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March 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
clintbeed1993

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:44 PM

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yup, very true.

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

 

I have issued you a warning for that garbage.  Don't show up and act like a tough guy or you will be gone from this forum faster than you can swallow..


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#52
WxGuest

Posted 28 February 2017 - 10:52 PM

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It's called constructive criticism, not "abusive" behavior.

I wasn't acting like a "tough guy" either. If anything, it was just some banter.

#53
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 05:33 AM

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Lets see how the temps actual shake out this month.  Here was the last run for the CFSv2...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201703.gif



#54
Accu35mike

Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:43 AM

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Lets see how the temps actual shake out this month. Here was the last run for the CFSv2...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201703.gif

I believe y'all might have a better chance in March with wintry weather then us southern.As for me spring is knocking.
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#55
iFred

Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:48 AM

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I have issued you a warning for that garbage.  Don't show up and act like a tough guy or you will be gone from this forum faster than you can swallow..

 

 

It's called constructive criticism, not "abusive" behavior.

I wasn't acting like a "tough guy" either. If anything, it was just some banter.

 

If there are shenanigans going on, send me a PM with the details.


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#56
iFred

Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:49 AM

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I believe y'all might have a better chance in March with wintry weather then us southern.As for me spring is knocking.

 

Welcome to the forums Mike!



#57
iFred

Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:51 AM

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You guys have nothing to complain about with snow,lol. I'm a southernwx member,and from Alabama. Been thinking about taking a trip to webber city Iowa, for vacation is the reason I became a member on here. Been lurking for about 2 weeks. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks I will be headed up.only way I see snow is from great GOM with a low rider, or clippers.

 

Oh - and please send more people from the South our way. We could use a few more people on the Gulf or in Dixie.



#58
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:36 AM

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Certainly not in this sub forum, but I noticed that there are Blizzard Warnings for the higher terrain on the big island of Hawaii. You don't see that everyday, but add it to the list of things you've seen this winter that you typically don't see.
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#59
Niko

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:43 AM

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March came in like a lamb, but will turn into a Lion later today as colder air arrives and snowshowers overspread the area with teens for overnight lows tonight. Brrrrr. No accumulations expected, but, maybe an inch at the most.



#60
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:09 AM

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I'm sure there are a few on here who have asked to see charts on which models perform better in the Week 2 forecasts.  Here is one of them showing a score card from Jan 15th - Feb 15th...GEFS did a good job in January but then EPS took over...

 

 

 

C52PndqWAAAVKdF.jpg



#61
gosaints

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:20 AM

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I'm sure there are a few on here who have asked to see charts on which models perform better in the Week 2 forecasts.  Here is one of them showing a score card from Jan 15th - Feb 15th...GEFS did a good job in January but then EPS took over...

 

 

 

C52PndqWAAAVKdF.jpg

Ya the GEFS GFS have been laughably bad in the long range the last month.  GFS cant help but bring the cold only to lose it



#62
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Ya the GEFS GFS have been laughably bad in the long range the last month.  GFS cant help but bring the cold only to lose it

Wonder how it performs in March.  GEFS/GFS are bringing back a colder look and it seems the EPS is also but I can't tell past Day 10.



#63
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:26 AM

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Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".



#64
gosaints

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:32 AM

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Wonder how it performs in March. GEFS/GFS are bringing back a colder look and it seems the EPS is also but I can't tell past Day 10.


Eps has a positive AO/nao through.the end of the run...gfs on an island.

#65
Tony

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".

Tom, I truely doubt we will see any accumulation from this...maybe some flakes flying but that's about it.



#66
gimmesnow

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:19 AM

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Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".

Ground seems too warm and wet for me. They were forecasting 1-3 today for me and they revised it down to less than an inch. The flakes will fall but I doubt a lot of it will stick.



#67
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:27 AM

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Tom, I truely doubt we will see any accumulation from this...maybe some flakes flying but that's about it.

 

Ground seems too warm and wet for me. They were forecasting 1-3 today for me and they revised it down to less than an inch. The flakes will fall but I doubt a lot of it will stick.

 

Esp with it being a day time event with marginal temps....



#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 March 2017 - 02:52 PM

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Snow from this morning is all but melted. March sun and warm ground temps doing work.

#69
indianajohn

Posted 01 March 2017 - 04:08 PM

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this is the first time in recorded history that Chicago has not had a trace of snow in January and February

#70
Tom

Posted 01 March 2017 - 05:08 PM

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this is the first time in recorded history that Chicago has not had a trace of snow in January and February


I think it was for less than 1" of snow for both months. We had 0.4" in Jan or something around there.

#71
NEJeremy

Posted 01 March 2017 - 05:33 PM

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Certainly not in this sub forum, but I noticed that there are Blizzard Warnings for the higher terrain on the big island of Hawaii. You don't see that everyday, but add it to the list of things you've seen this winter that you typically don't see.

it seems like they have had a pretty active winter this year out in Hawaii strangely enough. I know they see snow up on the upper peaks out there, but I've seen it several times this season which seems more than I remember it happening before.



#72
NEJeremy

Posted 01 March 2017 - 05:34 PM

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I think it was for less than 1" of snow for both months. We had 0.4" in Jan or something around there.

I keep forgetting how bad it has been in Chicago this season. We've had it bad out here, but it's been just as bad if not worse that way with both January and February not having really anything!



#73
clintbeed1993

Posted 01 March 2017 - 06:22 PM

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I keep forgetting how bad it has been in Chicago this season. We've had it bad out here, but it's been just as bad if not worse that way with both January and February not having really anything!

 

Atleast they got a good December.  I believe they are right at or slightly above our season total even with the last 2 months.  That's so depressing.


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#74
Accu35mike

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:11 PM

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Oh - and please send more people from the South our way. We could use a few more people on the Gulf or in Dixie.

will do lol

#75
Accu35mike

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:12 PM

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Currently 79 degrees

#76
jlp

Posted 02 March 2017 - 03:51 AM

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You're not going to see snow again until December. Sorry!

And don't worry, the GFS isn't the only model showing an anomalous warm pattern.

Received 3" of snow yesterday, still waiting on the 80 degree weather you claim is coming. Do you have a time frame to back your prediction?

#77
james1976

Posted 02 March 2017 - 05:58 AM

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Chicago had less than 1" total for jan-feb??? 😮

#78
Tom

Posted 02 March 2017 - 06:04 AM

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Chicago had less than 1" total for jan-feb???

Yup!  I saw some decent snow fall rates yesterday as I was clipped by the defo band from the last system but it didn't last to long.  It was very windy and at times the rates were surprisingly good.  This morning I'm seeing more snow shower activity.


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#79
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 02 March 2017 - 06:15 AM

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Tbh, I am all for warmer weather and maybe even more severe outbreaks. Not necessarily here, but south. This year definitely has a 2012 ring to it, and I would assume severe is gonna follow suit. We're on a good pace so far, but a-la 2012 it will probably slow down may-June. Which is unfortunate, given that is prime time for us.
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2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#80
Niko

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:15 AM

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A cold day today with a white ground. Received about 0.5" of snowfall. Currently @ 28F and dropping down to 12 by morning.



#81
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:25 AM

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60s back in the point for Sunday and Monday. MPX says 70s possible in SW MN.

25F and bright blue skies right now though.
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#82
Tom

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:26 PM

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More severe wx next Monday for the same areas who just experienced some this week???

 

C579nrbXEAA-MT9.jpg


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#83
Tom

Posted 03 March 2017 - 05:59 AM

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A band of snow is forecast to develop over night and streak down from Minny to Indy.  More like a nuisance snow but it may impact the record books.

 

From snow to severe weather????  Monday night still looking like the severe threat is there...trending a bit west...

 

 

C5_ksA6U8AA9N-0.jpg



#84
westMJim

Posted 03 March 2017 - 06:30 AM

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For the second day in a row there is about an inch of new snow here in west Michigan. The snow that fell on Wednesday night melted yesterday. And last night once again about a inch of new snow. Here at my house I had a low of 16° last night and at GRR the official low was 17° Now looking back at February. Here is the Grand Rapids NWS office summaries for February 2017

http://www.weather.g...rr/news20170301

and the DJF winter season

http://www.weather.g...rr/news20170301

We just had the warmest February on record and a top ten in the warmest winter seasons on record (120+ years) Also Here is some interesting snow fall information since the calendar   start of winter Grand Rapids has only had 20.8” of snow. Over in Lansing they have their calendar winter snow fall total is now only 16.8” and at Muskegon its only 21.9” So that at Grand Rapids of this season 54.2”. 33.4” fell in just a two week span in early December. At Lansing of their 27.6” 10.8” in that two-week span in December. And in Muskegon of the 40.9” this season 18” fell in the two week in early December and one inch fell there in November  



#85
Tom

Posted 03 March 2017 - 06:44 AM

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More epic snow capped mountain pics from Lake Tahoe.  I hear some resorts will try to stay open up until the 4th of July Fireworks!

 

Lake-Tahoe2-640x480.jpg...

 

This pic brings back some good memories when I went skiing there back in the late 90's...

 

 

Lake-Tahoe1-640x480.jpg



#86
Tom

Posted 03 March 2017 - 07:25 AM

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Lake Winnebago creating havoc near Fondy creating Ice Shoves and destroying property...

 

http://fox11online.c...e-in-calumet-co



#87
Ohio Climate

Posted 03 March 2017 - 07:45 AM

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YNG reported 5 inches of snow last hour.

 

METAR KYNG 031451Z 26012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP279 SNINCR 5/6 P0006 60008 T10501072 51020


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#88
Ohio Climate

Posted 03 March 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Also, CLE had thundersnow earlier this morning with visibilities of 1/16th of a mile.

 

METAR KCLE 031351Z COR 27016G23KT 1/16SM +TSSN FEW009 OVC012CB M04/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 TSB47 SLP295 OCNL LTGICCCCCG SW TS SW MOV E P0002 T10391067



#89
NEJeremy

Posted 03 March 2017 - 09:03 AM

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A band of snow is forecast to develop over night and streak down from Minny to Indy.  More like a nuisance snow but it may impact the record books.

 

From snow to severe weather????  Monday night still looking like the severe threat is there...trending a bit west...

 

 

C5_ksA6U8AA9N-0.jpg

Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it before



#90
Tom

Posted 03 March 2017 - 09:07 AM

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Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it before

I follow this met on Twitter...he works for The Weather Company, formerly known as WSI...he studies the tropics and issues long range forecasts based on the MJO.


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#91
james1976

Posted 03 March 2017 - 09:17 AM

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Tbh, I am all for warmer weather and maybe even more severe outbreaks. Not necessarily here, but south. This year definitely has a 2012 ring to it, and I would assume severe is gonna follow suit. We're on a good pace so far, but a-la 2012 it will probably slow down may-June. Which is unfortunate, given that is prime time for us.

Summer of 2012 was a huge drought and it was very hot all summer. I mowed my lawn 3 times that entire year! I wouldnt mind seeing that but with more storms!

#92
BrianJK

Posted 04 March 2017 - 05:19 AM

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I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter.

#93
Tom

Posted 04 March 2017 - 06:31 AM

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I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter.

Officially, ORD received 0.1"!!



#94
Tom

Posted 04 March 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Storms are looking likely for Monday night around here...

 

C6FIJ5pWMAQc68x.jpg

 

 

SPC Outlook...

 

day3otlk_0830.gif?1488638014963



#95
BrianJK

Posted 04 March 2017 - 06:54 AM

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Officially, ORD received 0.1"!!


Haha. Yep, that ain't gonna cut it. We'll see what March holds ahead, but I'm fairly optimistic.

#96
Tom

Posted 05 March 2017 - 07:13 AM

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By this time next weekend, we will have lost 1 hour of sleep as daylight savings "Spring Forward" kicks in at 2:00am Sunday morning.  But will it feel like Spring???

 

It'll feel like Spring tomorrow with severe storms targeting the Ozarks region and possibly down to Okwx's place...

 

day2otlk_0700.gif?1488726680551



#97
NEJeremy

Posted 05 March 2017 - 07:36 AM

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GFS has this system moving through tomorrow getting down to 966 mb as it rapidly deepens. Too bad that happens just across the border in Canada, so all we get from it here are high winds and high fire danger.



#98
gosaints

Posted 05 March 2017 - 07:31 PM

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Could see some sneaky strong storms tomorrow night

#99
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 04:51 AM

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53 at 6am. Crazy

#100
Grizzcoat

Posted 06 March 2017 - 05:19 AM

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YNG reported 5 inches of snow last hour.

 

METAR KYNG 031451Z 26012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP279 SNINCR 5/6 P0006 60008 T10501072 51020

What is sad about this is how crappy the AWPAG sensor on the ASOS did in melting the snow and recording the water equivalent. .06" of liquid from 5" of snow??? Come on. The 5" snow was measured by a CWO. (Contract Weather Observer)The junk of ASOS and it's 80's technology needs to either be replaced with full manual obs via humans (like pre 1996) or develop something that is not a POS, but since the FAA is now fully in charge of ASOS and the observation program -- you can forgot about it.