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March 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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For the second day in a row there is about an inch of new snow here in west Michigan. The snow that fell on Wednesday night melted yesterday. And last night once again about a inch of new snow. Here at my house I had a low of 16° last night and at GRR the official low was 17° Now looking back at February. Here is the Grand Rapids NWS office summaries for February 2017

http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20170301

and the DJF winter season

http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20170301

We just had the warmest February on record and a top ten in the warmest winter seasons on record (120+ years) Also Here is some interesting snow fall information since the calendar   start of winter Grand Rapids has only had 20.8” of snow. Over in Lansing they have their calendar winter snow fall total is now only 16.8” and at Muskegon its only 21.9” So that at Grand Rapids of this season 54.2”. 33.4” fell in just a two week span in early December. At Lansing of their 27.6” 10.8” in that two-week span in December. And in Muskegon of the 40.9” this season 18” fell in the two week in early December and one inch fell there in November  

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More epic snow capped mountain pics from Lake Tahoe.  I hear some resorts will try to stay open up until the 4th of July Fireworks!

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Lake-Tahoe2-640x480.jpg...

 

This pic brings back some good memories when I went skiing there back in the late 90's...

 

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Lake-Tahoe1-640x480.jpg

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A band of snow is forecast to develop over night and streak down from Minny to Indy.  More like a nuisance snow but it may impact the record books.

 

From snow to severe weather????  Monday night still looking like the severe threat is there...trending a bit west...

 

 

C5_ksA6U8AA9N-0.jpg

Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it before

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Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it before

I follow this met on Twitter...he works for The Weather Company, formerly known as WSI...he studies the tropics and issues long range forecasts based on the MJO.

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Tbh, I am all for warmer weather and maybe even more severe outbreaks. Not necessarily here, but south. This year definitely has a 2012 ring to it, and I would assume severe is gonna follow suit. We're on a good pace so far, but a-la 2012 it will probably slow down may-June. Which is unfortunate, given that is prime time for us.

Summer of 2012 was a huge drought and it was very hot all summer. I mowed my lawn 3 times that entire year! I wouldnt mind seeing that but with more storms!
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I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter.

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I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter.

Officially, ORD received 0.1"!!

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By this time next weekend, we will have lost 1 hour of sleep as daylight savings "Spring Forward" kicks in at 2:00am Sunday morning.  But will it feel like Spring???

 

It'll feel like Spring tomorrow with severe storms targeting the Ozarks region and possibly down to Okwx's place...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1488726680551

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YNG reported 5 inches of snow last hour.

 

METAR KYNG 031451Z 26012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP279 SNINCR 5/6 P0006 60008 T10501072 51020

What is sad about this is how crappy the AWPAG sensor on the ASOS did in melting the snow and recording the water equivalent. .06" of liquid from 5" of snow??? Come on. The 5" snow was measured by a CWO. (Contract Weather Observer)The junk of ASOS and it's 80's technology needs to either be replaced with full manual obs via humans (like pre 1996) or develop something that is not a POS, but since the FAA is now fully in charge of ASOS and the observation program -- you can forgot about it.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968).

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WSI Severe Wx forecast has gone up...

 

C6PYd2wUYAEoRuH.jpg

 

C6PYeSEU4AAVPP9.jpg

 

 

 

12z High-Rez NAM did very well with the previous severe wx outbreak last week and points to a pretty good line of storms in E IA.just before midnight tonight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017030612/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

Weakens as it heads to the east...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017030612/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

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Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968).

The latest HRRR is showing a nice line of storms just to your NW around 6:00pm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

 

E IA should be getting hit pretty good right around 10:00pm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

1:00am near Chicago...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

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We're really gonna have to work to get to the forecasted high of 62. Currently only at 52 with super thick overcast. Feels a heck of a lot warmer though with the humidity. Looks like temps might spike up right before the storms fire up to the W/NW.

 

Latest HRRR shows the line moving right through the metro during the evening rush.

IMG_0489.PNG

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Mesoscale Discussion 253          Next MD > http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0253.gif Mesoscale Discussion 0253

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0137 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

 

Areas affected...Portions of MN and western WI

 

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

 

Valid 061937Z - 062200Z

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

 

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms will be increasing

across parts of southwest and west-central MN in the general

2030Z-2200Z time frame, with this activity subsequently spreading

eastward/northeastward. Severe hail and wind, along with tornadoes,

will be possible across the region, and a Tornado Watch will likely

be issued within the next couple of hours.

 

DISCUSSION...The exit region of a cyclonically curved mid/high-level

jet streak continues to impinge upon the western extent of modest

moisture return (surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s) analyzed

from IA into southern MN. Visible satellite imagery indicates an

area of more agitated cumulus growth across northwest IA -- along a

surface trough that arches northwestward to 981-mb low pressure

analyzed over east-central ND. This surface trough represents the

focused corridor of low-level ascent that will serve to support

surfaced-based thunderstorm generation in the general 2030Z-2200Z

time frame, with this activity spreading toward the Mississippi

River into the evening hours.

 

Despite the modest degree of moisture return east of the surface

trough, midlevel cooling associated with large-scale ascent -- amid

antecedent moderately steep midlevel lapse rates -- will support

MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg (greatest south). The presence of 40-60

kt of effective shear will support organized convective structures,

including supercells especially during the first few hours of storm

development.

 

Visible satellite loops reveal notable horizontal convective roll

structures along the southwestern periphery of northeastward-eroding

low-level stratus across central/south-central MN, indicative of the

strong low-level shear already in place. Large effective SRH (around

250-400 m2/s2) aided by backed surface winds in closer proximity to

the track of the surface low (compared to points south) will offer

tornado potential with storms spreading across the area into the

evening hours. While supercell storms will have the greatest risk of

producing tornadoes, the large magnitude of ascent will probably

foster upscale-growing convective clusters/quasi-linear segments.

Furthermore, an inflection in forecast hodographs (around 3 km above

ground) suggests that storms may evolve into a cluster mode fairly

quickly. While these factors could impede the longevity of strong

low-level circulations, tornado potential will exist, along with

large hail and severe wind potential. The severe risk will spread

toward the Mississippi Valley region into the evening hours.

 

..Cohen/Grams.. 03/06/2017

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Meanwhile, out in the plains this was just issued.........

 

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Blowing
Dust Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CST this evening.

* HAZARD...High winds and blowing dust.

* TIMING...All day and into the evening.

* Winds...West, 35 to 45 mph with gusts close to 60 mph.

* Visibility...Around 3 miles, with locally reduced visibilities
below one mile.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will make driving difficult, especially
on north-south roads. Minor damage to structures could occur.
Some trees...fences and signs could be blown over. Lightweight
outdoor objects could be blown away. Localized power outages
possible. Visibility will be reduced in blowing dust.

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Storms are lining up right along the dry line in Eastern Nebraska. First thunderstorm warning was just issued. 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST

FOR NORTHWESTERN BURT...SOUTHEASTERN CUMING AND NORTH CENTRAL DODGE
COUNTIES...

At 202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Lyons, or 44 miles south of Sioux City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

 
 
Here around my area, the dry line has already pushed through. The skies have turned a brownish color.....obviously due to the dust that has been picked up out in the open areas. Winds are howling out of the southwest. 
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NEJeremy and OMA storm chasers look to get rocked by a strong storm approaching that area...

Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST

FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...

SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

 

At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of

Missouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at

55 mph.

 

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

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Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! 

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST

FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...

SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

 

At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of

Missouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at

55 mph.

 

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

I love tracking severe wx...so explosive and unpredictable at times!

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