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March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:40 PM

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Those euro snow maps wow

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#102
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:46 PM

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Yea, the semantics always get me.


Have you had a chance to see tech9 in concert lately?

#103
Sounder

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:57 PM

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With any luck, I think there wont be any more accumulating snow in most lowland locations this season. We can only hope!!



#104
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:58 PM

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Have you had a chance to see tech9 in concert lately?

I've stopped listening to tech9 years ago(well except maybe I'll listen to a new song here and there cause my friends still listen to it). It's probably ironic to you but i primarily listen to EDM now, and a little bit of rock as my second favorite genre(which probably was true most of my life actually).


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#105
snow_wizard

Posted 01 March 2017 - 10:59 PM

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Notably more cold ensembles on the 0z GFS.  A number of them have an incredibly long cold snap.  Could happen.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#106
epiceast

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:00 PM

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King EURO Alert!!!

 

He takes what he gives.



#107
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:11 PM

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Those euro snow maps wow


Post wxbell maps

#108
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:25 PM

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I've stopped listening to tech9 years ago(well except maybe I'll listen to a new song here and there cause my friends still listen to it). It's probably ironic to you but i primarily listen to EDM now, and a little bit of rock as my second favorite genre(which probably was true most of my life actually).


That doesn't seem ironic to me. I like some EDM too.
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#109
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:28 PM

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Post wxbell maps

They aren't super exciting. Trace to 2 or 3" thru day 7 for the Sound. Then another inch or 2 at days 9-10.

#110
iFred

Posted 02 March 2017 - 01:00 AM

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With any luck, I think there wont be any more accumulating snow in most lowland locations this season. We can only hope!!


Praying to Snow Jebus for your blizzard.

#111
IbrChris

Posted 02 March 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Praying to Snow Jebus for your blizzard.

More 70 degree weather in Philly! I'd take that over 40 degree rain.


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#112
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 07:43 AM

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12km NAM give the south sound some snow Sunday morning.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_49.png


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#113
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 07:52 AM

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Some snow trying to sneak down into the lowland on Friday night per the 4km NAM.

 

nam4km_asnow_nwus_17.png

 

And 3km

 

nam3km_asnow_nwus_61.png


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:08 AM

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GFS alert 🚨

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#115
Bryant

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:21 AM

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With any luck, I think there wont be any more accumulating snow in most lowland locations this season. We can only hope!!


Speak for yourself, troll.

#116
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:29 AM

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GFS alert 🚨


?

#117
FroYoBro

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:30 AM

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GFS alert

 

I think I'm missing the big alert. Looks pretty similar to other runs, doesn't it? 



#118
TT-SEA

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:37 AM

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I think I'm missing the big alert. Looks pretty similar to other runs, doesn't it? 

 

 

Much colder for the end of next week compared to its 00Z run.



#119
Jesse

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:39 AM

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I think I'm missing the big alert. Looks pretty similar to other runs, doesn't it?


I don't know if everyone has picked up on it yet...but Andrew lies here for fun.
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#120
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:42 AM

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Much colder for the end of next week compared to its 00Z run.

Generally cooler overall for next week.

#121
FroYoBro

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:43 AM

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Much colder for the end of next week compared to its 00Z run.

 

Ah. I wasn't looking that far out. Still doesn't look too exciting to me. 

 

 

I think March should be the end of GFS alerts. 


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#122
Timmy

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:45 AM

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Gfs shows 6" over pdx in the next 100 hours
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#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:54 AM

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Gfs shows 6" over pdx in the next 100 hours

 

Bingo!

 

Thank you for actually looking at the models and not saying something absolutely inane like "Andrew lies here just for fun." 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#124
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:55 AM

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I don't know if everyone has picked up on it yet...but Andrew lies here for fun.

 

Wow, seriously. Maybe you should actually look at the models like Timmy did before you mouth off like an idiot. I have no idea why you have to make comments like that. 

 

16939255_10212220904347837_5376029216495


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#125
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:08 AM

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12km NAM give the south sound some snow Sunday morning.

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_49.png


Looks like it will be a little warm for much accumulation for many. Olympia area should do better than Tacoma/Swamp/swamp highlands. I expect cold rain or a sloppy mix at best.

#126
BLI snowman

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:21 AM

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Wow, seriously. Maybe you should actually look at the models like Timmy did before you mouth off like an idiot. I have no idea why you have to make comments like that. 

 

16939255_10212220904347837_5376029216495

 

 

Not going to even come close to verifying of course. Looks nice and showery though with the positioning of the low in a good spot.  Similar pattern to March 2006, which dropped 1-2" on much of the Portland area.



#127
Kayla

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Not going to even come close to verifying of course. Looks nice and showery though with the positioning of the low in a good spot.  Similar pattern to March 2006, which dropped 1-2" on much of the Portland area.

 

Yeah looks like lots of 34-36º rain showers to me but may get lucky and score 1-2" Sunday morning. Fun pattern nonetheless!



#128
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:24 AM

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GFS showing lowland snow as early as Saturday morning early.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

 

Skagit Valley cashes in.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_12.png


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Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#129
Jesse

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:27 AM

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Bingo!

Thank you for actually looking at the models and not saying something absolutely inane like "Andrew lies here just for fun."


Doesn't change the fact that you do sometimes. :)

#130
AlpineExperience

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:27 AM

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Looks good for northern areas. Hope I-90 can join the fun.
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#131
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:34 AM

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Looks good for northern areas. Hope I-90 can join the fun.

 

GFS showing snow for the East side Sunday into Monday now.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png


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Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:40 AM

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Not going to even come close to verifying of course. Looks nice and showery though with the positioning of the low in a good spot. Similar pattern to March 2006, which dropped 1-2" on much of the Portland area.


March 2006 was fun. I was up in Beaverton one of those nights and about 2" fell in the Tanesbourne area, there was an inch or two on the ground in Wilsonville driving home too.

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#133
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:42 AM

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Looks good for northern areas. Hope I-90 can join the fun.


Attached File  IMG_0596.PNG   225.92KB   0 downloads
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#134
Geos

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Sweet. I'm on the 3" line. 


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#135
AlpineExperience

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:46 AM

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IMG_0596.PNG


Looks awesome. If we can get temps slightly colder than this past event this will be even better.

#136
BLI snowman

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:46 AM

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March 2006 was fun. I was up in Beaverton one of those nights and about 2" fell in the Tanesbourne area, there was an inch or two on the ground in Wilsonville driving home too.

 

I pulled off a high of 38 on 3/9 with snow showers the entire day, even though 850mb temps never dropped below -6c. Heavy showers will do the trick.



#137
IbrChris

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:50 AM

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DJF coldest on record (airport 1940-2017), mean temp:

 

35.0  1948-49

35.7  1949-50

36.3  1978-79

36.3  1968-69

37.2  2016-17

 

Pre-PDX:

 

36.3  1889-90

36.5  1892-93

36.6  1928-29

37.5  1909-10


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#138
MossMan

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:54 AM

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I will take that! Bryant and our other northern friends i'm sure will take that map as well. 


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#139
Kayla

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:54 AM

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DJF coldest on record (airport 1940-2017), mean temp:

 

35.0  1948-49

35.7  1949-50

36.3  1978-79

36.3  1968-69

37.2  2016-17

 

Pre-PDX:

 

36.3  1889-90

36.5  1892-93

36.6  1928-29

37.5  1909-10

 

Funny how the streak of above average monthly temps seems like a distant memory now. What an amazing winter for PDX!

 

Yet also scary to think that they may not see such an anomaly cold winter for another 30-50 years!



#140
stuffradio

Posted 02 March 2017 - 09:59 AM

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Bingo!

 

Thank you for actually looking at the models and not saying something absolutely inane like "Andrew lies here just for fun."

Let's be honest, we were all thinking it.



#141
IbrChris

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:04 AM

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A cool and wet couple weeks in the offing...snow levels around 1500-2000' through early next week rising a bit mid week and falling back down toward 2000-3000' through mid-month. QPF looks robust...130-150% of normal for PDX. Good spring snow pattern, resorts should see increasing base depth.


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#142
Jesse

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:18 AM

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Ensembles appear to be trending colder.
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#143
Front Ranger

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:21 AM

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DJF coldest on record (airport 1940-2017), mean temp:

35.0 1948-49
35.7 1949-50
36.3 1978-79
36.3 1968-69
37.2 2016-17

Pre-PDX:

36.3 1889-90
36.5 1892-93
36.6 1928-29
37.5 1909-10


This has indeed been a poor man's 1948-49.

Now maybe next winter can be a poor man's 1949-50. These things are streaky!

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:43 AM

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Maps maps maps!

 

17039127_10211588517806345_2789462785798


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#145
IbrChris

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Maps maps maps!

 

17039127_10211588517806345_2789462785798

Those darn 1000' snow levels.


The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#146
Jesse

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:51 AM

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Maps maps maps!

17039127_10211588517806345_2789462785798




#147
umadbro

Posted 02 March 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Maps maps maps!

17039127_10211588517806345_2789462785798


Paints a 2-3" bullseye right over me. Fortunately I already know it ain't happening.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#148
TT-SEA

Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:00 AM

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Those darn 1000' snow levels.

 

Make it 1,200 feet and I will be happy.    Would rather not see any more snow at this point. 


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#149
MossMan

Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:08 AM

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Make it 1,200 feet and I will be happy.    Would rather not see any more snow at this point. 

Keep that boat winterized a little longer, looks like we are not quite done yet. I sure hope this summer ends up okay... i'm still fearing a dud however. Jesse's mind powers are trying hard to give us a cold and wet summer I have a feeling! 


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#150
Bryant

Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:09 AM

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I will take that! Bryant and our other northern friends i'm sure will take that map as well.


You got that right :)
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