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March 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:29 AM

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Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  Lamb sounds delicious right about now but nature suggests a storm system to roll through the Lakes region on the 1st.

 

What will this month entail??  Another above normal month??  Will there be several severe weather outbreaks??  Let's discuss...

 

 

12z NAM suggesting some dingers and heavy rainfall around these parts tomorrow night...

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png

 

 

 

Might it end as some snow???

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_9.png

 

 

RPM suggests back end snow from N IL on north....

 

12z GFS...snowfall...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_12.png

 



#2
Tony

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:34 AM

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Back-end snow????  We can't even get front-end snow so you know the chances of this happening are non-existent plus who really wants it!


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#3
Tom

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:35 AM

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Back-end snow????  We can't even get front-end snow so you know the chances of this happening are non-existent plus who really wants it!

I could care less just pointing out what the models are showing!  Believe me, I want 70's and sunshine...


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#4
Tony

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:37 AM

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I could care less just pointing out what the models are showing!  Believe me, I want 70's and sunshine...

I hear you....



#5
Tony

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:39 AM

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I just hope March will be a warm month and not the usual roller coaster ride we all hate.



#6
gosaints

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:57 AM

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GEFS has 13 out of 16 days above normal.  Good start to the month on the horizon


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#7
jaster220

Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:09 AM

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I just hope March will be a warm month and not the usual roller coaster ride we all hate.

 

The Lakeshore is always teased by early warm spells that can't overcome the cold water, but this year the lake isn't the big ice cube it normally is. That should help nicely. As Tom said, looking for 70's in March, 80's in April, 90's in May, 100's in June..where will it end? Will we be tossed a below normal month in the middle somewhere like last April?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#8
Niko

Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:56 AM

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Well, if its going to snow, I want a sizable snowstorm, otherwise, not interesting. Anything past mid March is not welcomed in my books.

 

Tbh: I am in a Spring mode now. All that warmth really hyped me up for warmer weather. Spring is in the air. It has been since January. Lets see what next winter brings. Until then, lets all enjoy the sunshine and warm temps.  :D


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#9
Money

Posted 27 February 2017 - 01:13 PM

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Still looking like some snow for WI opening up March.

 

12z GFS:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

18z NAM:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Euro came in with more snow as well (4-5 inches) 



#10
WBadgersW

Posted 27 February 2017 - 04:16 PM

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Ew. I hope not

#11
jlp

Posted 27 February 2017 - 08:36 PM

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Bring it. I hope March brings at least 15", it's to early for spring.
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#12
WxGuest

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:04 PM

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Bring it. I hope March brings at least 15", it's to early for spring.


Lol dude, look at the 0z GFS. You're more likely to see temps in the 80s than a few inches of snow.

#13
gimmesnow

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:26 PM

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One last slap in the face, snow that's not enough to do anything with and wont' be sticking around for long. Why has winter forsaken us?



#14
jlp

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:34 PM

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Lol dude, look at the 0z GFS. You're more likely to see temps in the 80s than a few inches of snow.


Because the GFS has been so accurate this winter?? I'll believe it when its 80.lol
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#15
Money

Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:25 PM

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0z Euro bumped up totals even more and showing 7-8 inches of snow in southern WI for Wed. 



#16
gimmesnow

Posted 27 February 2017 - 11:26 PM

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0z Euro bumped up totals even more and showing 7-8 inches of snow in southern WI for Wed.


After this winter of disappointment I'm skeptical to say the least.

#17
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:26 AM

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Because the GFS has been so accurate this winter?? I'll believe it when its 80.lol

You're not going to see snow again until December. Sorry!

And don't worry, the GFS isn't the only model showing an anomalous warm pattern.

#18
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:29 AM

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0z EURO with a massive blowtorch in the central CONUS. Temps in the 90s possible for the Nebraska peeps?
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#19
Money

Posted 28 February 2017 - 03:06 AM

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6z NAM/GFS with an uptick in snowfall

 

NAM:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

GFS:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#20
BrianJK

Posted 28 February 2017 - 05:41 AM

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Hopefully this nuisance system doesn't interrupt our snow record. Would like to stretch it through next winter if possible.

#21
gosaints

Posted 28 February 2017 - 06:10 AM

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Total thread the needle.  Dont buy where the snow band sets up until you see it on radar.

 

Also will have convection to the southeast with the potential to rob moisture from the cold sector.



#22
Accu35mike

Posted 28 February 2017 - 06:22 AM

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You guys have nothing to complain about with snow,lol. I'm a southernwx member,and from Alabama. Been thinking about taking a trip to webber city Iowa, for vacation is the reason I became a member on here. Been lurking for about 2 weeks. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks I will be headed up.only way I see snow is from great GOM with a low rider, or clippers.

#23
Tom

Posted 28 February 2017 - 06:26 AM

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You guys have nothing to complain about with snow,lol. I'm a southernwx member,and from Alabama. Been thinking about taking a trip to webber city Iowa, for vacation is the reason I became a member on here. Been lurking for about 2 weeks. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks I will be headed up.only way I see snow is from great GOM with a low rider, or clippers.

Welcome!  When are you planning on going to Webber city, IA?



#24
Money

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:03 AM

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NAM upped the totals even more for tomorrow and have nearly 10 inches of snow in parts of southern WI
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#25
Money

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:16 AM

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Rgem is even more impressive and have totals reaching 12 up towards gb

#26
Tom

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:19 AM

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Rgem is even more impressive and have totals reaching 12 up towards gb

Wonder if we should start a thread for this event.  Looks dynamic in terms of severe weather and possible snow.  March rolling in like a Lion??



#27
Money

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:27 AM

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I think we should

#28
Tom

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:31 AM

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Started a thread for today/tomorrows spring-like storm system...

 

http://theweatherfor...1-spring-storm/

 

 



#29
Accu35mike

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:21 AM

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Welcome! When are you planning on going to Webber city, IA?

couple weeks hopefully, well actually prob around 6/7 march

#30
NEJeremy

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:07 AM

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0z EURO with a massive blowtorch in the central CONUS. Temps in the 90s possible for the Nebraska peeps?

What are you talking about? 90s?? I took a look at 850s and you're looking at 80 tops out in the panhandle.



#31
WBadgersW

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:28 AM

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NAM upped the totals even more for tomorrow and have nearly 10 inches of snow in parts of southern WI


Little talked about snowfall for sure!

#32
james1976

Posted 28 February 2017 - 09:54 AM

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You guys have nothing to complain about with snow,lol. I'm a southernwx member,and from Alabama. Been thinking about taking a trip to webber city Iowa, for vacation is the reason I became a member on here. Been lurking for about 2 weeks. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks I will be headed up.only way I see snow is from great GOM with a low rider, or clippers.

Awesome! I live only bout 45mins east of there.

#33
gosaints

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:34 AM

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The EURO is showing a top notch weekend period



#34
indianajohn

Posted 28 February 2017 - 11:33 AM

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since both my snowblowers have full tanks of gas you guys have any tips/tricks to how to remove the gas? Or do you guys just use a stabilizer?



#35
gimmesnow

Posted 28 February 2017 - 11:36 AM

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since both my snowblowers have full tanks of gas you guys have any tips/tricks to how to remove the gas? Or do you guys just use a stabilizer?

I drain it all either with a siphon tube or by tipping it over if it's small enough. It's nice not to have stinky gas in the garage all summer long. Fuel goes bad really quickly now thanks to ethanol and other horrible additives in fuel.


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#36
Tom

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:07 PM

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CPC just updated their March outlook...

 

 



#37
Niko

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:47 PM

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I drain it all either with a siphon tube or by tipping it over if it's small enough. It's nice not to have stinky gas in the garage all summer long. Fuel goes bad really quickly now thanks to ethanol and other horrible additives in fuel.

Good tips. I usually empty out my gas with a siphon as well. Works like a charm. Its good to have clean, fresh gas put in at the beginning of each season, whether its a snowblower, lawnmower or etc.



#38
Niko

Posted 28 February 2017 - 01:50 PM

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since both my snowblowers have full tanks of gas you guys have any tips/tricks to how to remove the gas? Or do you guys just use a stabilizer?

Be careful how you disposed the gas, since its a hazard type. I usually bring it to a good friend of mine that works in a gas station and he dumps it somewhere safe.



#39
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 03:43 PM

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What are you talking about? 90s?? I took a look at 850s and you're looking at 80 tops out in the panhandle.


Uh 20 c 850s would support temps approaching 90...

#40
gimmesnow

Posted 28 February 2017 - 04:01 PM

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Good tips. I usually empty out my gas with a siphon as well. Works like a charm. Its good to have clean, fresh gas put in at the beginning of each season, whether its a snowblower, lawnmower or etc.

I don't mean to be too off topic, but I syphon it out into another gas tank and just use it in something else. Just have to keep the pre-mix two strokes and the non-mixed separate.



#41
NEJeremy

Posted 28 February 2017 - 04:32 PM

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Uh 20 c 850s would support temps approaching 90...

Since you can't look at soundings on the Euro and can't see surface maps for the temperatures on the Euro, I took a look at the GFS and took a look at soundings for areas that had 20C 850s for different times in the future and all of those soundings had surface temps of 75-81 degrees. It appears to be pretty darn near impossible to get 90 degree surface temps with 20C soundings. You would have to a surface elevation of near 0 feet ASL and nowhere in Nebraska is the elevation that low. Go click around on soundings for Nebraska when you see 850s at 20C and you won't see any forecast surface temps close to 90 degrees.


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#42
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 05:12 PM

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Since you can't look at soundings on the Euro and can't see surface maps for the temperatures on the Euro, I took a look at the GFS and took a look at soundings for areas that had 20C 850s for different times in the future and all of those soundings had surface temps of 75-81 degrees. It appears to be pretty darn near impossible to get 90 degree surface temps with 20C soundings. You would have to a surface elevation of near 0 feet ASL and nowhere in Nebraska is the elevation that low. Go click around on soundings for Nebraska when you see 850s at 20C and you won't see any forecast surface temps close to 90 degrees.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Chicago had temps in the upper 80s with 14-16 C 850s during the March 2012 heatwave. With sufficient mixing, 90 is definitely attainable with 20 C.

Also, the GFS is notorious for having a severe cold bias with 2m temps, especially early in the spring.

#43
gosaints

Posted 28 February 2017 - 05:14 PM

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You have no idea what you're talking about.

Chicago had temps in the upper 80s with 14-16 C 850s during the March 2012 heatwave. With sufficient mixing, 90 is definitely attainable with 20 C.


Especially with low soil moisture...

#44
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 05:15 PM

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Especially with low soil moisture...

yup, very true.

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

#45
jaster220

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:51 PM

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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#46
NEJeremy

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:51 PM

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yup, very true.

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

ha ha good one! I'll be waiting for the 90s as you called it.

new guy comes to a forum and starts calling people names. Must be 10 years old!


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#47
jaster220

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:53 PM

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Spoiler alert! He's only new "here"
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#48
Tom

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:55 PM

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yup, very true.

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.


No need for that in here. Our members respect one another.
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#49
gosaints

Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:56 PM

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ha ha good one! I'll be waiting for the 90s as you called it.
new guy comes to a forum and starts calling people names. Must be 10 years old!


I am by no means saying you will hit 90 on saying they can happpen with 20 at 850.

#50
NEJeremy

Posted 28 February 2017 - 08:34 PM

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I am by no means saying you will hit 90 on saying they can happpen with 20 at 850.

I'm sure it has happened before as it did in Chicago years ago. You mentioned dry soil and it hasn't been that dry in Nebraska over the winter. GFS is cold, but something tells me though it's not 15-20 degrees off either. I clicked on numerous soundings in westerm Nebraska when it showed 20C 850s in the middle of March and it had temps in the low 70s at the surface. Here in Omaha during our last warm stretch, we had 850s of 16-18C and we were only 72-75 degrees. Elevation is important. Chicago is about 600 ft above sea level. Omaha is at about 1100 ft ASL. By the time you get to western Nebraska where the 20C 850s were showing up, elevation is nearing 3000 ft so now you have not a lot of space for the temp to warm drastically from 20C(68F) at 850 to the surface.


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