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March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Take a deep breath.

 

Some of us like cold and dark weather, and would like to somehow magically have the climate of the Faeroes transplanted over our homes.

 

I looked up their climo and we are pretty close November-March.

 

The rest of the year is way warmer here on average, though, which I'm ok with.

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Feeling some deja vu on this one, looks very similar to the setup that was predicted last Sunday. That one turned out to be a dud, this will probably be even more marginal so we'll see. Otherwise, things look pretty unremarkable on the 0z GFS; incredible how different this is from the ECMWF.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

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You can sure why the ECMWF took the path it did. Not the most likely outcome, but still possible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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About the best pattern you could ask for for widespread lowland snow in March. Especially later on in the run. Very 1951-esque.

One thing Tim didn't mention about April 1951 is the abnormally cold nights. There are places near Seattle that dropped to 20 well into the month. Bothell had 20 mins of freezing or below. It would be interesting to follow that year. 1951-52 was a cold weak Nino winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Feeling some deja vu on this one, looks very similar to the setup that was predicted last Sunday. That one turned out to be a dud, this will probably be even more marginal so we'll see. Otherwise, things look pretty unremarkable on the 0z GFS; incredible how different this is from the ECMWF.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

 

Probably a shot of a few inches of snow up here, and not a ton more...Depends on moisture. About a 48 hour window for accumulating snow. Definitely not looking like anything more significant than last weekend, though maybe slightly cooler. So could put up and impressively cold 35/30 type day here Sunday. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One thing Tim didn't mention about April 1951 is the abnormally cold nights. There are places near Seattle that dropped to 20 well into the month. Bothell had 20 mins of freezing or below. It would be interesting to follow that year. 1951-52 was a cold weak Nino winter.

 

 

I did say the month featured many warm days and cool nights.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The WRF shows it certainly cold enough for snow Sunday morning with moisture moving through. Looks like a pretty good setup.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The WRF shows it certainly cold enough for snow Sunday morning with moisture moving through. Looks like a pretty good setup.

Pretty wide swath of snow shown for southern BC that morning.

 

A lot of uncertainty in the GFS ensembles but they definitely leave the door open for a mid month cold snap.

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Lots of ensemble spread.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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WRF showing some light snow Salem/South early Sunday morning

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow24.84.0000.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Accumulating snow in March in PNW is by definition heavy snow. At least the rates are.

Where is our friend Heavy Snow to weigh in when we need him.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Those euro snow maps wow

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Have you had a chance to see tech9 in concert lately?

I've stopped listening to tech9 years ago(well except maybe I'll listen to a new song here and there cause my friends still listen to it). It's probably ironic to you but i primarily listen to EDM now, and a little bit of rock as my second favorite genre(which probably was true most of my life actually).

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Notably more cold ensembles on the 0z GFS.  A number of them have an incredibly long cold snap.  Could happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I've stopped listening to tech9 years ago(well except maybe I'll listen to a new song here and there cause my friends still listen to it). It's probably ironic to you but i primarily listen to EDM now, and a little bit of rock as my second favorite genre(which probably was true most of my life actually).

That doesn't seem ironic to me. I like some EDM too.

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Some snow trying to sneak down into the lowland on Friday night per the 4km NAM.

 

 

And 3km

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think I'm missing the big alert. Looks pretty similar to other runs, doesn't it? 

 

 

Much colder for the end of next week compared to its 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gfs shows 6" over pdx in the next 100 hours

 

Bingo!

 

Thank you for actually looking at the models and not saying something absolutely inane like "Andrew lies here just for fun." 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don't know if everyone has picked up on it yet...but Andrew lies here for fun.

 

Wow, seriously. Maybe you should actually look at the models like Timmy did before you mouth off like an idiot. I have no idea why you have to make comments like that. 

 

16939255_10212220904347837_5376029216495

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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