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Spring Came Early. Scientists Say Climate Change Is a Culprit.

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#1
happ

Posted 08 March 2017 - 12:23 PM

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https://www.nytimes....WT.nav=top-news



#2
iFred

Posted 08 March 2017 - 12:45 PM

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That late Feburary growth.

Attached Files



#3
Phil

Posted 08 March 2017 - 12:46 PM

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https://www.nytimes....WT.nav=top-news


What a load of crap. Just two days ago, the coldest 850mb temperatures ever recorded (since at least the 1950s) were observed over Canada. Was this climate change too?
  • luminen, Timmy_Supercell and Mr Marine Layer like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#4
Phil

Posted 08 March 2017 - 01:09 PM

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The statement in reference, from a spokesman for the WWA (which is essentially an activist group) claims the February warmth was "linked" to climate change, without providing any quantitative reasoning, or even a mere statistical regression, which is convenient because most of the warmest winter months in the US on record took place over 70 years ago, during the 1930s and even back in the 19th century, and this February falls within a few standard deviations from the mean, as the other months in question have.

Even ignoring statistical randomness, before making claims regarding attribution, one must eliminate a slew of variables that are known to have been responsible for changes in circulation, including the BDC/equator-pole O^3 gradient, Hadley Cell migration and weakening, reversal of the Walker/Hadley intensity ratio due to super low frequency changes in the longitudinal equatorial Pacific thermal gradient, etc.

They have done none of these things, and instead have opted for a snappy press release designed to generate headlines without any actual science there. Pathetic.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#5
happ

Posted 08 March 2017 - 01:13 PM

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iFred, on 08 Mar 2017 - 12:45 PM, said:

That late Feburary growth.

 

Illustrates the cool temperature anomaly in the West this year.



#6
stuffradio

Posted 08 March 2017 - 04:01 PM

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That late Feburary growth.

Is the left picture early Feb and the right late Feb?



#7
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:22 PM

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Definitely think there is some sort of climate change as we are having more tornadoes than ever in the middle of the country and they are coming earlier in the year. Whether it is produced by human activity or natural is to debate.


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#8
Phil

Posted 08 March 2017 - 08:54 PM

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Definitely think there is some sort of climate change as we are having more tornadoes than ever in the middle of the country and they are coming earlier in the year. Whether it is produced by human activity or natural is to debate.


This is not true.

COP21_8.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#9
luminen

Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:34 PM

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This is not true.

COP21_8.png

 

Yup. The media continues to twist recent events to make it seem like it's the worst year ever.

 

Ad nauseum statements such as "Every new year is the worst year ever...!!!" - Seth Boringstein

 

So what if weather does such and such anyway? We can't control it worth a shit, so it's no use getting our collective panties in a bunch. 


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#10
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 March 2017 - 10:25 PM

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Yep, the media lives off of lying and exaggerating things because they know that's what it takes to get people to watch them. We all remember how they said Y2K might be terrible. It's kind of like the game of Survivor where people must lie and deceive to win, which just started its new season BTW today.


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#11
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 09 March 2017 - 03:43 AM

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The statement in reference, from a spokesman for the WWA (which is essentially an activist group) claims the February warmth was "linked" to climate change, without providing any quantitative reasoning, or even a mere statistical regression, which is convenient because most of the warmest winter months in the US on record took place over 70 years ago, during the 1930s and even back in the 19th century, and this February falls within a few standard deviations from the mean, as the other months in question have.

Even ignoring statistical randomness, before making claims regarding attribution, one must eliminate a slew of variables that are known to have been responsible for changes in circulation, including the BDC/equator-pole O^3 gradient, Hadley Cell migration and weakening, reversal of the Walker/Hadley intensity ratio due to super low frequency changes in the longitudinal equatorial Pacific thermal gradient, etc.

They have done none of these things, and instead have opted for a snappy press release designed to generate headlines without any actual science there. Pathetic.

 

I am wondering if the 1930's and periods in the 19th century had low Arctic sea ice extent anywhere to the extent that we have been experiencing in recent years. It just seems that I never see as much data regarding sea ice extent from the past as opposed to the satellite era data going back to 1979. I have seen bits and pieces of information regarding low levels of sea ice in the past, but there has been very little emphasis on it.



#12
snow_wizard

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:17 PM

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Just dumb. I can find a number of years where much of the country had a very early spring. Then of course it has been really cold in the NW.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#13
luminen

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:25 PM

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Just dumb. I can find a number of years where much of the country had a very early spring. Then of course it has been really cold in the NW.

 

And they completely ignore the west on a routine basis unless it's to cover extreme drought/wildfires/torrential rain in California.



#14
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 March 2017 - 05:21 PM

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Spring came early, then they got the biggest snow storm of the winter.



#15
happ

Posted 27 March 2017 - 11:47 AM

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"Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events"  http://www.nature.co...icles/srep45242

 

"A series of persistent, extreme summer weather events in recent years including the 2003 European Heat Wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood/Russian heatwave, 2011 Texas drought and the unprecedented, ongoing drought in California, has led to a continuing discussion in the scientific literature regarding the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the spate of recent weather extremes1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.



#16
Phil

Posted 27 March 2017 - 01:14 PM

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"Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events" http://www.nature.co...icles/srep45242

"A series of persistent, extreme summer weather events in recent years including the 2003 European Heat Wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood/Russian heatwave, 2011 Texas drought and the unprecedented, ongoing drought in California, has led to a continuing discussion in the scientific literature regarding the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the spate of recent weather extremes1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.


Oh give me a break. These supposed "extremes" are statistically pedestrian compared to the floods of 1862 and the great dustbowl of the 1930s, neither of which were "human caused". All of the events mentioned in this paper are well within the bounds of seasonal/subseasonal pattern variability and quasi-resonant feedbacks.

Also, the CA/SW drought, which has likely ended following the new Walker/NPI regime that started in 2016, is a cakewalk compared to the super-drought centered around 1100AD, and some of the early/mid Holocene mega-droughts.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#17
Phil

Posted 27 March 2017 - 01:37 PM

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Oh, and what happened to that early spring? Just a few weeks after this was published, the coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded on Earth (for the month of March) occurred in the Arctic, monthly record lows were smashed across the NE (some records dating back to the 1860s) and a massive blizzard paralyzed PA/NY/New England with 3-5+ feet of snow and hurricane force winds. Oops. :rolleyes:

Mother Nature tends to balance things out with time, simply due to the physics behind the large scale, subseasonal pattern excursions. Extremes beget extremes...the February warmth was caused by a very large EAMT induced AAM exchange that extended the NPAC jet under a +NAM/tight-baratropic PV regime and Indo convective forcing in tandem with IO/dateline subsidence. The severe cold in March cold occurred as that AAM phase state backcycled under the same macroscale boundary state.

Humans can be extremely short sighted. We're at the point where every instance of anomalous cold, snowfall, flooding, heat, and/or drought is blamed on humanity, with some sort of political diatribe attached to it. Pathetic.
  • crf450ish likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"