3/10 - 3/11 Possible Snowstorm

[Tom]

March continues to provide us with a chaotic weather pattern as the wild swings of March continue.  Where will the snow fall this time???  Will Chicago break or continue their 1" snow-less streak???  Looking like the later as we get closer to the event.

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

[gimmesnow]

Really want to see this shift north, but I don't think it'll matter for me, the storms tonight are strong enough to cause a lot of problems for me and snowboarding. I would love to get hit with this but we're just not going to be that lucky. Are the other models shifting south too or is it just GFS?

[Bellona]

I would be very surpised I'd this didn't come back north. They have all winter long.

[Tom]

Really want to see this shift north, but I don't think it'll matter for me, the storms tonight are strong enough to cause a lot of problems for me and snowboarding. I would love to get hit with this but we're just not going to be that lucky. Are the other models shifting south too or is it just GFS?

Euro pretty much holding steady with the southern solution.  GGEM/Ukie are struggling and GFS trending south slightly each run out this way for Chicago.

[james1976]

Wow that is going way south

[gimmesnow]

I better watch this one really close then. Models aren't in my favor but the history of this winter is. We're still far enough out that they could change a lot.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking the South trend. Last storm worked in our favor in the fact that we actually got measurable snow for once. Waiting for the 00z Euro run to come out to that range. Hope we get a respectable amount of snow before all is said and done. The most we have gotten in one system this season has been 2". That is not normal. Either way, I refuse to believe GEM. They have hypecasted for us this whole season.

 

EDIT: Eh. GFS likes us and Euro hates us. It's been the opposite this whole season. Hah.

[Money]

Euro is way weak and south this run. Barely anything 

[Grizzcoat]

06GFS not running yet and it's 4:43am

[GDR]

Wagons south looks like a swing and a miss for 98 percent of the forum

[Grizzcoat]

DMX not really impressed (dry air)   06GFS says otherwise

 

Cloud cover should be on the uptick Thursday in the mid to upper
levels. As the aforementioned Hudson Bay low moves over the NE
CONUS, a 1040 mb high looks to ride southeastward through southern
Canada, nearing the Minnesota/Canada border by 12z Sun. This should
bring drier, NE air in the near-sfc levels. Aloft, an impulse looks
to eject off the Pacific Ocean low and race eastward with the upper
jet towards Iowa. The source of this impulse traces back well into
the Pacific, so timing and location of this shortwave has a fair
amount of room for variation between now and Saturday. Initial looks
at the profile shows decent saturation aloft, coupled with adequate
mid-level frontogenetical forcing. Our problem may be getting precip
down to the sfc. At this range, in the regime of NE near-sfc flow,
models tend to underdo amount of dry air with a large high to the
north. Some GFSensemble perturbations exceeding 0.25 inches of
QPF, which seems well overdone. As of now, setup is for a majority
of precip to fall in the form of snow. Will keep an eye on trends
the next few model packages.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS-

[james1976]

Way south. Yup i can already see dry air killing this thing for me.

[St Paul Storm]

Cold, dry air moving in from the north. Not much chance of a northward shift. Congrats St Louis and Evansville.

[james1976]

Chicago streak may continue

[GDR]

It will continue

[Snowlover76]

Crap. I don't want any snow

[GDR]

You won't have to worry it will push south

[Tom]

00z GEFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030700/126/snod.conus.png

 

06z GEFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030706/120/snod.conus.png

[Accu35mike]

Well prob Louisville Kentucky for me

[Jaycee]

I'm liking the South trend. Last storm worked in our favor in the fact that we actually got measurable snow for once. Waiting for the 00z Euro run to come out to that range. Hope we get a respectable amount of snow before all is said and done. The most we have gotten in one system this season has been 2". That is not normal. Either way, I refuse to believe GEM. They have hypecasted for us this whole season.

 

EDIT: Eh. GFS likes us and Euro hates us. It's been the opposite this whole season. Hah.

 

Hey man! Awesome to have you on board, glad I have someone to vent to given LNK is shaft-city this year. I honestly don't want snow, I'll take severe weather any day (again, missed us yesterday ofc), my doubts of us getting more than 2" are at an all time high.

[Tom]

I'm liking the South trend. Last storm worked in our favor in the fact that we actually got measurable snow for once. Waiting for the 00z Euro run to come out to that range. Hope we get a respectable amount of snow before all is said and done. The most we have gotten in one system this season has been 2". That is not normal. Either way, I refuse to believe GEM. They have hypecasted for us this whole season.

 

EDIT: Eh. GFS likes us and Euro hates us. It's been the opposite this whole season. Hah.

Welcome to the board!  Nice to see another NE poster.  Trends are looking better for LNK but the cut off with this system will likely be harsh.  These type of waves are difficult to pin down.

[Tom]

Over powering HP from the north is killing this systems potential.  Not a favorable set up at all.  When has it been this season???  

 

12z GFS ticking it farther south...the way this is trending it may become a non-event...

[Tom]

GFS may give OMA/LNK peeps some snow...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030712/102/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

GFS may give OMA/LNK peeps some snow...

I'll take 3". That'll at least keep our least seasonal snowfall record safe.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...E NE/IA/STL storm track...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030712/120/snod.conus.png

[james1976]

Cold and dry. NOT what i want in March.

[midwest buildit]

Did anyone really think this would actually hit northeast illinois. Lol. The great Snow drought of 2017.

[Minny_Weather]

Hey man! Awesome to have you on board, glad I have someone to vent to given LNK is shaft-city this year. I honestly don't want snow, I'll take severe weather any day (again, missed us yesterday ofc), my doubts of us getting more than 2" are at an all time high.

Haha, I'm responsible for the boring weather we've had since September. I came here from Texas, and I seem to cause a weather bubble everywhere I go!

 

Euro run looks encouraging, but its' hard to trust it just yet because it's the first run that has treated us decently.

[Minny_Weather]

I just hope we get more than 60-90 miles North of us. They've stolen all of our snow the entire season!

[BrianJK]

Did anyone really think this would actually hit northeast illinois. Lol. The great Snow drought of 2017.

Never bought into it, not even for a second.

[Jaycee]

18z GFS is weaker, but a good hit for Omaha. Heaviest snows run almost directly down the Missouri river. Lincoln shaft in effect.

[NEJeremy]

Omaha NWS not impressed so far

[Andrew NE]

Omaha NWS not impressed so far

 

Saw that too, I know they were busy yesterday with all the severe weather, but was hoping for a nice write up this afternoon.... that did not happen!

[centralweather44]

Not to worried about accumulation in Lincoln. Ground temps are already mid 40's and up to 50's on the south sides of buildings. If we do get 1-3" it shouldn't stick or effect travel all that much

[Minny_Weather]

Saw that too, I know they were busy yesterday with all the severe weather, but was hoping for a nice write up this afternoon.... that did not happen!

I have never been thrilled with his AFDs. Plus with the way he abbreviates everything, it's impossible to understand anyway. Zapotocny should have us covered in the morning.

 

18z GFS hates us again. Then again, 18z runs are usually not the sole thing to watch for things like this.

[Minny_Weather]

Not to worried about accumulation in Lincoln. Ground temps are already mid 40's and up to 50's on the south sides of buildings. If we do get 1-3" it shouldn't stick or effect travel all that much

I think you're right to an extent. Since our last snowfall of a whopping 1.3" we have been consistently above normal, and that is definitely a good point. However, before the last event, the highs were in the 70s two days before, and in the 50s the day before, and didn't have much a problem making for messy travel. Granted, there was hail still on the ground when the snow started (I drove in the hail, yay.) It didn't melt immediately on pavement, but at the same time, it was coming down pretty hard for a couple of hours. I think this is the type of thing where it depends on A) How hard it is snowing (likely moderate at best), can the rate it is snowing overcome any possible snowmelt, and B ) How cold it is on Friday, as in will it be cool enough to warm the ground to where mid-20s temps the night before don't do too much of an impact. But yeah, accumulations, if any occur, should not be significant and should for the most part be grass-only. Story of this Winter. First step is to see if we even get measurable snow.

[james1976]

Euro must really suck. Hardly any mention of the last 2 runs.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro must really suck. Hardly any mention of the last 2 runs.

Euro is much like the GFS in that it is lamer and lamer in max totals. Max amounts are about 4-5" near St. Louis on the 12z run thru 18z on Saturday. Places with 2"+ totals are hard to explain, but basically S. IL, East Central MO, Central Iowa, Eastern SD, and Eastern NE are given the "best" treatment by the 12z run. If you base everything on trends lately, this will be a near non-event that will melt within 24-36 hours for most.

[Snoorani]

Nam is north