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2/28 - 3/1 Spring Storm


Tom

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Parts of the Midwest/Lakes will end Feb in Spring fashion with a large area under the risk of severe wx.  Meanwhile, north of the "cheddar curtain" and in N MI snow will fall....but how much???  A dynamic frontal system will have all the ingredients in play to produce some interesting wx around these parts.  Let's discuss...

 

12z NAM - Para is showing some intense warm front rains in IA/IL around dinner time today...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

 

Squall line forms and the potential for over night Tornado's are on the table in S IL/MO/IN....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_23.png

 

 

 

 

Snow potential...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017022812/nam3km_asnow_ncus_39.png

 

 

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Been a long time since I had this in my zone

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Futurecast shows SMI filling in and changing over to snow on the back side of the SLP vs those maps above. Hmm...guess we'll see who's right soon enough

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dynamic setup for you guys in illinois. This is cooking up to be a monster outbreak.

Should be interesting around here to say the least.  2 severe wx set ups in a February to Remember...this particular one looks to finish off with a bang...

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Shear values are incredible it looks like. Haven't seen the SPC issue a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes in I don't know how long.

This severe wx season is going to be quite interesting I'd imagine.  If the LRC's ridge develops in the south/central Plains I can see many "Ring of Fire" patterns developing.

 

Meantime, looks like the clouds are clearing in IA/MO...day time heating starting up...

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Shear values are incredible it looks like. Haven't seen the SPC issue a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes in I don't know how long.

 

And just about exactly 5 yrs sine the March 5th 2012 event.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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SPC just issued a Meso. with 80% Tornado Watch issuance likely for most of the CWA. Wondering if it will be a PDS watch, though I am young, I can't remember the last time in February my area, this far N, was in an enhanced risk for severe weather. Definitely going to be active to say the least. 

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Cool to see an entire state the size of IL under a tornado watch. Also cool to see a WWA 2 counties north of there in WI. Spring storms for the win.

March rolling in like a Lion!  To bad this couldn't be a full blown blizzard some where... ;)

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My forecast has it all, from severe weather later tonight, flooding, very strong winds, possibly record warmth, colder air arriving and potential for accumulating snowfall later tomorrow afternoon and evening (generally in the 1-3inch category "Big Woop"). Too bad it cant be a full blown snowstorm with 12"+. :wacko: :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tornado Watch just issued for all of IL!!!  Impressive....

Something you don't usually see often, that's for sure.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I wonder if this storm has potential to overachieve in accumulations. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom that line forming between DeKalb and Rockford has its right blinker on. Might be fun for you in a bit. Man severe wx is so much better than tracking winter storms.

 

I now see 1-3" in my point for tonight. We might get more snow in the first hour of March than we did all of Feb.

Explosive radar tonight! That batch of storms might miss me to the NW and hit McHenry and Lake county.

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The radar is down due to the tornado that rolled through near it.

It's been down since yesterday according to the radar status message:

 

361

NOUS63 KLOT 272103

FTMLOT

Message Date: Feb 27 2017 21:04:27

 

The KLOT WSR-88D will be offline Until Further Notice due to equipment failure.

Replacement parts have been backordered, and may not be here for a few days.

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