09:17 PM

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GFS still looking beautiful for the snow events this weekend.  Maybe we will get a surprise and finally get dumped on.



#14
DominicR

Posted 25 February 2014 - 03:41 AM

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This one looking great for everyone. Lot's of pacific moisture and cold air dome over the area gonna spark off some long duration WAA event.



#15
NEJeremy

Posted 25 February 2014 - 06:22 AM

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OAX AFD from last night:

PATTERN TURNS COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND/MONDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING.

 

I guess we're going to be light snowed to death over the weekend. C'mon I wanna see a biggie!!
 



#16
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 February 2014 - 01:17 PM

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NWS Hastings and Goodland sure don't think there are any large storms coming to Nebraska.  They mention cold and small precipitation chances over the weekend, but nothing like is showing up on the GFS or Euro.  Hastings tends to be very conservative, IMO, so things might change this weekend.  Really hoping for a large early March snowstorm but right now I am not holding out alot of hope.



#17
WeatherFanOMA

Posted 25 February 2014 - 02:32 PM

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I think the model are just teasing us now.  This is  set up for a HUGE let down this weekend.  I hope i'm wrong, but it seems like no one is buying into these models.



#18
WeatherFanOMA

Posted 25 February 2014 - 02:33 PM

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Omaha at least starting to talk about it:

 

ACCUMULATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A LITTLE WIND THAT COULD WORSEN TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.



#19
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:16 PM

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Latest GFS.  I really don't know how to feel about this.  The GFS is the most robust for this system, and even it is shifting the heaviest into Iowa and Illinois.  Story of the winter.  I really hope we get a nice surprise from these events, but I'm not counting on it.

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#20
NebraskaWX

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:39 PM

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Latest GFS.  I really don't know how to feel about this.  The GFS is the most robust for this system, and even it is shifting the heaviest into Iowa and Illinois.  Story of the winter.  I really hope we get a nice surprise from these events, but I'm not counting on it.

Clint, is it time for this yet?? Lol, @ :56. Nebraska in a nutshell!

 



#21
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:44 PM

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Clint, is it time for this yet?? Lol, @ :56. Nebraska in a nutshell!

 

 

I love posting this every winter when we get butt raped by the dry slots. Haha

 

You know it's almost funny at this point.  Every time a new system shows up on models you think, maybe this will be the one for me.  You think "they can't all miss us right?"  Then reality hits once again when Chicago gets 12" on top of the 65" they already have..lol  Just pathetic.

 

Hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised, but I'm certainly not getting excited until it starts snowing.



#22
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:46 PM

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I can only dream of living through a winter like the one in my profile picture.



#23
NebraskaWX

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:53 PM

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Lol I know man. It's crazy, it seems like every storm does the EXACT same thing this year. Barely includes Eastern Nebraska on the heavy totals, then continuously shifts further and further east and boom, Chicago blizzard with a WWA for us that was issued for 3-5" that ended up being overdone. I have a bad feeling about the EURO, hopefully I'm wrong and things are changing. Then again, being in the bullseye this far out, is NOT a good thing. If this thing wobbles west, we're both crushed. Cross your fingers hombre.



#24
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:57 PM

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Lol I know man. It's crazy, it seems like every storm does the EXACT same thing this year. Barely includes Eastern Nebraska on the heavy totals, then continuously shifts further and further east and boom, Chicago blizzard with a WWA for us that was issued for 3-5" that ended up being overdone. I have a bad feeling about the EURO, hopefully I'm wrong and things are changing. Then again, being in the bullseye this far out, is NOT a good thing. If this thing wobbles west, we're both crushed. Cross your fingers hombre.

 

I hear ya brother.  Maybe we should just lay off the models and relax.  I always get so worked up only to get let down in the end.  I think we should take the models with a grain of salt and see how it looks once the system arrives.  We definitely deserve to get hammered, but unfortunately Mother Nature is a stubborn ** who doesn't even put out on prom night..lol



#25
clintbeed1993

Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:58 PM

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I hear ya brother.  Maybe we should just lay off the models and relax.  I always get so worked up only to get let down in the end.  I think we should take the models with a grain of salt and see how it looks once the system arrives.  We definitely deserve to get hammered, but unfortunately Mother Nature is a stubborn ** who doesn't even put out on prom night..lol

 

Unless of course you're in Chicago, in that case she is always "open for business"



#26
WeatherFanOMA

Posted 26 February 2014 - 04:25 AM

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And the disappointment begins...

From Mr. Flowers
UPDATE 6AM Wednesday: Overnight model cycles continue the downward trend. GFS model has .33 total precip and euro has .18". GFS now has temps at 10k ft right at 0deg C which would bring ice pellets into the picture. Snow ratio was up to 12:1, not sure why with temps still warming aloft.

#27
gabel23

Posted 28 February 2014 - 01:30 PM

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WOW!!!!!!! My forecast grid is calling for a high of 7 on Saturday, low of -8 that night. Get this, a high of -1 for sunday?!?!?! Low of -14 Monday morning, if this verifies it will be historic for this area! Hoping I have 4-6" of snow that OAX is forecasting for our area on the ground! 



#28
clintbeed1993

Posted 01 March 2014 - 07:41 PM

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WOW!!!!!!! My forecast grid is calling for a high of 7 on Saturday, low of -8 that night. Get this, a high of -1 for sunday?!?!?! Low of -14 Monday morning, if this verifies it will be historic for this area! Hoping I have 4-6" of snow that OAX is forecasting for our area on the ground! 

 

 

How did that 4-6 go for ya?  What a freaking bust.  Very fitting for this God awful winter.  I am sooo ready for spring.  I even started a new thread for it on here! lol



#29
gabel23

Posted 02 March 2014 - 10:48 AM

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How did that 4-6 go for ya?  What a freaking bust.  Very fitting for this God awful winter.  I am sooo ready for spring.  I even started a new thread for it on here! lol


Ended up with an inch!! What a big time bust, I'm going to go this whole winter without a winter storm warning. I'm ready for this winter to be over big time.

#30
winterfreak

Posted 02 March 2014 - 10:55 AM

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One degree and heavy snow currently.

#31
Andie

Posted 02 March 2014 - 02:01 PM

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We're at 19* wind chill at 3. Winds at 15 and gusts to 32.
Ice pellets and sleet showers. More out west. Dropping to 12 tonight near 0* wind chill tonight.
36* tomorrow and low of 23.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#32
NEJeremy

Posted 05 March 2014 - 09:06 PM

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GFS has been consistent for the last several runs in showing a big storm around the 20th. I know it's in fantasy land, but it's been on every run the last couple of days. Tonight's 0Z run showed a wonderful Colorado low and temps were cold enough for a ton of snow all the way across Nebraska



#33
gabel23

Posted 05 March 2014 - 09:16 PM

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GFS has been consistent for the last several runs in showing a big storm around the 20th. I know it's in fantasy land, but it's been on every run the last couple of days. Tonight's 0Z run showed a wonderful Colorado low and temps were cold enough for a ton of snow all the way across Nebraska


That would drop like 2 feet of snow, lol! Too bad it's two weeks away, I would be glad just to see any type of precip at this point.

#34
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 March 2014 - 11:34 AM

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That has now went way north on the 12Z GFS.  Too good to be true as the Colorado Low has disappeared.  It is now a South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota storm.  Raise your hand if you have heard that said this winter.  I sure have.  I am fearful that this winter season will end with no Colorado Lows and at least for our area no Winter Storm Watches.  I don't think I can ever remember that in my lifetime.



#35
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 March 2014 - 12:04 PM

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That has now went way north on the 12Z GFS.  Too good to be true as the Colorado Low has disappeared.  It is now a South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota storm.  Raise your hand if you have heard that said this winter.  I sure have.  I am fearful that this winter season will end with no Colorado Lows and at least for our area no Winter Storm Watches.  I don't think I can ever remember that in my lifetime.

 

 

I agree, never thought I would live through a winter with 0 winter storms.  This winter has been a nightmare.



#36
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:37 AM

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From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.


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#37
tim the weatherman

Posted 09 March 2014 - 12:47 PM

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From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

it'will happen.



#38
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 March 2014 - 06:05 PM

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In other news Nebraska is going nuts right now with the basketball victory over Wisconsin. Not a basketball state but hope that is changing

#39
clintbeed1993

Posted 09 March 2014 - 07:00 PM

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From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

 

Colorado Low would definitely be amazing.  Watch it be too warm for snow when it develops..just our luck.


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#40
NebraskaWX

Posted 10 March 2014 - 11:50 AM

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Around 252 hr on the GFS it shows a potential severe weather outbreak. I'm like ... 

 

anigif_enhanced-buzz-7918-1347140075-11.



#41
clintbeed1993

Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:15 PM

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Around 252 hr on the GFS it shows a potential severe weather outbreak. I'm like ... 

 

anigif_enhanced-buzz-7918-1347140075-11.

 

As much as I love severe weather outbreaks, I can't really say I would rather have that.  This winter has been absolutely terrible, and we really deserve at least 1 good snowstorm.  We have all spring and summer for severe weather, we are running out of time for a good snowstorm.



#42
East Dubzz

Posted 10 March 2014 - 04:23 PM

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Around 252 hr on the GFS it shows a potential severe weather outbreak. I'm like ... 

 

anigif_enhanced-buzz-7918-1347140075-11.

Naw...it's more like...

 

1370679016_1743634075.gif


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#43
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:03 AM

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12Z GFS doesn't hold out much hope for anymore winter in most of Nebraska.  What a disappointment it has been.  Well below normal snowfall with some cold and lots of wind.  I am so jealous of Chicago to the east and the never ending parade of storms.  I guess if El Nino does come about for next winter we could hope for the southern branch of the jet to bring more storms, but I am always fearful that those will bypass us to the south and we will by high and dry for another winter.  We need severe weather season to come.



#44
gabel23

Posted 11 March 2014 - 10:21 AM

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12Z GFS doesn't hold out much hope for anymore winter in most of Nebraska.  What a disappointment it has been.  Well below normal snowfall with some cold and lots of wind.  I am so jealous of Chicago to the east and the never ending parade of storms.  I guess if El Nino does come about for next winter we could hope for the southern branch of the jet to bring more storms, but I am always fearful that those will bypass us to the south and we will by high and dry for another winter.  We need severe weather season to come.

With El Nino coming, as long as it's not too strong, we could have a pretty decent winter next year. Our best winter in years happened during a weak El nino back in 09-10. The major reason for that was b/c of the negative NAO/AO so will see. This just wasn't our year; remember last year Chicago had a horrible winter like ours. Things change, will get our winter sometime.....


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#45
NebraskaWX

Posted 11 March 2014 - 05:36 PM

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With El Nino coming, as long as it's not too strong, we could have a pretty decent winter next year. Our best winter in years happened during a weak El nino back in 09-10. The major reason for that was b/c of the negative NAO/AO so will see. This just wasn't our year; remember last year Chicago had a horrible winter like ours. Things change, will get our winter sometime.....

Agreed bro. I think this might be our year in severe weather, which IMO, if it's awesome, will totally make up for the winter. 



#46
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 March 2014 - 07:16 AM

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Wow it is quiet on the board. Any predictions of promising storms in the next couple of weeks or are we done? The way this winter has gone I am not holding out much hope.

#47
clintbeed1993

Posted 14 March 2014 - 11:48 AM

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Wow it is quiet on the board. Any predictions of promising storms in the next couple of weeks or are we done? The way this winter has gone I am not holding out much hope.

 

 

 

Not looking great for storms.  I don't see the current pattern changing much at all.  Northwest Flow will continue and take the moisture to the east with it.



#48
clintbeed1993

Posted 15 March 2014 - 08:24 PM

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Dry pattern continuing.  The weather has been so d**n boring this winter.



#49
CentralNebWeather

Posted 17 March 2014 - 10:43 AM

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12Z NAM showing a system coming through Nebraska on Wednesday.  Looks fairly potent but not hearing much about it from NWS Hastings.  We will see if they talk about it in their afternoon weather forecast discussion.  Down the road, 12Z GFS shows a potent storm March 31-April 1.  If only it wasn't in fantasy land time.  I do see that we will have 50 MPH winds again tomorrow, so at least we have that going for us (kidding).



#50
clintbeed1993

Posted 18 March 2014 - 12:32 PM

clintbeed1993

    Forum Contributor

  • Mods
  • 554 posts
  • LocationGrand Island, NE

And yet ANOTHER miss for the area today.  Heavy snow just to our west, with areas getting over 6 inches around North Platte.  Can we just get past this horrible winter already?







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: March, Plains, Midwest, Snow, Thunderstrom, Winter, Spring, Rain, Blizzard