March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Jä it was 55/31 here today. We took a hike out in the Gorge and it was a little chilly around Cape Horn with a moderate east wind, even in the sunshine.

 

Plants are still way behind in the Portland area too. Plum trees still haven't blossomed, and they usually are in full bloom by the end of the first week of the month.

No plum blossoms here yet either. But they had just started at this time last year we are obviously way behind 2015 and 2016. I think it was 2008 when the salmon berries were just leafing out in early May. Certainly surprised to see them starting already today.

[FroYoBro]

Blazers are going to the playoffs btw, 

[Deweydog]

Blazers are going to the playoffs btw,

F*ck you.

[TT-SEA]

My son took this picture at Snoqualmie Summit today. It got quite warm in the afternoon and they were skiing in just sweatshirts and his face is pretty sunburned. Great conditions though and I bet they will be open weekends until the 1st of May.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your area is running 124% of normal for snowpack. I really wouldn't be too worried.

 

The next 7-10 days should feature a lot of snow above 5,000'.

The numbers I posted earlier for Crater Lake should be cause for concern. With global warming snow will melt off sooner!

[Jesse]

The numbers I posted earlier for Crater Lake should be cause for concern. With global warming snow will melt off sooner!

Ah you're trolling, got it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ah you're trolling, got it.

A wise man would review the data.

[Jesse]

My son took this picture at Snoqualmie Summit today. It got quite warm in the afternoon and they were skiing in just sweatshirts and his face is pretty sunburned. Great conditions though and I bet they will be open weekends until the 1st of May.

 

 

Looks like a real scorcher up there.

[snow_wizard]

The sun is dead!

 

No spots for two weeks now and the flux numbers are rock steady at full blown solar minimum levels. If we really have 3 years until solar min this will be the deepest minimum in ages. Of perhaps even greater interest is the AP index is currently running in the 1 to 2 range. Many solar cycles never achieve that. By all measures this is big league quiet.

 

A quick recap of what this might mean for us...

 

Very deep solar minimums are thought to cause a much slower atmosphere in the winter months which equates to much more blocking. It is also thought the GOA and north Atlantic are favored locations for anomalous blocking during extreme minimums which means much colder winters for North America and Europe.

 

Another aspect that is exciting for us is deep solar minimums and grand minimums have a tendency to equate to fewer El Ninos.

[Jesse]

I ate lunch by a south facing window today with the thermostat turned up to 93 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a real scorcher up there.

 

That was taken in the morning... it was in the 40s by afternoon.   That is warm when skiing particularly with the higher sun angle.    My son said everyone was eating outside this afternoon which was not happening much this year so far.  

[TT-SEA]

I ate lunch by a south facing window today with the thermostat turned up to 93 degrees. 

 

You need to come visit on a day like today!    We have a perfectly placed deck... did not think about it when designing the house but its awesome on days like today.    No so much when its actually warm outside (above 70)... at least not without shade from the umbrellas.

 

But even in the garden it was perfectly comfortable working in a t-shirt and shorts.

[Jesse]

A wise man would review the data.

 

I looked over the graph and saw the recent dip toward average. The forecast doesn't have me 2 concerned though.

[snow_wizard]

The numbers I posted earlier for Crater Lake should be cause for concern. With global warming snow will melt off sooner!

I'm sure you're just trolling here.

[snow_wizard]

I looked over the graph and saw the recent dip toward average. The forecast doesn't have me 2 concerned though.

For sure...after the coldest winter in 25 years and much wetter than normal conditions in all except January I think we'll be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Inconvenient Truth

[crf450ish]

The sun is dead!

 

No spots for two weeks now and the flux numbers are rock steady at full blown solar minimum levels. If we really have 3 years until solar min this will be the deepest minimum in ages. Of perhaps even greater interest is the AP index is currently running in the 1 to 2 range. Many solar cycles never achieve that. By all measures this is big league quiet.

 

A quick recap of what this might mean for us...

 

Very deep solar minimums are thought to cause a much slower atmosphere in the winter months which equates to much more blocking. It is also thought the GOA and north Atlantic are favored locations for anomalous blocking during extreme minimums which means much colder winters for North America and Europe.

 

Another aspect that is exciting for us is deep solar minimums and grand minimums have a tendency to equate to fewer El Ninos.

I agree with all of this.  I honestly feel like with this minimum, mankind is going to experience something that we've never experienced in modern ages- growing glaciers....

[Jesse]

You need to come visit on a day like today!    We have a perfectly placed deck... did not think about it when designing the house but its awesome on days like today.    No so much when its actually warm outside (above 70)... at least not without shade from the umbrellas.

 

But even in the garden it was perfectly comfortable working in a t-shirt and shorts.

 

Today was definitely beautiful. Cool sunshine in March is the best.

[TT-SEA]

Today was definitely beautiful. Cool sunshine in March is the best.

 

 

-3 departure at SEA.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows next Sunday is similar to today... and Monday looks nice as well.

 

At least we are getting a couple nice days per week now.   Baby steps!    Makes a big difference though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully we can keep building the snow pack through April.

[snow_wizard]

I agree with all of this.  I honestly feel like with this minimum, mankind is going to experience something that we've never experienced in modern ages- growing glaciers....

I'm pretty stoked about it. This winter was probably only a taste. It's pretty fascinating how they have been able to reconstruct the little ice age to figure out what atmospheric anomalies took place to cause the dramatically colder winters. It took them a while to confirm our winters here were greatly effected along with the NE part of the country. They found evidence Alaska actually had slightly warmer winters while ours were considerably colder. That obviously means GOA blocking.

 

Recent evidence of solar minimums being favorable for us can easily be seen with the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97, and then 2006-07 through 2008-09. Then of course the mid 1980s were very cold also. Pretty compelling stuff!

[snow_wizard]

Finished with a nice crisp 52-29 here today. I could use a few more days like this.

[TT-SEA]

44 here this morning... must have an east breeze.   That is warmer than most spots.  Looks like a gorgeous sunrise coming.   Should be a nice day.

[Geos]

Went down to 35 deg. here. Looking at about 57 today. 

 

Got a deficit in over much of Washington still for this month.

 

[Phil]

Huge swing in the IO regime since this time last year, and it will have consequences this spring/summer.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/31F1AE6E-31CB-4B84-9099-6A1415A886E4_zpsrhkoarq0.jpgA cool IO represents a large reduction in the poleward transfer heat and moisture during the warm season, and if this is indeed a larger scale regime change, it suggests the ATL will follow suit over the next few years.

 

The cold IO is a product of the same systematic regime that will cool the NH and warm the Antarctic over the next few years.

[Jesse]

Gusty east winds at Troutdale this morning. Breezy out here as well.

[Geos]

The maps show the positive departure in the precipitation well.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

SSTAs change over the last week... looks like warming across the entire ENSO region.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Here is the current SSTA map...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Tyler Mode]

Just returned from Iceland a few days ago.  Their wild spring weather makes ours look like a nice summer day!  Snow, hail, heavy rain, but most consistently, wind.  On an Island in the open ocean with very few trees, I guess it can be expected.

[Geos]

Sunrise on the first day of spring. 

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Just returned from Iceland a few days ago.  Their wild spring weather makes ours look like a nice summer day!  Snow, hail, heavy rain, but most consistently, wind.  On an Island in the open ocean with very few trees, I guess it can be expected.

 

Yeah I would imagine that would be a windy place. They get the arctic air masses that spill off from Greenland and then the warmer storm systems that come up from the Canadian Maritimes/Gulf Stream. 

[TT-SEA]

Nice timing shown for the rain tomorrow.   Looks like a band of rain moves through in the morning... probably be weakened by offshore flow.   And then there is a distinct dry period for the Seattle area for the entire afternoon.   

 

Although it will rain on most days this week... the nature and duration of the rainy periods seems to be much improved over recent weeks.    All rainy periods are not created equal.   The pattern this week is much more normal for late March.   

[Kayla]

Went down to 35 deg. here. Looking at about 57 today. 

 

Got a deficit in over much of Washington still for this month.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/nw/MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Bullseye torching right over Gallatin County!   It's been an incredibly warm month so far.

 

Snowing this morning though!

[ShawniganLake]

28F here this morning with heavy frost. Just a hint of green is starting to show on my otherwise brown lawn

[TT-SEA]

28F here this morning with heavy frost. Just a hint of green is starting to show on my otherwise brown lawn

 

Wow... getting close to mowing here.  Grass is definitely green and growing now. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the HRRR for tomorrow afternoon... not bad.  

 

[Phil]

In regards to the evolving forcing regime, there are two areas of interest going forward.

 

For one, there's the subsidence over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, associated with the La Niña mode Walker/Hadley circulations, which continues unabated for the time being. This corresponds to the enhanced maritime/WPAC convection, and teleconnects with a -PNA type circulation over the NPAC.

 

There's also enhanced EPAC/WHEM convection developing in synchronicity with the warm SSTAs there. This teleconnects to a Plains/SE ridge via poleward mass displacement relative to the convective longitude.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/753BCCC3-ED73-4383-B426-909E14DC9FE7_zpsnukikhj0.jpeg

 

Should this regime continue into/through the warm season, it will promote a -PNA/SE ridge pattern over North America, with a trough over the west coast/GOA, and a heat ridge over the Plains and SE States, perhaps similar years like 2010, or portions of last year.

[DareDuck]

Your area is running 124% of normal for snowpack. I really wouldn't be too worried.

 

The next 7-10 days should feature a lot of snow above 5,000'.

121% today, down 21% from just two weeks ago. Not worried yet, just mentioned how I don't want to go down the same path as last year and lose most of our snowpack early.

[Jesse]

Wow... getting close to mowing here.  Grass is definitely green and growing now. 

 

Grass has been really slow to get going down here too. You must live in a warm bubble.