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March 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#101
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 05:25 AM

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Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968).

#102
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:24 AM

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WSI Severe Wx forecast has gone up...

 

C6PYd2wUYAEoRuH.jpg

 

C6PYeSEU4AAVPP9.jpg

 

 

 

12z High-Rez NAM did very well with the previous severe wx outbreak last week and points to a pretty good line of storms in E IA.just before midnight tonight...

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

Weakens as it heads to the east...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png



#103
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968).

The latest HRRR is showing a nice line of storms just to your NW around 6:00pm...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

 

E IA should be getting hit pretty good right around 10:00pm...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

1:00am near Chicago...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png



#104
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 09:35 AM

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SPC shifting Enhanced Risk a little farther north...

 

C6P7iyyXQAIHYij.jpg



#105
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 09:44 AM

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Could be a fun afternoon. Wind is whipping over here!

#106
gosaints

Posted 06 March 2017 - 09:58 AM

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WOW at the humidity.  Snow pack done for



#107
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 10:57 AM

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We're really gonna have to work to get to the forecasted high of 62. Currently only at 52 with super thick overcast. Feels a heck of a lot warmer though with the humidity. Looks like temps might spike up right before the storms fire up to the W/NW.

Latest HRRR shows the line moving right through the metro during the evening rush.

Attached Files



#108
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:18 AM

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Yup way humid. Up to 61 now too. Windy as heck

#109
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Shot up to 64. Sun starting to break thru. Dang near feels like early summer with the humidity!

#110
gosaints

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:43 AM

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Rochester up 8 degrees in last 2 hours.  56 now..  Starting to get some breaks in stratus deck



#111
gosaints

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:52 AM

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Will be interesting to see if any tornados form in MN.  Would break the record for the earliest by 12 days if it does occur..



#112
gosaints

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:54 AM

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Mesoscale Discussion 253 < Previous MD         Next MD > mcd0253.gif Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of MN and western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061937Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms will be increasing
across parts of southwest and west-central MN in the general
2030Z-2200Z time frame, with this activity subsequently spreading
eastward/northeastward. Severe hail and wind, along with tornadoes,
will be possible across the region, and a Tornado Watch will likely
be issued within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The exit region of a cyclonically curved mid/high-level
jet streak continues to impinge upon the western extent of modest
moisture return (surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s) analyzed
from IA into southern MN. Visible satellite imagery indicates an
area of more agitated cumulus growth across northwest IA -- along a
surface trough that arches northwestward to 981-mb low pressure
analyzed over east-central ND. This surface trough represents the
focused corridor of low-level ascent that will serve to support
surfaced-based thunderstorm generation in the general 2030Z-2200Z
time frame, with this activity spreading toward the Mississippi
River into the evening hours.

Despite the modest degree of moisture return east of the surface
trough, midlevel cooling associated with large-scale ascent -- amid
antecedent moderately steep midlevel lapse rates -- will support
MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg (greatest south). The presence of 40-60
kt of effective shear will support organized convective structures,
including supercells especially during the first few hours of storm
development.

Visible satellite loops reveal notable horizontal convective roll
structures along the southwestern periphery of northeastward-eroding
low-level stratus across central/south-central MN, indicative of the
strong low-level shear already in place. Large effective SRH (around
250-400 m2/s2) aided by backed surface winds in closer proximity to
the track of the surface low (compared to points south) will offer
tornado potential with storms spreading across the area into the
evening hours. While supercell storms will have the greatest risk of
producing tornadoes, the large magnitude of ascent will probably
foster upscale-growing convective clusters/quasi-linear segments.
Furthermore, an inflection in forecast hodographs (around 3 km above
ground) suggests that storms may evolve into a cluster mode fairly
quickly. While these factors could impede the longevity of strong
low-level circulations, tornado potential will exist, along with
large hail and severe wind potential. The severe risk will spread
toward the Mississippi Valley region into the evening hours.

..Cohen/Grams.. 03/06/2017

#113
gabel23

Posted 06 March 2017 - 11:55 AM

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Meanwhile, out in the plains this was just issued.........

 

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Blowing
Dust Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CST this evening.

* HAZARD...High winds and blowing dust.

* TIMING...All day and into the evening.

* Winds...West, 35 to 45 mph with gusts close to 60 mph.

* Visibility...Around 3 miles, with locally reduced visibilities
below one mile.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will make driving difficult, especially
on north-south roads. Minor damage to structures could occur.
Some trees...fences and signs could be blown over. Lightweight
outdoor objects could be blown away. Localized power outages
possible. Visibility will be reduced in blowing dust.


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#114
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 12:03 PM

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Tornado Watch just issued for most of IA until 10!

#115
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 12:04 PM

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MLCAPE is respectable but the shear of up to 55-60 kts is exciting. Skies brightening here right after gosaints said it was clearing down south.

#116
gabel23

Posted 06 March 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Storms are lining up right along the dry line in Eastern Nebraska. First thunderstorm warning was just issued. 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST

FOR NORTHWESTERN BURT...SOUTHEASTERN CUMING AND NORTH CENTRAL DODGE
COUNTIES...

At 202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Lyons, or 44 miles south of Sioux City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

 
 
Here around my area, the dry line has already pushed through. The skies have turned a brownish color.....obviously due to the dust that has been picked up out in the open areas. Winds are howling out of the southwest. 


#117
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 12:07 PM

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66 now. Wind is crazy

#118
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 12:53 PM

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Tornado Watch issued until 10pm. Temp rapidly up to 62 as skies have really cleared. Cells firing in W IA and SW MN.

Looks like something trying to pop just west of St Cloud.

#119
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 01:26 PM

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NEJeremy and OMA storm chasers look to get rocked by a strong storm approaching that area...

#120
gabel23

Posted 06 March 2017 - 01:46 PM

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NEJeremy and OMA storm chasers look to get rocked by a strong storm approaching that area...

Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST

FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Missouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.


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#121
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 01:54 PM

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Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST

FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Missouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

I love tracking severe wx...so explosive and unpredictable at times!


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#122
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 01:58 PM

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The cell around Redwood Falls MN looks interesting. It's still going solo and has the best chance at this point of popping a tor. Would make history if it did.

#123
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 02:36 PM

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Lookin wild. Shot up to 72 here. Way windy. Lookin fwd to the storms

#124
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 03:05 PM

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The cell around Redwood Falls MN looks interesting. It's still going solo and has the best chance at this point of popping a tor. Would make history if it did.


That same cell is now tornado warned NW of the metro. Radar indicated tornado.

#125
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 03:56 PM

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Tornado on the ground in Zimmerman, MN east of St Cloud. Reports of trees and power poles down. Debris ball on radar. Minnesota's earliest tornado ever.

#126
gosaints

Posted 06 March 2017 - 03:56 PM

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Lol warning east of st cloud in early march

#127
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 04:38 PM

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Tornado on the ground in Zimmerman, MN east of St Cloud. Reports of trees and power poles down. Debris ball on radar. Minnesota's earliest tornado ever.


Broken record!
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#128
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 March 2017 - 04:50 PM

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Nothing severe here but great to see vivid lightning and hear the boomers again. Spring can stay as long as it wants.

#129
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 05:00 PM

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KC area getting rocked also...good to see Gary Lezak's region finally see some wx action...



#130
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 05:39 PM

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Crazy weather pattern!!
Lost power half hour ago. Storm is letting up. Had several mins of very heavy rain wind lightning and sounded like small hail.

#131
Hawkeye

Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:16 PM

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A lot of excitement over here.  There was 80-90 mph wind reported west of Cedar Rapids.  Then we had sirens going off for a possible brief spinup sw of the city.  There was a lot of nice lightning with fairly calm conditions, then a wall of 50 mph wind, torrential rain, and small hail hit instantly.


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season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#132
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:28 PM

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A lot of excitement over here. There was 80-90 mph wind reported west of Cedar Rapids. Then we had sirens going off for a possible brief spinup sw of the city. There was a lot of nice lightning with fairly calm conditions, then a wall of 50 mph wind, torrential rain, and small hail hit instantly.


Do you know if there were any confirmed tornados? Warnings still up east of you.

#133
Hawkeye

Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:45 PM

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Do you know if there were any confirmed tornados? Warnings still up east of you.

 

Haven't heard of any, but it may be tough to confirm any brief spinups in the dark.  Mostly, there are just a lot of 60-70 mph wind reports.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#134
james1976

Posted 06 March 2017 - 08:06 PM

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Barn was blown down 10 miles from me



#135
Tom

Posted 06 March 2017 - 08:38 PM

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Severe T-Storm Watch issued for SE WI/N IL...



#136
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 March 2017 - 05:15 AM

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Was 60° with heavy t-storms at 6pm last night. Woke up to 27° and a dusting of snow on the ground.

#137
Tom

Posted 07 March 2017 - 06:21 AM

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What an active day yesterday in the severe wx dept.  Saw this tweet:

 

 

 

29 reported tornadoes yesterday, 253 wind reports, 93 hail reports; Total 375 severe wx reports. Most tornadoes in March since 3/2 2012

C6T_0T8U8AI3Lfq.jpg


#138
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 07 March 2017 - 06:30 AM

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At least the third 500+ report day and it's only early March, been an active late winter severe season.

Attached File  image.png   17.47KB   0 downloads
  • NEJeremy likes this

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.8"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#139
Tom

Posted 07 March 2017 - 06:40 AM

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At least the third 500+ report day and it's only early March, been an active late winter severe season.

attachicon.gifimage.png

Quite the fast start to severe wx season.  I know the Insurance companies aren't ready for this.



#140
Tom

Posted 07 March 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Blizzard Warnings still ongoing for ND where their winter started in late November and prob won't end till sometime in April.  Pretty good snow depth for parts of that state.  

 

nsm_depth_2017030705_Upper_Midwest.jpg



#141
NEJeremy

Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Quite the day yesterday weatherwise. I saw a note somewhere that Sioux City, IA made it to 80 during the day and had a dusting of snow last night. It was amazing to see the continuous huge line of storms from MN/WI all the way down to AR/OK, and almost the entire line was warned. I'm not sure I remember having so many tornado warnings come out of a line of storms. Sure you can get QLCS spinups, but there were a lot last night. 

I went out for a close chase since the storms basically formed just west of me. I ventured into western Iowa and eventually gave up trying to stay in front of the line north of Atlantic IA. Experienced some gusty winds and pea sized hail. I started to head back home and within 30 minutes the line had a tornado warning to my northeast but no chance of catching anything that was moving 55-65 mph. I saw one warning had storm motion at 90 mph! Here in Omaha, there was a report of 70 mph winds in northwest Omaha and some hail up to one inch.

 

It looks like there was quite a bit of damage in northeast KS to near and just northeast of Kansas City last night. Several confirmed tornadoes there.



#142
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:44 AM

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Dry thunderstorms....where am I the desert southwest??

MPX:
A rather unusual convective scenario develops this afternoon.
Despite the very dry dew points, an extremely deeply mixed
atmosphere to 500 mb (and therefore nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
throughout a large portion of the atmosphere) will still allow for
150-300 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to develop late this
afternoon. Added isolated thunderstorms to the grids from south
central MN to west central WI after 3 pm where a subtle mid level
speed max is evident. These thunderstorms could be dry, a very
rare occurrence in this area of the country. Localized higher wind
gusts would be the sole threat.

#143
Niko

Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Nice, mild day today with temps in the upper 50s to near 60. Cannot wait for Spring to arrive.



#144
Niko

Posted 07 March 2017 - 08:53 AM

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Any thunderstorms really weaken as they moved east last night across MI.



#145
Niko

Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:09 AM

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I am under a High Wind Warning. :blink:



#146
james1976

Posted 07 March 2017 - 12:09 PM

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29 tornadoes???!
Waterloo set a record high yesterday 72

#147
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 March 2017 - 12:40 PM

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Currently 46F but a huge snow squall just went through. Went from sun to convective looking clouds within a few minutes. Anvils building to the west. Wild stuff.

#148
gabel23

Posted 07 March 2017 - 12:59 PM

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If you guys get a chance, go to Dodge City, KS NWS page. You can see the wild fires that are burning out of control on radar. CRAZY!

 

 

Attached Files



#149
gabel23

Posted 07 March 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Here is Hastings write up about yesterday's winds and blowing dust. I never knew a 'brown out' occurred around the Hastings area leading to a multi-car pile up. 



#150
NEJeremy

Posted 07 March 2017 - 01:28 PM

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Our dewpoint has dropped to 4 degrees with 12% humidity! 57 degrees outside with winds gusting to 40 mph. Ouch!