westMJim Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 For the second day in a row there is about an inch of new snow here in west Michigan. The snow that fell on Wednesday night melted yesterday. And last night once again about a inch of new snow. Here at my house I had a low of 16° last night and at GRR the official low was 17° Now looking back at February. Here is the Grand Rapids NWS office summaries for February 2017http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20170301and the DJF winter seasonhttp://www.weather.gov/grr/news20170301We just had the warmest February on record and a top ten in the warmest winter seasons on record (120+ years) Also Here is some interesting snow fall information since the calendar start of winter Grand Rapids has only had 20.8” of snow. Over in Lansing they have their calendar winter snow fall total is now only 16.8” and at Muskegon its only 21.9” So that at Grand Rapids of this season 54.2”. 33.4” fell in just a two week span in early December. At Lansing of their 27.6” 10.8” in that two-week span in December. And in Muskegon of the 40.9” this season 18” fell in the two week in early December and one inch fell there in November Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 More epic snow capped mountain pics from Lake Tahoe. I hear some resorts will try to stay open up until the 4th of July Fireworks! http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Lake-Tahoe2-640x480.jpg... This pic brings back some good memories when I went skiing there back in the late 90's... http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Lake-Tahoe1-640x480.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Lake Winnebago creating havoc near Fondy creating Ice Shoves and destroying property... http://fox11online.com/news/local/fox-cities/ice-shoves-destroy-family-cottage-in-calumet-co Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Climate Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 YNG reported 5 inches of snow last hour. METAR KYNG 031451Z 26012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP279 SNINCR 5/6 P0006 60008 T10501072 51020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Climate Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Also, CLE had thundersnow earlier this morning with visibilities of 1/16th of a mile. METAR KCLE 031351Z COR 27016G23KT 1/16SM +TSSN FEW009 OVC012CB M04/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 TSB47 SLP295 OCNL LTGICCCCCG SW TS SW MOV E P0002 T10391067 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 A band of snow is forecast to develop over night and streak down from Minny to Indy. More like a nuisance snow but it may impact the record books. From snow to severe weather???? Monday night still looking like the severe threat is there...trending a bit west... Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Where did you get this map from? I've never seen it beforeI follow this met on Twitter...he works for The Weather Company, formerly known as WSI...he studies the tropics and issues long range forecasts based on the MJO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Tbh, I am all for warmer weather and maybe even more severe outbreaks. Not necessarily here, but south. This year definitely has a 2012 ring to it, and I would assume severe is gonna follow suit. We're on a good pace so far, but a-la 2012 it will probably slow down may-June. Which is unfortunate, given that is prime time for us.Summer of 2012 was a huge drought and it was very hot all summer. I mowed my lawn 3 times that entire year! I wouldnt mind seeing that but with more storms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 I'm happy to report (while not officially confirmed) that Chicago's snowless record continues. While 1-2" was possible and predicted, woke up to barely a dusting. Historically speaking, we now stand a 50/50 chance to keep the record alive until next winter.Officially, ORD received 0.1"!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Storms are looking likely for Monday night around here... SPC Outlook... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif?1488638014963 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Officially, ORD received 0.1"!!Haha. Yep, that ain't gonna cut it. We'll see what March holds ahead, but I'm fairly optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2017 By this time next weekend, we will have lost 1 hour of sleep as daylight savings "Spring Forward" kicks in at 2:00am Sunday morning. But will it feel like Spring??? It'll feel like Spring tomorrow with severe storms targeting the Ozarks region and possibly down to Okwx's place... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1488726680551 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 5, 2017 Report Share Posted March 5, 2017 GFS has this system moving through tomorrow getting down to 966 mb as it rapidly deepens. Too bad that happens just across the border in Canada, so all we get from it here are high winds and high fire danger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Could see some sneaky strong storms tomorrow night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 53 at 6am. Crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 YNG reported 5 inches of snow last hour. METAR KYNG 031451Z 26012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP279 SNINCR 5/6 P0006 60008 T10501072 51020What is sad about this is how crappy the AWPAG sensor on the ASOS did in melting the snow and recording the water equivalent. .06" of liquid from 5" of snow??? Come on. The 5" snow was measured by a CWO. (Contract Weather Observer)The junk of ASOS and it's 80's technology needs to either be replaced with full manual obs via humans (like pre 1996) or develop something that is not a POS, but since the FAA is now fully in charge of ASOS and the observation program -- you can forgot about it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 WSI Severe Wx forecast has gone up... 12z High-Rez NAM did very well with the previous severe wx outbreak last week and points to a pretty good line of storms in E IA.just before midnight tonight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017030612/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png Weakens as it heads to the east... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017030612/nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Already 50° with a dewpoint of 50°. Man does that humidity feel good. Slight risk of severe storms up to MSP. Looks like the models have slowed things down for this afternoon which puts the metro in a decent spot for active storms later. MPX says supercells and tornadoes possible. The earliest tornado in MN is March 18 (1968).The latest HRRR is showing a nice line of storms just to your NW around 6:00pm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png E IA should be getting hit pretty good right around 10:00pm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png 1:00am near Chicago... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017030614/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 SPC shifting Enhanced Risk a little farther north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Could be a fun afternoon. Wind is whipping over here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 WOW at the humidity. Snow pack done for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 We're really gonna have to work to get to the forecasted high of 62. Currently only at 52 with super thick overcast. Feels a heck of a lot warmer though with the humidity. Looks like temps might spike up right before the storms fire up to the W/NW. Latest HRRR shows the line moving right through the metro during the evening rush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Yup way humid. Up to 61 now too. Windy as heck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Shot up to 64. Sun starting to break thru. Dang near feels like early summer with the humidity! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Rochester up 8 degrees in last 2 hours. 56 now.. Starting to get some breaks in stratus deck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Will be interesting to see if any tornados form in MN. Would break the record for the earliest by 12 days if it does occur.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 253 Next MD > http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0253.gif Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017 Areas affected...Portions of MN and western WI Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061937Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms will be increasing across parts of southwest and west-central MN in the general 2030Z-2200Z time frame, with this activity subsequently spreading eastward/northeastward. Severe hail and wind, along with tornadoes, will be possible across the region, and a Tornado Watch will likely be issued within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The exit region of a cyclonically curved mid/high-level jet streak continues to impinge upon the western extent of modest moisture return (surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s) analyzed from IA into southern MN. Visible satellite imagery indicates an area of more agitated cumulus growth across northwest IA -- along a surface trough that arches northwestward to 981-mb low pressure analyzed over east-central ND. This surface trough represents the focused corridor of low-level ascent that will serve to support surfaced-based thunderstorm generation in the general 2030Z-2200Z time frame, with this activity spreading toward the Mississippi River into the evening hours. Despite the modest degree of moisture return east of the surface trough, midlevel cooling associated with large-scale ascent -- amid antecedent moderately steep midlevel lapse rates -- will support MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg (greatest south). The presence of 40-60 kt of effective shear will support organized convective structures, including supercells especially during the first few hours of storm development. Visible satellite loops reveal notable horizontal convective roll structures along the southwestern periphery of northeastward-eroding low-level stratus across central/south-central MN, indicative of the strong low-level shear already in place. Large effective SRH (around 250-400 m2/s2) aided by backed surface winds in closer proximity to the track of the surface low (compared to points south) will offer tornado potential with storms spreading across the area into the evening hours. While supercell storms will have the greatest risk of producing tornadoes, the large magnitude of ascent will probably foster upscale-growing convective clusters/quasi-linear segments. Furthermore, an inflection in forecast hodographs (around 3 km above ground) suggests that storms may evolve into a cluster mode fairly quickly. While these factors could impede the longevity of strong low-level circulations, tornado potential will exist, along with large hail and severe wind potential. The severe risk will spread toward the Mississippi Valley region into the evening hours. ..Cohen/Grams.. 03/06/2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Meanwhile, out in the plains this was just issued......... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING......HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THISEVENING...The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a BlowingDust Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CST this evening.* HAZARD...High winds and blowing dust.* TIMING...All day and into the evening.* Winds...West, 35 to 45 mph with gusts close to 60 mph.* Visibility...Around 3 miles, with locally reduced visibilitiesbelow one mile.* IMPACTS...Strong winds will make driving difficult, especiallyon north-south roads. Minor damage to structures could occur.Some trees...fences and signs could be blown over. Lightweightoutdoor objects could be blown away. Localized power outagespossible. Visibility will be reduced in blowing dust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tornado Watch just issued for most of IA until 10! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 MLCAPE is respectable but the shear of up to 55-60 kts is exciting. Skies brightening here right after gosaints said it was clearing down south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Storms are lining up right along the dry line in Eastern Nebraska. First thunderstorm warning was just issued. ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CSTFOR NORTHWESTERN BURT...SOUTHEASTERN CUMING AND NORTH CENTRAL DODGECOUNTIES...At 202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south ofLyons, or 44 miles south of Sioux City, moving northeast at 50 mph.HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Here around my area, the dry line has already pushed through. The skies have turned a brownish color.....obviously due to the dust that has been picked up out in the open areas. Winds are howling out of the southwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 66 now. Wind is crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tornado Watch issued until 10pm. Temp rapidly up to 62 as skies have really cleared. Cells firing in W IA and SW MN. Looks like something trying to pop just west of St Cloud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 NEJeremy and OMA storm chasers look to get rocked by a strong storm approaching that area... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 NEJeremy and OMA storm chasers look to get rocked by a strong storm approaching that area...Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CSTFOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES... At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east ofMissouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at55 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Was just gonna say that! Quiet the squall line rolling through. That's some pretty decent size hail! ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CSTFOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES... At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east ofMissouri Valley, or 22 miles northeast of Omaha, moving northeast at55 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.I love tracking severe wx...so explosive and unpredictable at times! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 The cell around Redwood Falls MN looks interesting. It's still going solo and has the best chance at this point of popping a tor. Would make history if it did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2017 Report Share Posted March 6, 2017 Lookin wild. Shot up to 72 here. Way windy. Lookin fwd to the storms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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