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3/10 - 3/11 Possible Snowstorm

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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 March 2017 - 10:24 PM

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Euro has no storm at this point. Just a clipper-like thing. Max amount ~7" in Central SD. Omaha ~2, Lincoln dusting.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#52
Tom

Posted 08 March 2017 - 06:46 AM

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12z NAM...whiff for LNK/OMA as the band sets up to the north.  Hits S IA pretty good.  Trending towards a non-event for the majority of our posters.

 

 



#53
Tom

Posted 08 March 2017 - 06:47 AM

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06z GFS...still gives those some hope in E NE...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#54
Tom

Posted 08 March 2017 - 07:59 AM

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12 GFS pretty similar to previous run.  Weenie band hugging the NE/IA border...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#55
FarmerRick

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:00 AM

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Less for Lincoln, a bit more for Northern Missouri in the 12z run

 

EDIT:  Darnit, Tom beat me to it by 1 minute....   :wacko:

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#56
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:39 AM

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Definitely would love a Western trend, but yeah, not getting my hopes up with that. Let's see if Euro treats us poorly again, if so I'll be about ready to throw in the towel with this system.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#57
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:25 AM

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Looking at the Lincoln forecast, OAX seems to be buying into the more vigorous models, giving us snow much of Friday night and up until 2pm on Saturday. I can only hope at this point  :rolleyes:


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#58
Tom

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:25 AM

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Looking at the Lincoln forecast, OAX seems to be buying into the more vigorous models, giving us snow much of Friday night and up until 2pm on Saturday. I can only hope at this point  :rolleyes:

Going to be a hard forecast.  How did the Euro look?



#59
Money

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:27 AM

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The max snowfall on 12z euro is like 1-2 inches in southern Iowa. 



#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:42 AM

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Going to be a hard forecast.  How did the Euro look?

2" Between OMA and LNK, 4" in Northeast NE. For Iowa, shows 3" amounts in a diagonal, thin line from NW to SE Iowa. Overall unimpressive, but I'll take anything for our least snowfall record to not be shattered.

 

An interesting thing, it wallops much of Iowa with the early week storm system next week, giving some areas in North Central parts of the state 6-8" from that storm system. South Dakota too. Goose egg for here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#61
BrianJK

Posted 08 March 2017 - 02:26 PM

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Non-event? Well that's weird. 😂

#62
GDR

Posted 08 March 2017 - 02:30 PM

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Let me get this straight, we went from lots of snow to pixie dust?

#63
NEJeremy

Posted 08 March 2017 - 03:09 PM

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18Z still a good hit for areas right along the river in Iowa/Nebraska. Going to be close which I hate...

Attached Files



#64
FarmerRick

Posted 08 March 2017 - 07:37 PM

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Jim Flowers just called for 5-6 for Omaha via facebook video.



#65
gosaints

Posted 08 March 2017 - 07:54 PM

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Good pinning the band location down its like 2 counties wide

#66
Tom

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:07 PM

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RPM paints 7" for OMA and 4" for KC where the heaviest axis sets up.

#67
Money

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:08 PM

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0z GFS:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#68
Andrew NE

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:23 PM

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I don't know if I'm buying the juiced up totals on the GFS, this thing is going to be moving pretty quick.

#69
james1976

Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:36 PM

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I don't know if I'm buying the juiced up totals on the GFS, this thing is going to be moving pretty quick.

Money is posting Kuchera ratios. Always juiced.



#70
james1976

Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:38 PM

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Thats a tight band. Geez. Someone will prolly cash big though.
Whats that 1-2 weenie band skating thru S MN and S WI from?



#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:39 PM

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With a little 20 mile nudge West LNK could look at advisory criteria. Not as good as warning criteria but I'll take anything with how pathetic this Winter has been. Another thing is that for most of us, the ratio should not outrageously large at all (at least not compared to our 12/3 snowfall, which was 6:1).


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#72
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:49 PM

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I hate the 00z Euro run. 4" from Norfolk-Omaha with a sharp cutoff the farther SW you go. Iowa gets a miniscule amount. Trace=.5" for LNK.

 

Congrats to anyone in SW/SC Missouri if Euro verifies.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#73
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:33 AM

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12z NAM showing similar placement compared to the GFS of the heaviest band.  Showing an intense 1-2"/hr weenie band near OMA.

 

10:1 ratios...

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png



#74
NebraskaWX

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:44 AM

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HOLY CURVEBALL!!!

 

12z GFS now bullseyes Lincoln. Showing 6"+ for the entire city down through Falls City area.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#75
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:46 AM

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HOLY CURVEBALL!!!

 

12z GFS now bullseyes Lincoln. Showing 6"+ for the entire city down through Falls City area.

That was a great run for you guys!


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#76
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:49 AM

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Close up...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#77
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:50 AM

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Gabe back in the mix...and LNK posters...


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#78
NebraskaWX

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Gabe back in the mix...and LNK posters...

Wow, really close call actually. Looked like LNK got smoked from instantweathermaps. Regardless that heavy snow band splits the city on the dot almost. I'm liking the chances down here, we had something similar a few years ago and got clocked in Lincoln. Hoping for the best, despite me being out of town this weekend XD


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#79
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Gotta see how 12z Euro treats us. Then again, this wouldn't be the first time this Winter that Euro has completely screwed up (flashback to the great disappearing snowstorm of December 2016). OAX still not necessarily on board with higher totals, then again, can we blame them?


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#80
FarmerRick

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Does anyone expect the westward trend in the track to continue?



#81
Andrew NE

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:12 AM

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The system isnt on shore yet so there will likely be some movement... but I couldnt tell ya what direction.


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#82
NebraskaWX

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Canadian is definitely having some of that heavy snow action.

 

 

Attached Files


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#83
NEJeremy

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:10 AM

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I just hope this thing doesn't shift far enough west to take Omaha out of the heavier snowfall. It'd be nice to have a wider band for everyone here in eastern Nebraska. Omaha NWS said there could be a band of 4-6" somewhere in the area.



#84
Hawkeye

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:17 AM

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UK has jumped sw, now has best snow from Lincoln southward..  Omaha doesn't even get 0.20" precip this run.

 

PA_000-060_0000.gif


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#85
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:26 AM

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Someone in the OAX area could see WSW criteria if trends continue well. Gotta get the Euro on board first.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#86
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:29 AM

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Someone in the OAX area could see WSW criteria if trends continue well. Gotta get the Euro on board first.

I can see that happening, esp with the GEFS trending wetter for OMA/LNK...

 

qpf_acc.conus.png



#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:41 AM

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12z Euro seems to be a bit late coming in. Typically starts to come in about now. This will definitely be a nailbiter, if the Euro is on board this storm is basically gonna happen.

 

GEFS also pleases me. All but 3 or 4 members seem to give us >2".

 

EDIT: Euro starting to come in finally.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#88
gosaints

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:11 AM

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EURO SW and weaker



#89
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:21 AM

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Euro has a Max amount of ~4" in NE KS. 3" in LNK. Makes people in Omaha depressed. This is disregarding the areas which got spoiled in the last storm, who may be spoiled again.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#90
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:23 AM

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I'd go with 3-6" with isolated spots up to 8". The snowfall rates are what may drive the NWS offices to issue a warning if trends continue.

#91
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:31 AM

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I'd go with 3-6" with isolated spots up to 8". The snowfall rates are what may drive the NWS offices to issue a warning if trends continue.

I have to agree. Euro is a weak outliar right now, especially looking at the fact that no other models are trending weak right now and we're about 36 hours out from the onset. Wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued after 18z runs come out if those said trends continue.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#92
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:03 PM

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Wow. 18Z NAM shows a sad, yet realistic scenario where dry air kills most SE Nebraskans.

 

c82ea18c202f9f4c5830e7b45bd50fbe.png


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#93
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:46 PM

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18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...



#94
NEJeremy

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:47 PM

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first time this winter I've had the "heavy snow" wording in my forecast. Also highest amount forecasted for one storm for me. I hope it verifies! I've already promised my daughter we'd go sledding on Saturday morning!

 

Friday Night
Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:47 PM

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... Wow. Gotta take it for a grain of 18z salt, but holy paralyzing snowstorm on 18z GFS  :o

 

d29608cee29cd865ba41256bf0dbb8c3.png


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#96
NEJeremy

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:50 PM

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18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...

Yuck, that gives us only 2-3" now in Omaha.... I guess it's the 18Z so we'll see what the 0Z does tonight.



#97
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:50 PM

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first time this winter I've had the "heavy snow" wording in my forecast. Also highest amount forecasted for one storm for me. I hope it verifies! I've already promised my daughter we'd go sledding on Saturday morning!

 

Friday Night
Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

OAX still doesn't like LNK. Don't see why they are treating Omaha so well and Lincoln so poorly when most models have trended towards giving at least both semi-healthy amounts. They have us getting an inch and that's it.

 

Friday Night
Snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind 6 to 9 mph.

 

 

The HWO is also very confident that areas West of LNK will not see much snow, which GFS and Euro have both suggested the contrary.

 

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A band of snow is forecast to develop across the area Friday night
into Saturday morning. Highest accumulations are expected over
eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa where three to six inches is
possible. Trace to two inch amounts are forecast for the western
parts of the outlook area from Albion to Lincoln to Beatrice
westward.

Remember to follow the forecast through the event and expect some
forecast changes.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#98
FarmerRick

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:30 PM

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18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...

 

 

I see an OmaDome forming...    :o



#99
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 04:17 PM

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Thats a narrow band!

#100
NH4NU

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:07 PM

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Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.