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March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 27 February 2017 - 08:50 PM

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I'll grade Winter 2016-17 with an F in terms of being able to get my vegetable garden going. How snowy will March be? 2002 redux for northern WA/SW BC? We'll see in a short time!



#2
snow_wizard

Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:36 PM

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Now the 0z GFS shows this weekend and much of next week could be cold. Just crazy to be seeing this after such a consistently cold Dec - Feb.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#3
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:03 AM

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In like a lamb
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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#4
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 06:38 AM

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Some seriously ugly March weather on tap... either wind and sideways rain or sloppy snow or back and forth for the next 10 days at least.  Just basically raw and unpleasant most of the time.  

 

My least favorite months here are November and March.   



#5
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:03 AM

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GFS has backed off a little bit for the weekend. Still foothills snow, but not quite the insanity it was advertising 24 hours ago. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#6
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:04 AM

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GFS has backed off a little bit for the weekend. Still foothills snow, but not quite the insanity it was advertising 24 hours ago.


Since the 18z things have toned down as far as coast range and foothill snow...

#7
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:12 AM

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Since the 18z things have toned down as far as coast range and foothill snow...

 

Yeah looking fairly similar to last weekend now. Which is actually more in line with the GEM and EURO.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#8
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:47 AM

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Still looking like a fair opportunity for more low-elevation snow next weekend. Borderline, as should be expected for March, but possible. Although at this point I'm almost read to start our march towards Summer. Sloppy snow that lasts for a night, while nice, doesn't provide the same satisfaction as more significant or longer lasting snow events. 

 

As a side note - for those who participated in the 'politics' thread, I shared a few thoughts in the 'off topic' board, far away from any wandering eyes that iFred didn't want to see land on our outlandish antics.


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#9
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:16 AM

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I will have to bookmark the new thread for political talk here.  



#10
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:19 AM

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I will have to bookmark the new thread for political talk here.


I am staying away for now...

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#11
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:22 AM

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I am staying away for now...


Thanks for letting us know!

#12
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:24 AM

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Thanks for letting us know!


President Trump dazzled last night! Even Van Jones and Rachel Maddow had to give mad props!
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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#13
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:29 AM

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President Trump dazzled last night! Even Van Jones and Rachel Maddow had to give mad props!

 

FAKE NEWS!!

 

Nothing they say matters.  Although I see many posts from conservatives today trumpeting the liberal media's response.   So they only count when they say something you like??   :lol:

 

When Trump acts presidential... the media immediately responds favorably.   Its on him to keep it up.   Stop the endless petty attacks and childish behavior and the media will play fair.   



#14
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:44 AM

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Euro and GFS are on different planets for the middle of next week. Euro d**n near goes Arctic.
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#15
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:45 AM

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FAKE NEWS!!

 

Nothing they say matters.  Although I see many posts from conservatives today trumpeting the liberal media's response.   So they only count when they say something you like??   :lol:

 

When Trump acts presidential... the media immediately responds favorably.   Its on him to keep it up.   Stop the endless petty attacks and childish behavior and the media will play fair.   

 

I know this is the wrong thread, but the point is if even the vipers are saying positive things it must have been really good. Though it was absolutely disgusting hearing Andrea Mitchell and Tom Brokaw go into overdrive to try and convince the viewers that the heroic Navy Seal's death was actually in vain. Just absolutely disgusting people.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#16
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:46 AM

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Euro and GFS are on different planets for the middle of next week. Euro D**n near goes Arctic.

 

I was just about to post about this. Really interesting! 

 

Also the GFS has a lot of really cold ensemble members March 10th onward...


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#17
FroYoBro

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:50 AM

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I was just about to post about this. Really interesting! 

 

Also the GFS has a lot of really cold ensemble members March 10th onward...

 

The average person is going to be begging for warmer weather by the end of March. 



#18
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:51 AM

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Quite the difference between yesterdays 12z Euro run and todays 12z run.

 

Yesterday:

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

 

 

Today:

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png



#19
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:52 AM

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Ungodly!

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#20
MossMan

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Euro and GFS are on different planets for the middle of next week. Euro D**n near goes Arctic.

Even with the GFS it looked like the really cold stuff was not far away...guess the jetski and lawnmower will stay in the garage for a little longer! 



#21
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:01 AM

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ECMWF is so weird. Upper level screams west flow trough dropping down for coolish weather but there is a low level backdoor arctic blast hitting central & eastern montana for some reason and then seeing through westward.



#22
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:11 AM

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I know this is the wrong thread, but the point is if even the vipers are saying positive things it must have been really good. Though it was absolutely disgusting hearing Andrea Mitchell and Tom Brokaw go into overdrive to try and convince the viewers that the heroic Navy Seal's death was actually in vain. Just absolutely disgusting people.


I haven't checked Breitbart yet today. Nice to get all of their front page talking points in one convenient post!

#23
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:14 AM

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I haven't checked Breitbart yet today. Nice to get all of their front page talking points in one convenient post!

 

It has been five years to the day since Andrew Breitbart left us far to soon. I am no less stunned by his untimely passing now as I was then, and the pain is still fresh. But his vision and legacy has never been more real. I was thinking about him last night, I hope he is looking down on us and is proud of what we have done in his name.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#24
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:15 AM

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Daffys!

Attached File  IMG_9447.PNG   1.66MB   0 downloads
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#25
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:16 AM

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It has been five years to the day since Andrew Breitbart left us far to soon. I am no less stunned by his untimely passing now as I was then, and the pain is still fresh. But his vision and legacy has never been more real. I was thinking about him last night, I hope he is looking down on us and is proud of what we have done in his name.


Amen. Heil Hitler!

#26
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:17 AM

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Amen. Heil Hitler!

andrew.jpg


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#27
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:18 AM

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It has been five years to the day since Andrew Breitbart left us far to soon. I am no less stunned by his untimely passing now as I was then, and the pain is still fresh. But his vision and legacy has never been more real. I was thinking about him last night, I hope he is looking down on us and is proud of what we have done in his name.

 

 

You express love for political figures and athletes in a way that comes across as very creepy... by intention I am sure.



#28
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:19 AM

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Amen. Heil Hitler!

andrew.jpg

I really wish I would have had a chance to **** him while he was still alive. :(

#29
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:22 AM

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You express love for political figures and athletes in a way that comes across as very creepy... by intention I am sure.

 

I have never and would never question your intelligence or intuition...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#30
MossMan

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

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I really with I would have had a chance to **** him while he was still alive. :(

Is that Breitbart guy going to help us get more snow?


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#31
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:28 AM

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Is that Breitbart guy going to help us get more snow?


He definitely wants to make the countryside whiter!
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#32
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:29 AM

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I really wish I would have had a chance to **** him while he was still alive. :(

 

That is how it comes across.   So over-the-top and creepy.  

 

Does he also have undying love and admiration for Richard Spencer?   



#33
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:32 AM

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That is how it comes across. So over-the-top and creepy.

Does he also have undying love and admiration for Richard Spencer?


We should probably move this to OT. But I'm guessing yes.

#34
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:34 AM

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That is how it comes across.   So over-the-top and creepy.  

 

Does he also have undying love and admiration for Richard Spencer?   

 

I honestly do not even know who that is.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#35
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:35 AM

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I honestly do not even know who that is.

 

Look him up... you will have a new love in your life.  



#36
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Look him up... you will have a new love in your life.  

 

Not a white supremacist so no. 

 

I am willing to continue this convo, but we should do so over on the politics thread...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#37
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:43 AM

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Final February Stats

 

17035943_614396633424_488982863_o.jpg?oh


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#38
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Please do. I have personally been trying to avoid the Trump circus. He is an ******* and the media is feeding him exactly want he craves....Attention!
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#39
BLI snowman

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:46 AM

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ECMWF is so weird. Upper level screams west flow trough dropping down for coolish weather but there is a low level backdoor arctic blast hitting central & eastern montana for some reason and then seeing through westward.

 

That's actually what happened in March 1951.


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#40
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:51 AM

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Finished with 14.7" for the month in West Salem

#41
BLI snowman

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:54 AM

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Final February Stats

 

17035943_614396633424_488982863_o.jpg?oh

 

That's more like it    :wub:


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#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:55 AM

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Finished with 14.7" for the month in West Salem

 

It was interesting how my total for the month was not a lot higher than the valleys. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#43
IbrChris

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:55 AM

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andrew.jpg

I don't think Andrew Breitbart would have supported Trump nor would he have taken Breitbart media in the direction Steve Bannon has.


The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:56 AM

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That's more like it    :wub:

 

I heeded your advice!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#45
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:57 AM

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I don't think Andrew Breitbart would have supported Trump nor would he have taken Breitbart media in the direction Steve Bannon has.

 

Disagree with the first part, agree with the 2nd. 

 

He was a hero to a lot of Libertarians so they don't want to think he would have supported Trump. I get that, when someone passes away who we revere we kind of try to remake or project them in our own image.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#46
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:01 PM

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That's actually what happened in March 1951.

I would have easier time buying this in January or December, because of sun angles. I think any march event would have fairly supportive upper level dynamics, not just a thin 850-700mb layer.



#47
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:11 PM

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Final February Stats

 

17035943_614396633424_488982863_o.jpg?oh

Is Silver Falls just not good at scoring snow for a foothills location? Maybe the broad valley which has the road up to Detroit have something to do with it?



#48
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:24 PM

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Is Silver Falls just not good at scoring snow for a foothills location? Maybe the broad valley which has the road up to Detroit have something to do with it?

 

Please clarify? For 1600' in the W. Cascade foothills this was a pretty typical total for this February. We haven't had great snow patterns for foothills snow in NW Oregon this year (The Coast Range is another story.). 

 

Someone I know who lives at 1000' in Sandy says they've only had about 8" this whole wither and I believe Mark Nelsen has only recorded 15" at 1100' near the mouth of the gorge. Compared to that my totals are pretty robust. 

 

Generally my area does pretty well by Oregon Cascade foothill standards. Detroit isn't much higher, but gets a lot more snow because it is much deeper into the Cascades and surrounded by 4-5,000' mountains which do a good job trapping cold air. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#49
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Please clarify? For 1600' in the W. Cascade foothills this was a pretty typical total for this February. We haven't had great snow patterns for foothills snow in NW Oregon this year (The Coast Range is another story.). 

 

Someone I know who lives at 1000' in Sandy says they've only had about 8" this whole wither and I believe Mark Nelsen has only recorded 15" at 1100' near the mouth of the gorge. Compared to that my totals are pretty robust. 

 

Generally my area does pretty well by Oregon Cascade foothill standards. Detroit isn't much higher, but gets a lot more snow because it is much deeper into the Cascades and surrounded by 4-5,000' mountains which do a good job trapping cold air. 

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.



#50
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:27 PM

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  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

I'm just looking at your signature and it says you have to go all the way back to 2011-2012 to see a good snow year. This year will probably only end up being decent. I feel like 1600' in north oregon cascades foothills should be doing a lot better, maybe a 40" average in past 5 years.

It's been a stretch of mild winters in the NW. Not much cold onshore flow. Obviously this year has been cold.